12/11/2025: Reindeer, algal blooms, undersea mountains and more hit stories coming to AGU25

Written by

AGU News 

Register for AGU’s 2025 annual meeting for on-site and remote access to 20K research presentations in the Earth and space sciences 

Join us in New Orleans or online next week at the 2025 AGU Annual Meeting, 15-19 December at the Morial Convention Center. 

Recordings of the scientific program will be available to online participants on-demand within 72 hours of the sessions’ end and remain accessible to registered attendees until 14 April 2026. Press briefings will be live-streamed. 

Staff, freelance, and student journalists are eligible to apply for complimentary press registration through the end of the conference. Press officers and institutional writers covering the meeting are also eligible. 

[press registration] [press events] [scientific program] [virtual attendance] 

Featured Research 

Rivers have heatwaves, too– and they’re outpacing air heatwaves
Heatwaves may not hit rivers with nearly the intensity of air heatwaves, but they happen double to quadruple the frequency. These underwater heatwaves are driven by climate change through diminishing snowpack and changes in water flow. The new research found human activities like dams extended the heatwaves whereas agriculture reduced them. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Wednesday, 17 December] 

Air pollution is decreasing, but increasing natural hazards threaten to upset progress
Despite progress made in decreasing air pollution, hazards like wildfires, droughts, dust storms and even volcanic eruptions can decline air quality. Wildfires, droughts and extreme heat, among other things, are all expected to increase with climate change worsening, and those compounding effects can worsen air pollution in an unknown way. Using 10 years of data, researchers are creating a real-time automated process to see daily air pollution impacts that include multiple hazards at once, something often left out of air pollution prediction models. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Thursday, 18 December ] 

Even small companies can save lives by cutting emissions
Companies that have pledged to decrease and minimize their emissions could save potential lives by following through on those promises, even the companies with small environmental impacts. New research found over four million deaths could be saved depending on different emission scenarios of 3,000 companies: no decrease in emissions, some decrease, and hitting their pledged amounts within a shorter timeframe and the pledged timeframe of 2100. According to this study, some companies could impact thousands of lives, while others have a much smaller impact but could still mitigate potential losses. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Monday, 15 December] 

Warm ocean water is melting the Thwaites ice shelf from below
Along with steady warming of deep ocean water melting the Thwaits Eastern Ice Shelf from below, short bursts of heatwaves that alter sea ice are having a large impact. These bursts alter water density and disrupt ocean stratification, or the natural layering of water by heat and salinity. This disruption increases the melting speed of the ice shelf. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Tuesday, 16 December] 

Crusty snow delivered by climate change blocks reindeer from food in winter
As climate change plays out in snowy regions, warmer winter air can increase the likelihood of rain falling on existing snow. The snow then melts and refreezes, creating layers of ice that prevent foraging animals from nibbling the plants below. In northern Europe’s Fennoscandia peninsula, conditions for this phenomenon have been occurring more often and, in interior regions, earlier in the year since 1960. For winters when those shifts are especially prominent, researchers found, reindeer birthrates tend to drop the following summer. Areas with densely populated herds appear to take the hardest hit, likely because more reindeer must compete for limited food in their iced-over foraging grounds, the researchers note. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Thursday, 18 December] 

Chilean undersea mountains show how island nations can legally claim seafloors
When coastal nations want to claim seafloor resources farther than 200 nautical miles offshore, international law requires them to prove that seafloor is a true geological extension of their land. But for island nations on the summits of undersea volcanoes, this gets tricky: those volcanoes’ sides slope gradually to the seafloor, muddling where the island’s territory starts or ends. To solve this, researchers used depth maps to trace volcanic slopes and seismic and gravity data to tease out the signature of the thick, rocky crust below. Where the two cross, they argue, lies the true edge of an island. Testing the method on two Chilean islands revealed an undersea mountain range over 700 kilometers long and up to 90 kilometers wide — proof, the researchers say, that this method could help dozens of coastal and island nations claim sovereign undersea territory. What’s more, the method leans mostly on public data, making it accessible and transparent. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Monday, 15 December] 

