4/23/2026: Future wildfires may burn less of the American West than expected

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Four firefighters in full gear stand in a shrubby area in front of a conifer forest on fire during the daytime.

Firefighters stand before a wildfire in Wyoming, USA. As climate change dries out the American West, priming it for more wildfire, projections of future burned area vary depending on whether scientists base their estimates more on atmospheric dryness or soil dryness. Credit: United States Forest Service, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program] 

Research roundup: When cities make it rain 

By altering the shape, temperature, and atmospheric stability of the landscapes on which they sit, urban areas have the power to change regional rainfall. Check out the latest research on this topic from AGU journals: 

  • Urbanization in Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City metro area as of 2020 has brought 30% more daily rainfall to the urban center than the landscape would have had without any urbanization. [JGR Atmospheres study] 
  • Global satellite data show that most large cities receive a greater amount of light rain, but less intense heavy rain, than nearby rural areas. [Earth’s Future study] 
  • Heat from Houston, Texas draws moisture from nearby countryside to form taller clouds and trigger stronger, wetter, longer storms over the city than in rural areas. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Featured Research 

Western U.S. wildfire projections may be greatly overestimated, study argues
Previous studies may have overestimated future wildfire-burned area in the Western United States by up to an order of magnitude, a new study claims. Most studies use atmospheric dryness to estimate how big fires will get, since the two have historically correlated well. Soil moisture has also mirrored burned area quite well in the past, but scientists expect it to change far less than atmospheric dryness under climate change, meaning projections from the two will diverge. At 3 degrees Celsius of warming, for instance, projections based on atmospheric dryness estimate the area burned during each 6-month fire season will grow 16 times larger than in the period from 1984 to 2014, while those based on soil moisture show burned area doubling. Recent advances in hydrology, the authors write, indicate the latter will provide the better proxy going forward. [AGU Advances study] 

Past jump in farm burning on the Tibetan Plateau likely sped up glacier melting
Biomass burning shot up fourfold on the western Tibetan Plateau after the 1970s, mostly from the expansion of farming and crop residue burning in the northwestern Indian Peninsula. The finding comes from the first high-resolution history of biomass burning in the region, based on an analysis of charcoal particles in an ice core covering the period from 1935 to 2012. Agricultural burning releases black carbon, which can settle on Tibetan glaciers in a dark layer that absorbs sunlight, likely making those glaciers melt faster. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Carbonate weathering projected to sequester up to 25% more carbon by 2100
Carbonate weathering, a natural process in which worn-down rocks react with water and carbon dioxide to lock away atmospheric CO2 and help regulate the global climate, sequestered 127 million tons of carbon per year from 1950 to 2014 — about 3.7% of what the world’s forests sequester. Compared to that period, scientists project, this global carbon sink will increase roughly 14% to 25% by 2100. That’s partly because at altitudes above 3,000 meters, snow and glaciers melting from climate warming provide more water and plant growth, both of which aid in weathering. Below that elevation, however, warming hinders the weathering process instead. [Earth’s Future study] 

Metals and rippled rocks on Mars hint at an ancient lake friendly to life
In the Gale Crater on Mars in late 2022, NASA’s Curiosity rover encountered the largest deposit of iron, zinc, and manganese ever found together in the crater. The metals lay within preserved ripples in the rock, a shape indicating that a broad, shallow lake once filled that area — even though the rocks were deposited during a time when Mars’ climate was turning drier and colder. In Earth’s lakes, metal-rich deposits like this form via chemical reactions almost always in the presence of microbial life, suggesting that this lake may have provided favorable conditions for Martian life. [Los Alamos National Laboratory press release][JGR Planets study] 

Europe’s baby steps away from rising seas
In 1859, the Dutch king forced evacuation from Schokland, an island community struggling with damaging floods caused by subsidence. Stone embankments could not hold back storm surge from the sea and the defenses became too expensive to maintain. Since then, retreat has remained less popular than engineered defenses in the battle against rising sea levels in Europe, according to a new study that reviewed 44 proposed or complete managed retreat projects in 11 European countries (map), relocating 8,700 households. Most projects are small, disconnected from broader climate adaptation planning and reactive to devastating flooding rather than proactive. Because modern governments prefer persuasion over force, they will need adequate and transparent compensation, early community buy-in and trusted local leaders to make this adaptation strategy effective. [Earth’s Future study]  

Mediterranean mussel farming could collapse by 2050
New experiments suggest that ocean warming and acidification are on track to slash both oyster and mussel farming yields. [Eos research spotlight][Earth’s Future study] 

Navigating the past with ancient stone compass needles
The emerging field of magnetic microscopy allows scientists to reconstruct ancient magnetic fields from individual magnetic particles. A new study evaluates the accuracy of the technique. [Eos research spotlight][JGR Solid Earth study] 

Amazon River breezes mimic pollution in clouds
Natural river breezes create clouds over the Amazon that mimic the signs of pollution, complicating climate impact assessments. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

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4/16/2026: Environmental recovery in Mongolia improves air quality across East Asia

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A massive dust storm engulfing a swath of eastern Asia, as seen from space, with the curve of the planet visible against the backdrop of space in the background

A massive dust storm over the Gobi Desert, which spans southern Mongolia and northern China. Dust kicked up in Mongolia accounts for a significant portion of dust pollution in northern and northeastern China, but declining desertification in Mongolia has improved air quality beyond its borders over the past 20 years. Credit: NASA, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AGU 2026 Journalism Awards call for nominations
AGU is now accepting nominations for its 2026 Journalism Awards, which honor outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences published in 2025. Nominate your or your peers’ best work by Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [press release and submission links] 

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program] 

