3/5/2025: Two degrees of warming would double Greenland’s rain

A wildfire burns in South Carolina in 2016. Credit: US National Guard

AGU News

AGU joins suit supporting fired federal scientists
AGU has joined as a plaintiff in a lawsuit before the United States District Court, Northern District of California, arguing that the firings of probationary employees in agencies across the federal government directed by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management were illegal. It argues downstream impacts of reduced federal scientific expertise and funding on research have harmed the economy, public health, environment, and national security. [read the full statement]

The state of science: “Ushering in a dark age of retreat”
AGU responds to President Trump’s speech Tuesday night. “At the moment, the state of our science is not strong, but the resolve of our community in Earth and space sciences to restore and renew it is.” [read the full statement]

Experts available to comment on importance of US climate science
AGU last week issued a statement stressing the importance of climate science for ensuring a secure, prosperous future for the country and for the world. Federal firings and funding cuts threaten the next generation of scientists and risk undoing critical progress made in climate research and mitigation. Email [email protected] for help finding expert sources willing to speak with the media about climate science. [read the full statement]

Featured Research

Research roundup: The changing wildfire climate in the southeast US
Hundreds of wildfires are burning in the Carolinas and Georgia. These studies may be useful for reporters covering the fires. [growth of woody veg drives SE US wildfires][wildfires are on the rise in the eastern US][how smoke impacted vulnerable populations in N.C.’s 2016 fires]

Two degrees of warming would double Greenland’s rain
If temperatures in Greenland rise to 2.3°C above the historical average, the amount of precipitation falling as rain there would double, while 10°C of warming would cause half the island’s precipitation to fall as rain, a new study finds. Rain accelerates the ice sheet’s mass loss, while snow can help decelerate loss. [Geophysical Research Letters study][see also: atmospheric rivers can dump enough snow to replenish some of Greenland’s ice loss]

Even mild warming will bring 10 times more atmospheric rivers to western US
Atmospheric rivers can cause destructive flooding and frequently hit the western U.S. In mild warming, extreme atmospheric rivers will hit the West Coast nearly 10 times more frequently by the end of the century, a new modeling study reports. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

The thirstiest crops in the US
Corn and alfalfa agriculture account for about two-fifths of the country’s annual “blue” crop water consumption, a new study finds. About 10% of irrigated croplands in the U.S. account for more than 90% of the volume of irrigation water. Corn and soybeans are prominent in the East, while alfalfa and hay dominate the West. [Water Resources Research study]

Oceans are warming, but evaporating less
Recent research documented a slowdown in the accumulation of water vapor in Earth’s atmosphere in recent decades. Despite rising sea surface temperatures, marine evaporation (a key source of water vapor) has decreased, primarily because of “wind stilling,” a new study finds. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

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2/26/2025: Only low-emissions pathways will keep Antarctica cold

Credit: NASA GSFC

AGU News

Nominate work for AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards
The deadline for our News and Features awards is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

Featured Research

Only low-emissions pathways will keep Antarctica cold
Only the lowest-emissions scenario could keep Antarctica under the critical 2 degrees Celsius warming mark by 2100, new models show. Warming will continue to increase melt in Antarctica, which will contribute to global sea level rise, highlighting the importance of climate policies to meet emissions goals. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Hudson Bay sea ice broke up a month early in spring 2024
Sea ice in Canada’s Hudson Bay in 2024 broke up 31 days earlier than the historical record, leading to record-low sea ice extent that was exceptionally lower than the historical average, a new study finds. Sea ice retreated six times faster than in the historical period, leading to record-high sea surface temperatures and exceptionally long marine heat waves. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Tracing the causes of Brazil’s disastrous 2024 floods
Severe flooding in southern Brazil (May 2024) claimed nearly 200 lives and displaced more than 600,000 people. The floodwaters were around 1.5 billion cubic meters, a new study finds. The flooding was caused by a heatwave that blocked a cold front, leading to record-breaking rainfall. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Ancient city of Alexandria is collapsing
Building collapses in the 3,000-year-old port city of Alexandria, today the most densely populated urban area in the southern Mediterranean, increased 10-fold in the last 20 years, a new study finds. Nearly 300 buildings have collapsed, and at least 7,000 more are at risk. Seawater intrusion and erosion drive the collapses there and threaten buildings similarly throughout the Mediterranean. [Earth’s Future study][USC press release]

A slowdown of seafloor spreading may have sunk sea levels
Between 15 million and 6 million years ago, a drop in ocean crust production may have lowered sea level by 26 to 32 meters. The slowdown could have led to climate cooling, which could further lower sea level. [Eos research spotlight][Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems study]

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2/19/2025: Ozone pollution tied to heart attack risk

Smog in Los Angeles. Credit: Ron Reiring/flickr

AGU News

Nominate work for AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards
The deadline for our News and Features awards is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

Featured Research

Ozone pollution tied to heart attack risk
Even short-term exposure to ozone pollution may lead to increased risk of heart attack in individuals 18-55, a new study finds. Black patients were more likely to be negatively impacted. [GeoHealth study]

How much water is the massive Mu Us Desert restoration using?
The Mu Us Desert in northwestern China was historically an arid steppe, but climate change and human activities caused desertification to spread in the mid-1900s. Ecological restoration efforts have been ongoing for decades, and some of those efforts might be using less water than previous estimates said, a new study found. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Biomass burning is blackening Himalayan glaciers
Black carbon warms the atmosphere and melts ice. In the Himalayas, fossil fuel combustion contributes most black carbon, but biomass burning has been adding more in recent decades, a new study finds. Years with droughts, particularly El Niño years, saw more black carbon from biomass burning. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Jupiter’s moon Callisto is likely an ocean world
The planet’s second-largest moon probably hosts a vast, salty ocean under its icy shell, according to a new study. The ocean could be tens of kilometers deep. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]