Long drought may not cripple Amazonian forests completely — but it will remake them
Scientists expect worsening droughts to kill a lot of plant life in the Amazon. To get a clearer picture of what sustained, long-term droughts might do, researchers have subjected an Amazonian forest plot to simulated drought for over 20 years. As expected, trees — especially the largest ones — died at a higher rate over the first 15 years. However, the die-off reduced competition for water, leaving the survivors with more to drink: their sap flow and internal water content matched that found in drought-free forest. As deaths slowed down, the ecosystem stabilized in the final seven years, albeit in a much-altered form — one with less plant mass and, consequently, less carbon stored in wood. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Wednesday, 17 December] 

How California’s worsening wildfires might contribute to toxic algal blooms, too
Toxic cyanobacteria have been causing harmful algal blooms to develop more often and last longer in at least 71 lakes across California since 2002, with high-risk blooms occurring earlier in the year, researchers in the state have found. The team hypothesizes that wildfires, also on the rise in California, may play a role — specifically, by leaving burned landscapes more prone to sediment erosion into lakes, providing cyanobacteria with more nutrients to fuel the blooms. If so, fire monitoring could be a valuable tool for forecasting the risk of harmful algal blooms. [Conference abstract – Presentation on Friday, 19 December] 

Indonesia’s energy plans threaten its climate goals while barely reducing fuel imports
In its quest for energy self-sufficiency, Indonesia in 2023 produced Presidential Regulation Number 40, designed to boost annual bioethanol production. Put into effect in 2024, the regulation seeks to achieve this by converting at least 700,000 hectares, but potentially up to two million hectares, of land into sugarcane plantation. The caveat: this would occur in the country’s easternmost region, home to some of Earth’s densest remaining tropical rainforest. Using remote sensing and mapping tools, researchers assessed deforestation from the project’s first year, as well as its likely future impact on land use, oil demand, and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The project would dramatically alter local landscapes and livelihoods, they found, as well as jeopardize Indonesia’s goal of becoming a net carbon sink by 2030 — but would barely make a dent in fuel imports. [Conference abstract – Monday, 15 December] 

12/04/2025: Water demand consistently overestimated in California

Written by

San Luis Dam in California, U.S.
Credit: Bureau of Reclamation

Featured Research 

Californian water suppliers consistently overestimate water demand
A study of 61 water suppliers in California found that projections of water demand from 2000 to 2020 consistently overestimated actual demand — by 25% for five-year projections and by 74% for 20-year projections, on average. Water demand per capita, which suppliers typically assumed to be stable or growing, dropped nearly 2% per year over the study period. Researchers attribute this to an increase in rebate programs and mandatory regulations for limiting outdoor water use. As climate change makes water conservation more uncertain, they write, water suppliers should improve forecasting methods to avoid needless infrastructure costs and support sustainable water management. [Water Resources Research study] 

Record heat coming to these three world regions
Experts expect climate change to bring more extreme humid heat to many parts of the world, enough to approach the limits of human tolerance in some places — yet regional-level humid heat events have received little attention from scientists and the media. Looking at record humid-heat days from 216 regions around the world, researchers used climate models to assess the odds of those records getting broken under today’s climate conditions. They identified the eastern United States, eastern China, and much of Australia as particularly likely to see humid heat more extreme than in recent decades, highlighting these regions as potentially underprepared. [AGU Advances study] 

Using 400 years of Chinese historical records to project epidemics
Comparing weather records from the Ming and Qing dynasties in China, researchers examined the role extreme weather like floods and droughts played in epidemics. They found the impact was regional with the largest correlation between drought specifically and large-scale epidemics gradually decreases from northern China down to southern China. Additionally, epidemics historically had at least 32 years between outbreaks. [GeoHealth study] 

Climate change makes combined cyclone-heatwaves worse for coastal China
As climate change progresses, tropical cyclones and heatwaves increasingly occur back-to-back, exacerbating the damage either event would have on its own. Climate model simulations indicate that in a future with continued high emissions of greenhouse gases, China’s densely populated southeastern coast will likely experience stronger, broader, more frequent, and longer-lasting tropical cyclone-heatwaves, with temperatures 2°C warmer than 1980-2010 summer conditions. Researchers call for improved early warning systems and urban heat mitigation efforts to protect vulnerable populations in the region. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Climate variations in tropical oceans drive primarily extreme events
Severe droughts and floods are primarily driven by climate variations in tropical oceans, with interannual and decadal patterns playing key roles. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

Heatwaves increase home births in India
Heatwaves in India are associated with increased home births, with differential susceptibilities across regions and populations, threatening maternal and newborn health. [Eos editors’ highlight][GeoHealth study] 

 

11/26/2025: That water on Mars might not actually be liquid

Written by

A photograph of a volcano shaped like an ant hill with rising walls, a basin filled with bubbling orange and red lava, and a valley formed in the middle of the photo where the lava is spilling from the volcano. Smoke rises from the lava and partially blocks a tan dirt hill in the background.

The Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption in Iceland
Credit: Creative Commons/Yuo7si

AGU News 

AGU honors journalists Brooke Jarvis, Roland Pease and Jonathan Blackwell for excellence in science journalism
AGU recognizes Brooke Jarvis 2025 Walter Sullivan Award for Excellence in Science Writing – Features for “Our Very Strange Search for ‘Sea Level’” published in The New Yorker magazine on 19 August 2024. Roland Pease and Jonathan Blackwell share the 2025 David Perlman Award for Excellence in Science Writing – News for the radio story “An armada for asteroid Apophis?”, which aired on 26 April 2024 on the BBC World Service weekly radio program Science in Action. [announcement] [all 2025 AGU honors] 

Register for AGU25 in New Orleans 
Join 20,000 Earth and space scientists at AGU’s annual meeting in New Orleans, 15-19 December. Session recordings will be available to online attendees on demand. Registration is free for qualified journalists and media relations professionals. [press registration] 

Featured Research 

Bubble trouble: how bubbles move in magma
To have lava and a volcanic eruption, you must have bubbles! Like soda in a bottle, pressure (and bubbles) starts to build up in volcanoes before eruptions. A new study looks to answer how many bubbles form, where they start and how the bubbles move as an eruption occurs. The bubble model can help scientists better understand magma and volcanic eruptions. [JGR Solid Earth study] 

These spots in the Atlantic Ocean could ring alarm bells for the collapse of the AMOC
As the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slows, researchers are looking for key measurement points and locations that could provide early warning signs for the end of the current. A new model projected certain indicators, like salinity, around southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean will be the strongest early signals. The AMOC is currently being observed in three places, and the new study suggests data from SAMBA are most useful for predicting estimates for AMOC tipping times. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Maybe that’s not liquid water on Mars after all
A “very large roll” of a radar instrument offers new insight into a highly reflective area near the Martian south pole. Along the southern tip of Mars sits a polar ice cap, and recent radar scans found strong reflections that could hint at water underneath the ice. However, for liquid to exist under the ice a very salty brine or volcanic vents would be needed to keep the water warm. [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Key driver of extreme winds on Venus identified
A new study suggests that a once-daily atmospheric tidal cycle may be a bigger driver of rapid Venusian winds than previously thought. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

From mantle flow to river flow: shaping Earth’s surface from within
The convection of the Earth’s mantle shapes its surface, carving fault networks into the lithosphere that can guide the course of rivers. [Eos editors’ highlight][Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Rethinking engagement with frontline communities
A new perspective from community-based organizations explains how scientists, funders, and other supporters can collaborate ethically and effectively while respecting community identities and priorities. [Eos editors’ highlight][Community Science study] 

Avoiding and responding to peak groundwater
A new review shows how rising demand, shrinking supplies, and policy decisions together shape when groundwater use peaks and what can be done to avoid long-term depletion. [Eos editors’ highlight][Earth’s Future study] 

 

11/20/2025: Increasingly salty soil could damage crops

Written by

A photograph from the beachside of a lake. Half of the photo is of the open, clear blue sky and the bottom half is taken up by the blue lake. The left side of the picture has a large green tree covering over the lake.