Featured Research 

Environmental recovery in Mongolia improves air quality across East Asia
Natural environmental recovery in Mongolia from 2005 to 2023, marked by a drop in desertification across most of the country, reduced national dust emissions by roughly 23%. Because desertification-fueled dust storms in Mongolia impact air quality and health for hundreds of millions of people across East Asia, the improvement had an international ripple effect, cutting dust pollution in North and Northeast China by 5.4% and 13.3%, respectively. Intentional land restoration could have even greater region-wide benefits: researchers estimate that restoration actions in Mongolia, akin to those in China’s Inner Mongolia, could have lowered dust pollution in Northeast China by over 18% during the same period. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Reaching carbon neutrality earlier cuts humid heatwave health risks significantly
Cutting net human carbon emissions to zero by mid-century could reduce the global health risk from humid heat stress by 45%, compared to a scenario in which emissions peak around mid-century but don’t reach net zero by 2100. It would also lower the disparity in risk between low- and high-income countries by over 78%. The earlier humanity achieves carbon neutrality, the more risk it averts: getting there by the 2050s rather than the 2070s, for instance, reduces risk in low-income countries by over 35%. Humid heatwaves present greater danger than either heat or humidity separately, especially for outdoor laborers with limited access to medical services. [Earth’s Future study] 

Water from rocket exhaust might stick around on the moon longer than thought
Water from rocket exhaust may bind to grains of lunar soil, causing it to take longer to escape back into space than scientists previously thought, according to a new study based on data from the Chang’e-5 and Chang’e-6 lander missions. Scientists need to know how water moves on the moon in order to develop adequate planetary protection measures. Depending on how they move, water and other substances from spacecraft could contaminate future research sites at the moon’s poles, where ice may preserve clues about the history of the solar system. [JGR Planets study] 

Uranus’ faint, thin outer rings born of ice and mystery
Unlike Saturn’s spectacular rings, Uranus’ are dark and difficult to observe — particularly the outermost pair, discovered in 2005. New observations from James Webb Space Telescope combined with older data from Hubble Space Telescope and Keck Observatory in Hawaii find tiny icy grains make up the blue μ ring created by micrometeorite impacts on the planet’s small moon, Mab. The icy composition of the μ ring confirms that Mab is mostly made of water-ice. The authors infer that the dusty, red v ring, meanwhile, must have resulted from collisions between thus-far-invisible, organics-rich rocky bodies orbiting between some of Uranus’ 14 known moons. [JGR Planets study] [Keck Observatory press release] 

South Carolina communities take disaster risk reduction into their own hands
A pilot program to improve disaster resilience in South Carolinian communities facing disproportionate exposure to environmental hazards — the first of its kind in the U.S. — met with success, according to a report by researchers at institutions involved in it. The EJ Strong Program provided training sessions in disaster risk reduction to over 110 people from those communities between 2020 and 2024, 46 of whom received certificates at the end. The program also produced an online course, an app, an emergency food access map, and public school materials all focused on disaster risk reduction, plus air quality and flood monitoring systems and funding for disaster resilience projects in vulnerable communities. As heatwaves, floods, sea level rise, and public health crises hit disadvantaged communities the hardest, community-led disaster management can give them more agency over how to manage the risks they face. [GeoHealth study] 

Conservation practices on farms can lower flood risk and boost water quality
Nature-based solutions for agricultural conservation, such as winter cover cropping, have boomed over the past 30 years in Shell Creek, Nebraska as local stakeholders and government agencies have worked together to improve watershed management. In a recent study, researchers reported that this trend likely contributed to healthier winter vegetation, less frequent and intense flooding and, to a lesser extent, better water quality. The example of Shell Creek indicates that conservation practices can help make agricultural water systems more sustainable, they wrote. [Water Resources Research study] 

Fixing Baltimore’s unequal weather data coverage
A new partnership between researchers and community members created a comprehensive network of weather stations across underserved areas of the city. [Eos research spotlight][Community Science study] 

Glaciers may flow into the ocean more quickly than we think
New research found that adjusting a key model variable may give more accurate predictions of glacial retreat. [Eos research highlight][AGU Advances study] 

An ancient landscape beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
Geophysical observations of the subglacial topography of Coats Land reveal a landscape formed by tectonics and fluvial erosion that influenced the formation of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. [Eos editors’ highlight][JGR Earth Surface study] 

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4-9-2026: Fluffy “snow” on Titan’s plains

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Image on a black background of an orange moon, centered) in front of a thin horizontal line of rings and a thin, yellow slice of Saturn to the right. The shadow of the rings is cast on the lower hemisphere of the planet.

A smoggy orange atmosphere hides the surface Titan in this true color image of the moon passing in front of Saturn and its rings, captured by NASA’s Cassini spacecraft. It is the only moon in our solar system with a thick atmosphere and an earthlike liquid cycle. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute

AGU News

AGU 2026 Journalism Awards call for nominations
AGU is now accepting nominations for its 2026 Journalism Awards, which honor outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences published in 2025. Nominate your or your peers’ best work by Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [press release and submission links]

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program]

Featured Research

Fluffy snow blankets the plains of Saturn’s weird moon Titan
Two layers of organic material smooth Titan’s vast, monotonous plains new research finds: a thin, light top cover analogous to fluffy snow overlays rougher, denser ground. The fluff most likely snowed down out of the moon’s atmospheric haze of methane and more complex carbon-based molecules. Wind and occasional hydrocarbon rain may compact the fluffy snow creating the rougher underlayer. [JGR Planets study]

Heat kills more Texans than officially reported
Most heat-related deaths in the Lone Star State happen on regular hot summer days, rather than during extreme heat waves, a new study finds. State records underestimate heat related deaths, underlining the need for better tracking and protection programs as Texas anticipates hotter years ahead. [GeoHealth study]