The water reservoir at Lake Mendocino in California, United States, served as a case study for how water reservoir operators followed the rules, to the letter or by using previous experience to lead their decisions.
Credit: Alexey Komarov

Featured Research 

Adjusting for human bias when building water reservoirs
Preconceived ideas and previous experiences can change how water reservoir operators adapt to changes. A new study examined if operators were more likely to follow the rules to the letter or let past experiences help dictate their actions, whether consciously or subconsciously. They found that it was most likely that operators would let past events influence operations, which could lead to issues. In a case study from California, researchers found that years of drought led the operators to adjust to their usual water levels and left the reservoir at risk of flooding as a result. By knowing how operators may react to weather events, policies can be implemented to allow for these adjustments while planning to mitigate the potential unintended consequences. [Water Resources Research study] 

Storm systems can create clouds over a hemisphere away
Cirrus clouds are those light, wispy clouds made entirely of ice crystals. There are two types of cirrus clouds, anvil and situ, and it can be difficult for modeling to tell them apart. A new study separated the two clouds by investigating what caused the clouds to form. Anvil cirrus clouds form from storm systems in their own hemisphere. In contrast, powerful storm systems in one hemisphere can generate huge waves in the atmosphere that cause situ cirrus clouds to form in calm skies across the equator in the other hemisphere. This distinction can help future models better predict how global warming impacting storms patterns will affect weather even hemispheres away. [AGU Advances study] [Eos editors’ highlight] 

How algae helped some life outlast extinction
Cooler waters near Norway’s north provided a refuge for phytoplankton during the Great Dying around 252 million years ago when 81% of marine life died out. A new study found fossilized biomarkers that leave hints that something, most likely a type of phytoplankton, was alive in the cold waters around Svalbard after the Great Dying. These organisms likely fled volatile waters elsewhere as their biomarkers were largely absent before the extinction. [AGU Advances study][Eos research spotlight] 

Excessive ocean alkalinity enhancement could warp some phytoplanktons’ shells
Adding alkaline materials like limestone or basalt to the oceans could chemically increase their capacity to absorb planet-warming carbon dioxide from the atmosphere — yet how this strategy will impact marine life remains uncertain. Researchers in a lab tested how this process impacted coccolithophores, tiny shell-building plankton that absorb carbon and provide nutrients for other marine life. As the rate of carbon entering the water rose with alkalinity, they found the coccolithophores used the extra carbon to photosynthesize and grow faster. However, the faster they grew, the less time and carbon they had to properly build their shells, resulting in malformed shells. This may imply an upper limit on how much alkalinity enhancement is safe for marine ecosystems, the researchers write. [JGR Biogeosciences study] 

Croplands may face threat of saltier soils as climate change amplifies droughts
Besides reducing water available for crops, drought can also make soil saltier, as evaporating water leaves behind its salt content in the upper layers of soil where farmers grow their crops. Nearly 15% of the world’s soils have gotten significantly saltier from 1980 to 2018, researchers have found. The trend is closely linked to more severe soil droughts: droughts lasting over six months play a major role turning un-salty soils salty, as occurred in nearly 7% of the world’s dry regions in the past 39 years. Salinization lowers soil fertility, which hampers crop growth, and degrades soil structure, making soil restoration more difficult. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

A new way for coastal planners to explore the costs of rising seas
A framework featuring a range of plausible future sea level rise scenarios could help coastal planners prepare critical infrastructure. [Earth’s Future study][Eos research spotlight] 

The invisible brake: near‑surface cooling stalls giant dyke swarms
Sill-based pressure reconstructions show Mull’s giant dykes had eruption-capable pressures, but near‑surface groundwater cooling increased magma viscosity and stalled lateral propagation. [JGR Solid Earth study][Eos editors’ highlight] 

Taking carbon science out of orbit
NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 satellite reveals an impressively dynamic picture of Earth’s carbon cycle, yet it may be prematurely decommissioned and destroyed due to budget cuts. [AGU Advances commentary][Eos editors’ highlight] 

11/13/2025: Lunar lava tube sanctuary detection by gravity sensors

Written by

Ape Cave at Mount St. Helens in Washington State. Credit: Jeff Hollett, public domain

AGU News

Don’t just reopen government. Recommit to science
AGU President Brandon Jones exhorts lawmakers in Congress to complete full-year appropriations for federal science agencies and ensure those funds are protected and used as intended. [From the Prow]

Featured Research

More frequent extreme flooding forecasted for US East Coast
Tropical cyclones have long battered the east and gulf coasts of the United States, but extreme coastal flooding from these storms is on track to shift from rare to common. Due to sea level rise and changes in the climate systems governing cyclones, flooding levels that historically struck only once every 100 years could become annual by the end of the century under moderate or high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Meanwhile, extreme floods that once happened every 500 years could occur at least every 60 years with moderate emissions and at least every 20 years with high emissions. The flooding characteristic of Hurricane Sandy could inundate New York City three to seven times more often—every 130 to 270 years, rather than every 960 years. [Earth’s Future study]

Underground moon tunnels could shelter lunar explorers – here’s how to find them
Future lunar explorers may one day take shelter from radiation, extreme temperatures, and micrometeorites in lava tubes — underground tunnels where lava once flowed, found on the moon and Earth alike. Now, researchers have hit upon a possible way to find those tubes. The team created a high-resolution, 3-D model of Ape Cave, a lava tube in Washington State, USA, and simulated how it affected gravity measurements. Similar measurements taken near the cave in real life matched their predictions. This implies, the team said, that gravity sensors could reliably detect lava tubes down to 26 meters deep on the moon as well, based on how the tubes affected gravitational measurements. [JGR Planets study]

Marine heatwaves reshape precipitation patterns
Most marine heatwaves experience reduced precipitation throughout their lifetime, but warmer events in the early stage can trigger increased precipitation after reaching peak intensity, causing faster decay. [Eos editors’ highlights][JGR Atmospheres study]

 

11/06/2025: Extreme floods could place HIV clinic care at risk

Written by

photograph: a red-brown river snakes through terraced green hills.

The Red River flows through Yunnan on its way to the South China Sea. Red sediments give the river its distinctive color. In the past 1,500 years, humans have increased erosion in the river basin as well as the capacity of the landscape to absorb carbon dioxide through silicate weathering. Credit: 瑞丽江的河水/ Wikimedia CC BY-SA 4.0

AGU News

AGU25 annual meeting scientific program online
The online scientific program and schedule is now available for the December 2025 meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana. [schedule] [press registration]

Featured Research

Hundreds of HIV care centers are at risk of disruption of services from climate change
Extreme weather events like floods and droughts present unique challenges to HIV care clinics and for those living with HIV in those regions. Clinics face the risk of losing access to needed medication, electricity, and regular day-to-day activities when faced with these weather events. Those living with HIV are at an increased risk of exposure to additional illnesses that can accompany floods or droughts and the potential loss of income, housing and security. The new study found almost 690 clinics face a moderate to high risk of both floods and droughts. Mozambique and South Africa had the most clinic at high risk for these multi-hazard events, with Southern Africa also housing the highest number of measured clinics. [GeoHealth study]

1,500 years of farming, deforestation boosted soil carbon capture capacity in Southeast Asia
When carbon dioxide in the atmosphere falls to earth via rainwater, it reacts with silica in rocks to form compounds that eventually flow to the sea, locking the carbon away. Human activities like farming and mining can augment this process — known as silicate weathering — by exposing more rock surface area and increasing soil erosion, boosting the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed from the atmosphere. Using sediments in the South China Sea, researchers pieced together a 3,800-year history of weathering in the Red River Basin. They found that human activities have upped the region’s ability to sequester carbon through silicate weathering by 150% over the past 1,500 years. But erosive actions like agriculture and deforestation have driven up greenhouse gas emissions as well. [Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface study]

As CO2 concentrations rise, radio and navigation systems may falter
Layers of metallic ions — what scientists call “sporadic-E layers”— regularly form high in Earth’s atmosphere, where they sometimes disrupt high-frequency radio, navigation, and positioning systems. Researchers in Japan used an atmospheric model to simulate how increasing carbon dioxide concentrations might affect this phenomenon. Doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide from present levels, they found, changed atmospheric wind and chemistry in ways that promoted sporadic-E layers, making them stronger, longer-lasting, and lower-altitude. Changes like this could make radio and navigation systems less reliable in the future [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Beavers are not concerned about groundwater
But, scientists are! A new study illuminates the complex interactions of beaver dam induced ponding and floodplain inundation with shallow groundwater storage and flow patterns. [Eos editors’ highlights][Water Resources Research study]

Webb Telescope spies Io’s volcanic activity and sulfurous atmosphere
New James Webb Space Telescope images reveal cooling lava, volcanic sulfur monoxide gas, and sulfur gas emissions created by interactions between plasma and the moon’s atmosphere. [Eos research spotlight][JGR Planets study]