China’s restive boundary rivers give, and take away
Since 1987, more than 100 islands have formed, dissolved or merged with the banks of the many rivers flowing on China’s borders. Although treaties signed between China and its neighboring countries establish the legal fixity of national boundaries, the rivers are not so compliant. Erosion and deposition have shifted riverbanks. Water diversion, wetland conversions, dam construction and other human interventions have influenced the changes in flow, seasonality, and wandering of the rivers. A new study surveys who won and lost ground in their movements over the last three decades. [Earth’s Future study]

Climate change reaches down to the ocean deeps
The surface of Earth’s oceans absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon from the atmosphere, buffering the effects of climate change. A stable water layer 200 to 1,000 meters deep called the pycnocline acts as a barrier limiting vertical mixing between the surface and dense, cold, nutrient-rich-water below. But new research finds patterns of change at the surface are penetrating down through the pycnocline, suggesting the ocean’s interior is more susceptible to climate change than oceanographers have assumed, potentially speeding ocean deoxygenation and impacting marine ecosystems. [AGU Advances study]

New study shakes up established predictions for changing rainfall in the tropics
How will a changing climate will alter rainfall patterns? As surface temperatures rise, the tropical Pacific may experience unexpected drying. On very large scales, wet places are expected to get wetter and dry places drier, shrinking wet regions in the tropics but intensifying rain within them. This has been well-studied in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, where moist air rises near the equator and circles back down in the subtropics. But the east-west Pacific Walker circulation, which rises in the western topical pacific around the Maritime Continent and descends near northern South America, may produce the opposite pattern as temperatures rise and circulation slows, new modeling predicts, decreasing mean rainfall within expanded rainy regions. [AGU Advances study] [NOAA explains Walker circulation and ENSO]

New noise detection enforces Radio Quiet Zones — for science
Sensitive radio telescopes need quiet on Earth to hear the music of the cosmos. TranQuiL is a groundbreaking system that revolutionizes Radio Quiet Zone enforcement by enabling long-range detection and precise localization of Wi-Fi and Bluetooth interference with unparalleled accuracy. [Eos editors’ highlight] [Radio Science study]

4/2/2026: As Earth’s climate warms, when it rains, it pours

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Two people on a moped in a flooded city street during a downpour at night

As climate change continues, more regions are receiving a greater share of their total rainfall through extreme rain events. Among other impacts, this can stress food and economic security in areas that rely on rainfed agriculture. Credit: qimono, Pixabay

AGU News 

AGU 2026 Journalism Awards call for nominations 

AGU is now accepting nominations for its 2026 Journalism Awards, which honor outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences published in 2025. Nominate your or your peers’ best work by Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [press release and submission links] 

Attend the 2026 Astrobiology Science Conference in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [AbSciCon home] [program] 

Lunar research roundup 

With Artemis II’s crew set to begin their outbound lunar transit tonight, check out the latest research on Earth’s Moon from AGU journals: 

  • Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis cracks open “new” 50-year-old lunar samples from NASA’s collection [JGR Planets special collection][introduction] 
  • Looking for a sunny spot near cold pits of darkness: where to land on the south pole of the Moon [JGR Planets study] 
  • How to bring a snowball souvenir back from space: the challenge of icy sample return begins with Artemis [Geophysical Research Letters study]  
  • Day-night temperatures for scientific sightseeing locations on the Moon [Earth and Space Science study] 
  • Astronauts could listen for moonquakes with fiber optic cables [Earth and Space Science study] 
  • Lunar spacecraft exhaust could obscure clues to origins of life [press release][JGR Planets study] 

Featured Research 

As the climate warms, more of Earth’s rainfall arrives via extreme rain events 
Should Earth warm by four degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels, much its land area could see a 15% to 20% increase in the fraction of its rain that comes from extreme rain events. The African Sahel, the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and northern Australia would rank among the most affected regions, according to new climate model projections. More than half of global croplands could suffer as a result, and low-income countries reliant on rainfed agriculture would be especially hard-pressed to maintain food security and economic stability. The finding highlights the need to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, the researchers wrote, especially as many regions are already seeing extreme rain dominate their total annual rainfall even faster than models predict. [Water Resources Research study]  

Meteorites from Earth or Mars could theoretically seed life on the clouds of Venus 
Chunks of rock knocked loose from Earth or Mars (if life existed there) could, in theory, fly through space and deliver life to the clouds of Venus, according to recent model simulations. Small amounts of the rock could survive entering Venus’ atmosphere while still carrying living cells, scattering in fragments tiny enough to float in the clouds. Researchers estimate this process could theoretically send about 100 cells to Venus’s clouds every Earth-year. What happens after that remains unclear: although too little water exists in the Venusian sky to support Earthly life, the pressures and temperatures there resemble those on Earth’s surface, making it a place of interest to scientists studying the possibility of extraterrestrial life. [JGR Planets study]  

Global wheat yields take a hit from rising extreme heat-drought combos 
Simultaneous extreme heat and drought, on the rise due to human-driven climate change, is hurting global wheat yields. For over 70% of the world’s wheat-growing area, when these hot-dry combos persist for more than 10% of the growing season, yields drop by over 6%, on average. Canada, Australia, and Central Asia suffer the most severe impacts, while heavily irrigated regions like China and India are less affected. The findings come from a recent study including analysis of meteorological and soil data from 1981 to 2020. Heat and drought can hinder wheat production more in tandem than when they occur separately, the researchers wrote. [Earth’s Future study]  

Air pollution disproportionately affects Cape Town’s vulnerable communities 
Over 40% of the population of Cape Town, South Africa, lives in areas at high or very high risk for air pollution, mostly in informal settlements and historically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Researchers arrived at the result after comparing social vulnerability data with satellite data on air quality, an approach that allowed them to consider areas lacking traditional air quality monitors. The finding highlights the need to consider social factors and prioritize high-risk areas when addressing air pollution, the team wrote: improving housing and healthcare access in socially vulnerable communities, for instance, could mitigate adverse impacts. [GeoHealth study]  

Asia’s heat-flood combo of 2022 unlikely without human-driven climate change 
An extreme weather combination that hit Asia in the summer of 2022, consisting of simultaneous floods in Pakistan and heatwaves in the Yangtze River Basin, likely wouldn’t have happened without the influence of human-driven climate change. Researchers compared the atmospheric conditions of 2022 against those during a similar combined weather event in 2010 that inflicted significant socioeconomic impacts in the same regions. They found that the 2022 event was essentially a version of its 2010 counterpart, but amplified by warming. In a future scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, they estimated, events like that of 2022 could become 57 to 326 times more probable by the last 30 years of this century. [Water Resources Research study]  

What’s under the water matters
The fate of barrier islands in presence of sea level rise depends on their underwater shape. [Eos editors’ highlight][JGR Earth Surface study] 

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3/26/2026: Super-wet winters may recharge western U.S. mountains’ groundwater

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A massive, snowy mountain at sunset, wreathed in clouds and towering over smaller, tree-covered mountains below

Mount Rainier in Washington state. The Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges in the western U.S. are losing groundwater, but new research suggests short, extreme bursts of winter precipitation may help them recover groundwater lost during long dry spells. Credit: U.S. National Park Service, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

Earth’s Future expands scope
AGU’s popular journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants is adding three new thematic areas: climate impacts, communities and resilience, and sustainable resource systems. Learn more about the research directions these topics encompass from the new deputy editors. [Eos editors’ vox][Earth’s Future editorial] 

Featured Research 

Super-wet winters can recharge western U.S. mountains’ groundwater
In the mountains of the western U.S., extremely wet winters can replenish groundwater enough to make up for multiple years of loss. This helps these systems quickly bounce back to above-normal levels after historical lows, according to a new study using satellite measurements of groundwater in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges. The mountains release groundwater at a steady rate, the researchers wrote, meaning they can store the extra water from a super rainy season for at least a year rather than letting it flush through them rapidly. For communities and ecosystems around these mountains, groundwater is critical: as severe multi-year droughts have recurred, sharp groundwater declines have accounted for over 90% of the regions’ total water loss over the past 20 years. Scientists predict extremely wet winters to get more frequent and intense, which may help offset those losses as the regional climate gets drier. [Water Resources Research study] 

Human emissions amplified Asia’s extreme 2024 heat-flood combo
In the spring of 2024, northwestern central Asia took a double-whammy of extreme weather: severe flooding from record-breaking rainfall displaced over 100,000 people, while a subsequent heatwave cranked the average 7-day maximum temperature to nearly six degrees Celsius above normal. Although natural forces like La Niña and sea surface temperature patterns played a significant role, researchers reported, warming from greenhouse gases amplified the effect, making the extreme combo eight times more probable. A scenario of moderate continued greenhouse gas emissions could raise the risk of a similar event by more than 22 times by the end of the century, according to observational data and climate model simulations. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Earth’s oldest trees offer a history of cold snaps at sub-seasonal resolution
Using tree ring cores from 83 bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva), the longest-lived tree species on the planet, in the White Mountains of California, researchers have built a 1,100-year climate record spanning 900 to 2014 C.E. The record is the longest yet created based on “blue rings,” microscopic bands within tree rings where sudden, unseasonable cold prevented cells from fully lignifying, or becoming rigid and woody. These subtle features document abrupt cooling events too brief for traditional tree-ring studies to detect, including cold snaps induced by volcanic eruptions blocking sunlight. The detailed history may help scientists studying short-term cold extremes today, especially as climate change is projected to induce more late-spring frosts in some parts of the world, stressing crops and forests. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Full force of polar warming may be masked in short term, surging centuries later
The pace of human-driven warming at Earth’s poles may vary in the short term before flaring up centuries down the road, according to climate simulations comparing different rates of CO2 increase leading to the same final atmospheric concentration. The poles are already warming more than the global average, a phenomenon called polar amplification. This effect may dominate the Arctic early on, but if CO2 concentrations consistently climb faster than 0.5% per year, changes in global ocean circulation and heat transport could cause Arctic amplification to fade — only to return after several centuries. Regardless of the rate of CO2 increase, the models showed amplified warming in the Antarctic emerging more gradually, then surging more than 1,000 years after CO2 concentrations stabilize as heat stored deep in the ocean rises to the surface. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Mining and industry pollute a vital Colombian river with heavy metals
Concentrations of mercury, cadmium, and nickel in the Sinú River often rise significantly above baseline levels scientists frequently use to evaluate trace element pollution in soils. Soil samples collected at various depths during the rainy and dry seasons of 2021 along a stretch of the Sinú — a critical river supplying water for irrigation and everyday use to communities in northern Colombia — revealed concentrations exceeding those baselines by up to five times, although lead, zinc, and chromium levels stayed below the threshold. The pollution likely stems from mining, agricultural and industrial activities in the area that discharge the hazardous metals into the environment, the researchers wrote, highlighting the need for better environmental monitoring and management. [GeoHealth study] 

Stealth superstorms reveal lightning on Jupiter: beyond the superbolt 
On the gas giant, the strength and frequency of lightning appear to be more diverse than previously thought. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