Voicing farmers’ concerns on the future of agriculture
A new study explores the deep, multi-faceted concerns of small- and mid-scale farmers about the direction of farming and food systems in the United States. [Eos editors’ highlights][Community Science study]

Serendipity in space: NASA’s eye in the sky
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission, proposed for early termination, has turned out to be a boon to forest and agricultural management. [Eos editors’ highlights][AGU Advances commentary]

 

10/30/2025: Slow shifts in Earth’s orbit may have triggered the Cambrian Explosion

Written by

photograph of a trilobite fossil, captured obliquely. Light and shadow outline the imprint of the hard body parts and soft antennae

Trilobites, like this fossilized Olenoides serratus from the Burgess Shale, may be the most famously recognizable of the animal classes that arose and exploded into a great diversity of body forms during the Cambrian period. Credit: Smith609 at English Wikipedia, CC BY 2.5

AGU News

AGU25 annual meeting scientific program online
The online scientific program and schedule is now available for the December 2025 meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana. [schedule] [press registration]

Judge stops shutdown-related RIFs indefinitely
On Wednesday in AGU’s case to fight the Administration’s illegal mass firings, our federal judge issued an order blocking the mass firings and reorganizations of government agencies until our case is resolved. [Read more in Eos]

Featured Research

Changes in Earth’s orbit may have kick-started the Cambrian Explosion
Experts think surges in oxygen in the ocean and atmosphere may have fueled the quick diversification of animal life called the Cambrian Explosion more than 500 million years ago. But the cause of the oxygen surges is not known. Using model simulations, researchers showed that slow periodic changes in Earth’s orbit shifted the distribution of incoming energy from the sun on similar cycles of several million years as the oxygen fluctuations. Climate change caused by these long-period orbital cycles, the researchers argued, could have impacted the weathering of Earth’s land surfaces, releasing pulses of nutrients which flowed into the oceans, prompting bursts of photosynthesis that released oxygen as a byproduct. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Regrowing forests may not help fight climate change as much as we thought
A new meta-analysis examined the impact of replanting trees on the output of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, but also less studied nitrous oxide and methane. They found that overall, replanting forests can be beneficial, helping to absorb carbon dioxide. However, maintaining healthy old growth forests and mitigating fossil fuel use went much further in combating climate change. [Global Biogeochemical Cycles study][Columbia Climate School press release]

Cities’ unused spaces could close nutritional gaps for citizens
Researchers used São Paulo as a case study to see how increasing access to urban gardens could change food scarcity in city settings. Areas chosen for these potential farms were evaluated for potential pollutants in the air, soil, and water, and only certain crops were considered to maximize output and viability. The study found almost 400 suitable areas for farms and if these areas were utilized fully with specifically chosen crops, they could help fill nutritional gaps for over one million people in São Paulo. [Earth’s Future study]

How plant-fungi friendships are changing
A new framework shows how much carbon plants allocate to their endosymbionts and how that amount might change in the face of warming soil and rising carbon dioxide levels. [Eos research spotlight][JGR Biogeosciences study]

New earthquake model goes against the grain
Subducting plates are stronger in certain directions than others, which may be a factor in how earthquakes occur and how seismic waves propagate. [Eos research highlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

10/23/2025: Glass beads capture secrets from far side of the Moon

Written by

A down facing photograph of 100 Moon beads in various sizes, colors, and shapes. They resemble pearls in shades of gray, white, and silver with tear drop, circular, and oblong shapes.