The multi-faceted water footprint of data centers
Data centers powering artificial intelligence consume significant amounts of water, highlighting the need for greater transparency regarding water use in both existing and planned facilities.  [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

Trees shed their leaves to adapt to droughts
The browning or loss of tree leaves that can be observed during droughts may be a coping mechanism to deal with dry circumstances by avoiding additional water stress. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

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3/19/2026: Earth’s desert area is shrinking

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sunset over a broad, flat desert landscape dotted with shrubs and grasses

Sunrise in the Kalahari Desert in Namibia. Southern Africa is among the regions experiencing a contraction of its desert area, contributing to a global trend. Credit: Giles Laurent, Wikimedia Commons


AGU News 

Ignoring science weakens court decisions: Reinstate climate science in the Federal Judicial Center’s reference manual
AGU responds to the recent removal of a chapter on climate science from the 2025 4th edition of the Federal Judicial Center’s Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, decrying the decision amid the need for judges and legal professionals to have access to clear, credible scientific guidance when evaluating cases involving climate evidence. [From the Prow]

Featured Research

Earth’s total desert area shrank 900,000 square kilometers in the past 40 years
The first map of our planet’s desert area over time, built from 40 years of high-resolution satellite imagery, reveals Earth has lost roughly 22,700 square kilometers of desert per year from 1985 to 2024. That adds up to about 900,000 square kilometers — roughly the size of Venezuela, or 3.6% of the average global desert area over those 40 years. The trend was concentrated in Australia, South Africa and east and central Asia, although deserts have expanded in North Africa, North and South America, and southwest Asia. The researchers attribute the decline to a combination of human influence, such as ecological engineering boosting plant growth in east Asia, and episodic pulses of extra water availability promoting self-sustaining plant growth in certain regions. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

By 2067, Thwaites Glacier may lose ice as fast as all of Antarctica does today
Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier could be losing 180 to 200 billion tons of ice per year by 2067, about as much as the entire continent currently loses each year. The projection comes from computer models trained on satellite observations of changes in the height of the glacier’s surface from 2004 to 2017. Thwaites is already losing ice five times faster than in the 1990s and, if it collapsed entirely, could raise global sea levels over two feet all on its own. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Rising heat hurts labor productivity, economic development of agricultural nations
By 2095, the global economy may lose 841 billion to over 1.8 trillion hours of labor per year due to worker heat stress from climate change, depending on whether society takes a low- or high-emissions pathway. That’s equivalent to roughly five to ten percent of daylight working time, a new study finds. In terms of percentage of daytime work hours, low-income countries may lose 2.5 to 3.3 times more productivity than high-income nations due to their greater reliance on agricultural labor that exposes workers to heat — especially in tropical regions, where scientist expect heat exposure rise the most. This worsens global economic inequality and slows the economic development of low-income countries, the researchers write. [GeoHealth study]

Erratic swings in natural water systems reveal the Amazon’s increasing fragility
Most of the Amazon basin is seeing bigger swings in rainfall, river flow, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration, with extreme conditions lasting longer when they occur, according to an analysis of hydrological data across the region mostly spanning back to the late 1970s and early ‘80s. This erratic behavior means the Amazon’s water systems take longer to recover from disturbance. When El Niño events and warm Atlantic waters coincide with deforestation and fires to dry and heat the land, recovery slows even more, partly explaining the record-breaking Amazonian drought in 2023 and 2024 that lasted well past the peak of El Niño. The trend puts the region’s forests, climate, and water security at greater risk, the researchers wrote, highlighting the need to cut down on deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions and to control fire. [Water Resources Research study]

Californians are getting less time to recover from wildfire smoke
Between 2006 and 2010, the average California census tract saw two or three smoke waves, defined as two or more smoky days in a row. Between 2016 and 2020, it saw five — an 85% increase — with the average wave lasting four and a half days, nearly a full day longer than in the earlier period. The average time between smoke waves also shortened from 208 days to 76 days. Altogether, this leaves Californians less time to recover between smoke events. Recovery periods have dropped the most steeply in communities with high proportions of racial minorities, low incomes, and single female households. [GeoHealth study]

Global observations reveal rapid reorganization of ocean nutrients
Data reveal that changes in nutrient levels vary depending on depth and distance from shore—and that these changes are happening more quickly than scientists realized. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]

Tides generate detectable electrical signals in coastal aquifers
Spontaneous potentials show possibility for monitoring coastal saltwater intrusion. [Eos editors’ highlight][JGR Solid Earth study]

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3/12/2026: Sea level rise squeezes turtle nesting beaches

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A closeup of a sea turtle in profile resting on a sandy beach

A female green sea turtle on Ascension Island, home to some of the world’s most important sea turtle nesting beaches. Four major nesting beaches around the world, including one on Ascension Island, are eroding over time as sea level rises, and there’s not always space for turtles to move further inland. Credit: Stefan Hunt, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AGU letter to NSF on the proposed restructuring of NCAR
For more than six decades, National Center for Atmospheric Research has been a cornerstone of U.S. scientific leadership — advancing weather prediction, deepening understanding of the Earth system and training generations of scientists. In our response, AGU raises serious concerns about the assumptions behind dismantling such an integrated institution and emphasizes the critical role NCAR plays in protecting lives, supporting major economic sectors and advancing scientific discovery. [letter] 

The state of ocean science: politics, pressure, and what comes next
What’s next for ocean science amid funding cuts and growing demand for research? Hear Janice Lachance, CEO of AGU, discuss the state of ocean science in a special episode of the SAMS Ocean Explorer podcast, recorded at the 2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting in Glasgow. [podcast] [related press briefing with AGU President Brandon Jones] 