Glass beads scooped up on the far side of the Moon during the Chang’e-6 mission.
Credit: Yan, Xiao, et al. JGR Planets https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JE008945

AGU News 

Register for Ocean Sciences Meeting in Glasgow, 22-27 February 2026
Staff, freelance and student journalists, press officers and institutional writers are eligible to apply for complimentary press registration. Book conference hotels early! [media advisory][OSM26 Press][eligibility guidelines] 

AGU joins COP30 Ocean Pavilion
AGU is teaming up with leading ocean science and stakeholder organizations to host the Ocean Pavilion at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, bringing ocean science insights, ethics, and community-driven solutions to the heart of global climate policy. Media are invited to cover key announcements, expert panels, and the launch of the Belém Ocean Declaration. [press release] 

Featured Research 

Asthma stemming from vehicle pollution disproportionately impacts children of color in California
California kids attending public schools in vulnerable areas — with higher populations of students of color, lower educational attainment and poverty — are exposed to more fine particulate pollution (PM2.5), mostly due to traffic. These schools were statistically closer to highways, where vehicle pollution was the highest. The study attributed 562 new cases of asthma per 100,000 schoolchildren to PM2.5 exposure in 2016. That’s equivalent to 34,537 new asthma cases in California. But socially vulnerable children were at higher risk and the racial disparity was the strongest, with 209 additional cases per 100,000. The highest rates of asthma attributable to fine particulate pollution was in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley areas of California. [GeoHealth study] 

On the far side of the Moon, meteors left glass beads scattered across the ground
Colorful glass beads likely formed during meteor strikes were found on the far side of the Moon. The pearl-like beads give scientists insight into the speed and age of the impacts and the minerals of meteors. The miniature melted rock baubles are part of the returns from mission Chang’e-6 to collect loose gravel, sand, and any other sediment that collected on the ground of the more mysterious side of the Moon for the first time ever. The beads were older than those previously collected on the near side of the Moon and contained more exotic material that was adhered to the surface of the beads. [JGR Planets study] 

Health of Pakistan lakes dips and rises mainly following temperature and rain
Three lakes in the Islamabad region in Pakistan that provide drinking water for nearby cities have been altered by urbanization and climate change. A new study tracked the last 30 years of various health markers for the different lakes, including plant coloring and moisture levels. They found the lakes were highly dependent on the climate, shifting wildly depending on the temperature and the rainfall of the year. Understanding how the climate impacts these lakes can help for future planning as climate change leads to temperature increases and rain patterns alter from historical norms. [GeoHealth study] 

Chicago soil maps childhood lead exposure risk
Researchers combined soil measurements and public health data to identify areas where children may be exposed to unsafe levels of lead in the dirt. They found that around 27% of children city-wide were at risk for elevated levels of lead in their blood. Percentages rose in at risk communities to as high as 57%. [Eos Research spotlight][GeoHealth study] 

Tectonics and climate are shaping an Alaskan ecosystem
Biogeochemical research reveals the web of forces acting on a high-latitude microbe community in the Copper River Delta. [Eos Research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

10/16/2025: The ocean could burp up all its heat

Written by

A photograph of an oyster shell that has been cut apart to show the rings and formations inside the shell indicating its growth pattern set to a black background.

Fossilized oyster shells collected in western India.
Credit: Mitra, de Winter, et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology https://doi.org/10.1029/2025PA005129

AGU News 

2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting will convene in Glasgow, Scotland, 22-27 February
Staff, freelance and student journalists, press officers and institutional writers are eligible to apply for complimentary press registration. Book conference hotels early! [media advisory][OSM26 Press][press eligibility guidelines] 

Featured Research 

Ocean will burp out accumulated heat in an ideal cooling world
The ocean absorbs both heat and carbon dioxide, buffering the effects of global warming. If, in the best of all possible worlds, future humans consistently remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than they add, how would ocean buffering behave in reverse? A new study predicts that after several hundred years of cooling, the atmosphere would warm again for about a century at a rate comparable to our present warming as the deep Southern Ocean disgorged its store of heat. But, thanks to complicated sea water chemistry, these heat burps would not include much carbon dioxide. [AGU Advances study] 

Ancient oysters hint at a hotter past India
Fossil shells tell a story of conditions in the deep past. 40 million years ago, oyster shells recorded the temperatures and conditions that they grew in. Fossils found in India held a history of a much hotter landscape. Millions of years ago, the oysters recorded warmer months that averaged 34 degrees Celsius (93 degrees Fahrenheit) with only a few degrees difference in temperature throughout the different seasons. Compare that with modern day India which averages around 25 degrees (77 degrees), dipping into the single digits during winter. [Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology study] 