Featured Research 

Sea level rise squeezes turtle nesting beaches
Rising seas and human development are squeezing critical sea turtle nesting sites.
A study of nine of the most important sea turtle nesting beaches around the globe found four show long-term erosion trends since 1980, losing nearly a meter a year in at least one place. Three of those sites also offer little space for turtles to nest further inland, putting that habitat especially at risk from rising seas. Researchers using satellite images, computer models, and coastal data to study these beaches’ shoreline movement over time noted that sea level rise does not affect them all evenly: in fact, three other beaches are widening, at a long-term trend of up to two meters per year in one location. The results may help guide more effective conservation, the team wrote. [Earth’s Future study] 

With rivers dammed, estuaries lose their power to slow climate change
Since the Xiaolangdi Reservoir dammed China’s Yellow River in 1999, the amount of sediment reaching the river’s estuary has fallen nearly 90%, according to a new study drawing on data from 1984 to 2023. Consequently, the estuary’s carbon content and carbon burial rates have dropped 46% and 58%, respectively.  River estuaries bury 70% to 90% of the globe’s marine organic carbon, helping to slow climate change, but damming has weakened that ability in major rivers including the Mekong, Mississippi, and Nile. Global dam-building may have cut estuaries’ carbon burial rates by over 33%, the researchers estimate, losing over 23 million metric tons of carbon burial per year. [Earth’s Future study] 

Climate change may be making days slightly longer
Climatic changes can affect the length of Earth’s days by forming and melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, altering sea level and redistributing the planet’s water mass enough to change its rotation speed. To reveal how sea level changes have altered day length since the late Pliocene, researchers combined prehistoric climate data with a deep learning model. Human-driven climate change, they found, may be lengthening days at 1 to 1.5 milliseconds per century, depending on either a low- or high-emissions scenario this century. That may sound small, and the tidal influence of the moon still has a much stronger impact on day length. Still, it’s one of the fastest climate-induced rates of change in the past 3.6 million years and could impact activities like spacecraft navigation that require precise timekeeping or knowledge of Earth’s rotation, the researchers noted. [JGR Solid Earth study]

Daily satellite data on groundwater, ice melt and more may arrive in 2030s
Merging the observations of five existing and upcoming gravity satellite missions from Europe, China, and the U.S. may provide daily observations of water resources, ice melt, and earthquake impacts by the early 2030s, an unprecedented improvement over the monthly data currently provided by individual missions. New simulations indicate this “hybrid gravity satellite ensemble” would significantly boost scientists’ understanding of the amount of water stored in river basins, offering near-real-time tracking of groundwater depletion and enabling better water management. Scientists could also more accurately monitor the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, allowing for better tracking of sea level rise, as well as the amount of ground displaced by earthquakes. [Earth’s Future study] 

Ross Sea may step up its carbon storage game as Antarctic ice melts
The eastern Ross Sea had among the highest dissolved organic carbon concentrations in Antarctic waters during extremely low sea ice conditions in 2023, according to a new study. The low sea ice enabled researchers to access the usually unreachable area, where they also recorded high iron concentrations and enhanced biological production. Iron-rich runoff from melting glaciers may have boosted microbial activity in the eastern Ross Sea, they wrote, producing organic carbon as a byproduct which then accumulated as water circulation patterns trapped it in place. As human-driven climate change fuels more glacial ice melt, the Ross Sea may emerge as a significant Antarctic carbon sink, though the researchers also emphasized the negative impacts of ice melt on ecosystems, sea level rise, and ocean circulation. [Global Biogeochemical Cycles study] 

The “wet-gets-wetter” response to climate change does not always apply
While the precipitation response to a warming climate is often stated as “wet gets wetter,” this response does not apply to east-west overturning circulations like the Pacific Walker circulation. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

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3/5/2026: Arctic ice melt triggers dual heatwaves continents away

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People walking down a city street in Italy on a hot, sunny day with mist hanging in the air

Sprays of mist cool pedestrians during a heatwave in Florence, Italy. Due to a domino chain of atmospheric connections, Arctic ice loss from human-driven climate change may be triggering heatwaves as far away as East Asia, new research indicates. Credit: Richard Vanlerberghe, Unsplash

Featured Research 

Arctic ice melt triggers heatwaves in Europe and East Asia
Heatwaves are simultaneously striking Europe and eastern Asia more frequently due to declining ice in the Barents Sea, where spring ice loss has increasingly persisted through summers since 2000. Researchers found these longer seasonal ice lows set off a domino effect, combining with land-atmosphere interactions to trigger unusual atmospheric circulation over northwestern Europe. This, in turn, sends high pressure rippling into East Asia, inducing similar atmospheric anomalies there and priming both regions for heatwaves. As human-driven warming disproportionately affects the Arctic, the study shows, warming there can impact crops, ecosystems, public health, and economies across continents. Understanding these links could help improve early warning systems for extreme weather, the authors noted. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Evidence of human impact on atmospheric temperature counters U.S. federal report
A 2025 review of the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions by the U.S. Department of Energy falsely asserted that changes in atmospheric temperature in recent decades do not bear the fingerprints of human influence in ways climate models expect, researchers state in a new paper. Evidence shows that human-induced increases in atmospheric CO2 and depletion of ozone have altered the atmosphere’s thermal structure, warming its lowest layer, the troposphere, while generally cooling the stratosphere just above. Climate models have predicted these effects for over 50 years, the researchers wrote, and temperature data from satellites confirms our best current model estimates with high confidence. [AGU Advances commentary][U.S. Department of Energy report] 

Asian forests struggle to maintain microclimates amid canopy loss and warming
By 2050, peak daytime temperatures even on the shady floors of southeast Asian forests will rise by 1.4 to 2.1 degrees Celsius, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions and compared to a baseline period of 1984 to 2014, a new study predicts. Researchers used ground-level temperature readings, satellite data, and future climate projections to estimate changes for 46 forests in Southeast Asia, where deforestation is rapid. Canopy loss reduces shade cover, eliminating the previously cool, moist microclimates below and piling heat stress on sensitive species living there. Conservation efforts should target forest areas most capable of maintaining these microclimates, the team wrote. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

In Central Asia drylands, solar arrays boost ecosystem health
As of 2023, photovoltaic installations occupied 444 square kilometers of Central Asia, mostly in barren lands and grasslands. According to new research using satellite imagery to map these power plants’ proliferation from 2010 to 2023, the panels’ presence generally promotes plant growth, conserves soil moisture, moderates temperature swings, and reduces soil saltiness. As dryland solar power booms due to abundant sunlight and few land-use conflicts, researchers wrote, strategically siting solar arrays could help improve ecological resilience and restoration while generating clean energy at the same time. [Earth’s Future study] 

Dammed, urbanized rivers emit more planet-warming methane
Stretches of river impacted by urbanization and damming emitted 1.7 to 2.1 times more methane than less-disturbed upper reaches, according to new research of 747 kilometers of a river in northern China during late summer. Slower streamflow and sewage input in these areas cause fine sediment and nutrients to build up, oxygen to deplete, and methane-making microbes to proliferate. The result highlights the role humans play in controlling methane emissions along human-disturbed rivers, which scientists recognize as a significant source of the planet-warming gas in the atmosphere, the researchers wrote. [JGR Biogeosciences study] 

Drought drove the Amazon’s 2023 switch to a carbon source
The change was caused by thirsty vegetation taking up less carbon than normal, not by the year’s extended fire season, new research shows. [Eos research spotlight][Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

Boomerang earthquakes don’t need complex faults
New simulations show earthquakes can reverse direction within seconds on simple, uniform faults, suggesting back-propagating subevents are more common than previously thought. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study]

Satellite view of the California wildfires of January 2025
Satellite observations of the southern California wildfires of 2025 reveal that almost all the burned areas were reached by fire within 24 hours, and wildfires in residential areas burned more intensely than nearby natural vegetation fires at night. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

Future hotspots of hazardous rivers in the atmosphere
Atmospheric rivers can produce heavy precipitation and associated hazards worldwide. A new study identifies regions where these hazards have already, and will further, increase with global heating. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

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2/26/2026: Human actions intensify flood risk around the globe

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Muddy water flooding over the banks of a river and inundating a road in a wide, flat landscape dotted with tree and shrubs, seen from the air.

Flooding of the Burke River in Queensland, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Trevor in 2019. New research projects that up to 70% of Earth’s land will face worsened flood risks as human-driven climate change continues. Credit: John Robert McPherson, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AGU and global partners announce platform to advance responsible governance of solar geoengineering research
As interest in solar geoengineering research grows, a group of international scientific, policy, and civil society organizations today announced a new platform designed to bring clarity, consistency, and public accountability to how this research is governed. [press release] [Solar Geoengineering Research Governance Platform] 

Featured Research 

Human actions intensify flood risk around the globe
Under human-induced global warming of 1.5 to three degrees Celsius, 60% to 70% of Earth’s land surface will likely face rising flood risks, especially in tropical regions. The increase comes mostly in the form of larger floods, though floods also become 10% more probable, on global average, under two degrees of warming than under 1.5. Near hydrological basins, researchers said, up to 88% of the increase in risk would not occur without human-driven climate change and past water and land management. By 2065, they project, the influence of human activities on flood risk will become apparent across nearly 40% of global land area. The team came to these results using model simulations of river discharge and climate impacts, aiming to account for human land and water management more than climate models typically do. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Minnesota winters may warm up to 12 degrees Fahrenheit this century
Winters in Minnesota may become up to 12.6 degrees Fahrenheit hotter over the course of this century, with summers warming up to 7.2 degrees. The projections draw from global climate models combined with data on the climate interactions of more than 60 of the U.S. state’s lakes. Researchers also project up to 70 and 55 fewer days per year with lake ice and snow cover, respectively, with winter snow depth thinning by over 12 centimeters and lake ice shrinking by over half on deeper lakes. Precipitation will likely fall less often — especially during mid-to-late summer, Minnesota’s peak growing season — but more intensely when it does occur. As human-driven climate change disproportionately affects high latitudes, detailed projections like these can inform decisions about agriculture, infrastructure, and water resources, the team wrote. [Water Resources Research study] 

Hydropower dries up Swedish river habitat, but strategic flow release could help
An analysis of nearly 1,000 Swedish “bypassed reaches” — river segments drained mostly dry by diversions to hydropower plants — documents over 1,250 kilometers of lost habitat where fast-flowing riffles, rapids and waterfalls once supported specialized plants and animals. Regulations guarantee some minimum flow released back into only about a quarter of these dry stretches, and in 88% of those, the amount is too low to support fish that need strong currents. Researchers found the bypassed reaches often occupy key positions in river networks, disrupting broader movements of water, nutrients, and species. Placing minimum water discharges on high-priority reaches in Sweden and beyond, they wrote, could improve ecological health and biodiversity for thousands of kilometers of river while still allowing for hydropower. [Water Resources Research study] 