Plants’ use of CO2 complicates estimates of global drying amid climate change
As human actions elevate the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, growth of plants—which use the gas to photosynthesize—is also intensifying in what some experts have dubbed “global greening.” This, in addition to the warming effect of CO2 in the atmosphere, can dry out soils: plants draw water from the land and lose some of it to the air upon opening their pores to absorb CO2. At the same time, with more CO2 in the air, they don’t need to keep their pores open for as long. This means less water is lost than previously expected according to a new study. Researchers in China modeled how different conditions affected land drying from 1982 to 2014 and found that atmospheric CO2 offset about 69% of the global water loss that would have otherwise occurred from warming and greening–significantly more than traditional drought and aridity indices account for. The authors say the findings could help inform management of water resources as climate change continues. [Water Resources Research study] 

A step toward AI modeling of the whole Earth system
Coupling an AI-driven model of the atmosphere with a model of the ocean could help scientists create highly efficient emulations of the entire Earth system. [Eos research spotlight][JGR Machine Learning and Computation study] 

Magnetic “switchback” detected near Earth for first time
Until recently, this type of zigzag shape—formed by energetic rearrangement of magnetic field lines—had been seen only near the Sun. [Eos research spotlight][JGR Space Physics study] 

10/09/2025: Changes in rain could slow autumn colors

Written by

A wide photograph shot of the topside of a forest bursting with autumn colors in greens, yellows, oranges, and reds..

Autumn foliage Talcott Mountain State Park, Connecticut.
Credit: Ragesoss/WikiCommons

AGU News 

2026 Ocean Sciences Meeting will convene in Glasgow, Scotland, 22-27 February
Staff, freelance and student journalists, press officers and institutional writers are eligible to apply for complimentary press registration. Book conference hotels early! [media advisory][OSM26 Press][press eligibility guidelines] 

Featured Research 

Autumn colors could be delayed as climate change impacts rainfall
In the last 40 years, more rain falling in less frequent (but more extreme) storms/bursts has caused autumn leaves to change color and fall later in the season in the northern hemisphere’s upper latitudes. Warming temperatures during fall have previously been shown to delay autumn colors and leaf fall by up to two weeks, and changes in rainfall could compound those impacts. The delay may impact the season’s beauty, but it can also affect the fertilization of the soil, protection for plants and animals and could impact the tree’s regrowth the next year. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Meteotsunamis pose an unknown risk as sea levels rise and weather patterns change
Meteorological tsunamis, or meteotsunamis are tsunami-like ocean waves that have long been known around the world under various names by communities that have faced these threats for centuries. When amplified by shallow waters along coasts, they can cause severe flooding, damage and death. A new review discussed available research on these mysterious tsunamis including the current alert systems in place, theories on how the storms form, and looked for gaps in information for potential future investigations. Currently, modeling meteotsunamis is difficult, and it leaves scientists unable to fully predict changes or possible events, like how climate change may impact them. Additionally, the researchers wrote about wanting to see more long-term, early warning systems for high-risk communities. [Reviews of Geophysics study] 

Global water models systematically underestimate drought
To predict drought, scientists often rely on computer simulations of how water systems on land react to different climatic and environmental conditions. But in a new study examining how well these global water models simulated historical droughts, researchers found they frequently underestimated the actual amount of water in snowpack, rivers, lakes, canopies, aquifers, and other land-based water sources as measured by satellites. One reason, the researchers wrote, is that many models don’t sufficiently factor in the impact of human actions like irrigation and groundwater extraction. Fixing this could improve models’ ability to accurately predict future droughts as well as historical ones, helping us manage water resources more effectively as droughts in many parts of the world grow more frequent and severe with climate change. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Converging eddies create forever chemical hotspot, putting sea life at risk
More than any other force, ocean currents determine how PFAS — long-lasting, human-made compounds nicknamed “forever chemicals” — move around the globe. In a new study, researchers took water samples from two ocean eddies swirling in opposite directions in the western North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. At the boundary between them, the team found a PFAS hotspot with concentrations two to seven times higher than in surrounding waters at the same depth. This could put marine life at risk: convergences between eddies can also concentrate plankton, in which PFAS can accumulate, and nutrients, which attract marine life. [ JGR Oceans study] 

Satellite scans can estimate urban emissions
As more cities strive to meet climate goals, space-based observations may help fill in the gaps on tracking emissions. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]