Earth’s energy budget deeper in the red than forecast, even considering warming
Under global warming, more energy enters Earth’s climate system (via the sun’s rays, for instance) than leaves it, fueling a planetary energy imbalance that has climbed rapidly since 2010. Yet as of 2024, this imbalance has swelled even more than most models expect global warming to cause. Researchers realized this after teasing out the portion of the imbalance expected due to global warming from the portion driven by other factors, using satellite measurements and temperature records from Earth’s surface. The discrepancy’s exact cause remains unclear, they wrote, but the results may indicate a growing rift between modeled expectations and real-world measurements of the energy imbalance. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Holes drilled for carbon storage grow over time, potentially enhancing storage
An emerging strategy for mitigating climate change is to pump water containing carbon dioxide into boreholes in peridotite rocks, prompting a mineral-forming reaction that locks the planet-warming carbon away. Researchers studying two such boreholes in Oman discovered that, even over two years after drilling, four new clusters of fractures formed in the rock after heavy rainfall raised water pressure in the boreholes. The team detected the fractures using hydrophones, finding that they grew slowly downwards for over 200 meters, likely driven by water moving into them as they formed. This process could create new pathways for fluids to reach fresh rock, potentially improving the carbon storage of the system, the researchers wrote. [JGR Solid Earth study] 

New method could improve U.S. forecasting of West Nile virus
An innovative model uses regional climate data and records of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease to outperform existing forecasts, potentially helping communities prepare. [Eos research spotlight][GeoHealth study] 

Why more rain doesn’t mean more erosion in mountains
Erosion in mountain-basin systems driven by long-period climate variations is buffered by an erosion saturation effect, which weakens peak erosion and leads to reduced sediment flux. [Eos editors’ highlight][JGR Earth Surface study] 

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2/19/26: Beachgoer bacterial infections rise with Climate Change on the US East Coast

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A crowd of people on a beach in Massachusetts, United States.

A crowded day at Skaket Beach in Orleans, Massachusetts, U.S. As climate change warms sea surface temperatures along the U.S. East Coast, beachgoers face worsening risk of infection by heat-loving, marine Vibrio bacteria, especially on northern coastlines. Credit: DimiTalen

AGU News 

AGU Denounces Trump Administration’s Repeal of the EPA Endangerment Finding
AGU President Brandon Jones released a statement today on the Trump Administration’s repeal of the EPA Endangerment Finding, calling it a reckless, senseless decision with global implications for human well-being and the environment. Read more: [From the Prow] 

Press registration is open for the 2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting in Glasgow, Scotland
Staff, freelance and student journalists, press officers and institutional writers are eligible to apply for complimentary press registration for the conference, which will convene 22-27 February. [media advisory][OSM26 Press][eligibility guidelines][preview conference hotels]  

Featured Research 

Climate change raises risk of bacterial disease for U.S. East Coast beachgoers
Even in a future of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, beachgoers along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard will face up to 100 times more risk of infection from marine bacteria known as Vibrio in 2100 than in 2020. Knowing the bacteria proliferate faster in warmer waters, researchers simulated risk of infection by two Vibrio species (V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus) over the next 75 years, comparing warming scenarios from moderate and high emissions. Under the high-emissions scenario, risk multiplied up to 1,000 times from 2020 levels. The team projected greater danger along northern coastlines and noted that actual hazards may exceed their estimates, which accounted for Vibrio exposure from accidentally swallowing seawater but not infection through wounds. [GeoHealth study] 

India’s entire coastline is sinking, putting millions at risk
In the first assessment of land subsidence across India’s entire coast, based on satellite data from 2016 to 2024, researchers have documented ubiquitous land sinking, far more widespread than previously thought. Hotspots include several high-population cities, with Chennai and Kolkata among them. The five major deltas of India’s east coast, heavily farmed regions, are sinking up to 20 millimeters per year, while over 8.5 million people live in areas sinking more than 5 millimeters per year. Land subsidence augments the risks of sea level rise for the more than 200 million Indians living within 100 kilometers of the coast, many in low-lying, flood-prone regions. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Socially vulnerable Americans face worsening, disproportionate extreme heat risk
Residents of the contiguous U.S. in socially vulnerable communities, on average, weathered extreme heat nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than their low-vulnerability counterparts between 1994 and 2023. That’s up from a 2.3-degree disparity over the period from 1951 to 1980, a recent study finds — and the gap will continue to widen as human-driven global warming continues. Using climate observations and future climate projections at fine spatial scales, researchers also found that at 2 degrees Celsius of warming, vulnerable communities will see up to 18 more days per year over 95 degrees F than non-vulnerable ones, with some areas getting more than 180 days per year over that threshold. Above 95 degrees F, using fans to cool off can worsen heat stress by blowing hot air over the body. [Earth’s Future study]

Global warming and rising seas stymie salt marshes’ carbon sequestration
The combination of human-driven global warming and saltwater intrusion from sea level rise may hinder salt marshes’ ability to sequester carbon and mitigate climate change. Researchers monitored soils from salt marshes in China’s Yangtze River estuary both in the field and under controlled levels of temperature and salinity. Temperatures over 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) boosted the soils’ emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, both greenhouse gases — and saltier conditions amplified the effect. This suggests that salt marshes may become less effective carbon sinks as temperatures climb and sea levels rise, the team said. [Earth’s Future study]

Children’s asthma-related hospital visits rise when wildfire smoke fills the air
Asthma-related hospital visits among children rise when wildfire smoke pollutes the air, a recent study finds. Looking at data from 2017 to 2020 from a children’s hospital serving two counties in Northern California, researchers found that an additional 10 micrograms per cubic meter of smoke particulates correlated with a 4% higher risk of hospital visits the same day and a 13% higher cumulative risk over the ensuing five days. The effect amplified in communities already facing environmental and socioeconomic stress. As wildfire smoke events to continue worsening in the Western U.S. under human-driven climate change, the team wrote, public health efforts must prioritize children in vulnerable communities during wildfires. [GeoHealth study] 

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