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2/12/2025: Consecutive El Niño events may increase infectious disease risk

AGU News

Nominate work for AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards
The deadline for our News and Features awards is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

Featured Research

Back-to-back El Niños may increase infectious disease outbreaks
Consecutive El Niño events, which can occur relatively often, may lead to a multi-year increase in risk for infectious diseases, a new study finds. El Nino’s impacts on human health persist for one or more years after the weather changes, the study also found. [GeoHealth study] 

Heavy rains leave Beijing air cleaner
Large rainstorms can “scavenge” pollutants from urban air, a new study of Beijing finds. Besides temporarily cleaning the air, that has a surprising effect: With fewer aerosols in the air, the clouds changed, and the city was more likely to receive gentle, warm rain than when the air was more polluted. [JGR Atmospheres study]

The next decade of space weather research
A summary report of the 2024 decadal survey for the solar and space physics community was released at the end of last year, with emphases on increased satellite launches, the development of private space exploration, space exploration, and vulnerabilities to space weather. In a brief editorial, the editor-in-chief of the journal Space Weather discusses key recommendations for the next decade of space weather research. [Space Weather commentary]

First Martian soil samples collected
The Perseverance rover has collected the first soil samples taken on the Red Planet, a new study reports. The samples, slated to return to Earth in the mid- to late 2030s, will give scientists crucial new information about how the planet’s climate and tectonics work and affected its surface. [JGR Planets study][UNLV press release]

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2/5/2025: A new way to take lightning’s temperature

AGU News

Nominate work for AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards
The deadline for our News and Features awards is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

Featured Research

A new way to take lightning’s temperature
Lightning contributes nitrogen oxide to the atmosphere and causes many wildfires, and knowing how hot strikes are improves our understanding of both of these impacts. But taking lightning’s temperature is very difficult. A new method of measuring strikes’ temperatures is easier, cheaper, and more effective than previous tools. [JGR Atmospheres study]

Mapping global trade’s contributions to air pollution
Global production and supply chains contribute particulate air pollution (PM2.5) to the atmosphere, but the pollution often stays where products are made with little, if any, impact on regions to which products are exported. A new study examines ties between health burdens, consumption, and income in a trade context. Western Europe’s contributions to trade-induced PM2.5 may be underestimated. [Earth’s Future study]

Europe’s 2022 heatwave and power shortage combo, explained
During the extreme heatwaves that struck southern Europe in May-July 2022, energy demand soared while the energy supply shrank. The same weather patterns that caused the heatwaves slowed wind speeds, creating a shortage of wind power, a new study reports. [JGR Atmospheres study] [AGU24 roundtable: “Extreme weather and the grid”]

El Nino and warm oceans led to record-hot 2023
In 2023, the world experienced its hottest global average surface temperature (until 2024, that is). The first half of the year saw gradual ocean warming as a result of El Nino patterns, followed by rapid warming over land masses later in the year, a new study finds. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

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1/29/2025: High-elevation sites get high-energy lightning strikes

Credit: Tim Trad/unsplash

AGU News

AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards are open!
Nominate news and feature stories about the Earth and space sciences, published in 2024, for our science journalism awards. The deadline is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

Featured Research

High-elevation sites get high-energy lightning strikes
Areas with higher elevations tend to receive more high-energy lightning strikes than sites at lower elevations, a new study finds. The Andes are one of the most likely spots for these high-energy strikes to hit. [Geophysical Research Letters study][see also: research on superbolts]

Dwarf planet Ceres got its organics from afar
Organic material found on the exoplanet Ceres is most likely from asteroids that hit its surface, rather than being from salty brines and cryovolcanism, a new study finds. The findings help scientists understand where and how habitable conditions arose in the solar system. [AGU Advances study][Max Planck press release]

An atmospheric pattern over the pacific influences western US wildfire risk
The West Pacific pattern correlates with high pressure, increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and higher burned area during autumn in the western United States. [Eos research spotlight][Earth’s Future study]

Thawing permafrost helped trigger ancient Icelandic landslides
Warming beginning about 13,000 years ago contributed to a proliferation of landslides in Iceland, a new study finds. As modern warming continues and permafrost thaws, landslide risk could increase. [JGR Earth Surface study][Eos research spotlight]

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1/22/2025: Soaring past goal temperatures could seriously impact water resources

Hoover Dam. Credit: Tyler Rutherford/unsplash

AGU News

AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards are open!
Nominate a news or feature story about the Earth and space sciences, published in 2024, for our science journalism awards. The deadline is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

AGU announces search firm for new executive director/chief executive officer
AGU has partnered with the executive search company Vetted Solutions to lead the Executive Director/CEO search, open to applications now. [press release]

Featured Research

Exceeding temperature goals will impact water resources
Warming temperatures threaten to destabilize the planet’s water cycles, but temperature overshoot — warming beyond goal temperatures and then cooling back down — poses unique risks to water resources, a new study reports. Overshoot could particularly impact glacial melt and groundwater, and policymakers will need to consider this, the authors say. [Water Resources Research study]

Forested parks are effective urban cool spots
Urban parks with high tree densities can cool the surface up to 4 degrees Celsius, according to a new study of temperatures in 2,000 urban parks around the world. Trees are more effective at cooling than other kinds of vegetation, and they make parks more drought-resilient, too. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Dataset: Water, carbon footprints of US electricity generation
A new study offers a dataset of hourly electricity use mix, water use, and carbon footprint for U.S. electricity users. [Water Resources Research study]

How could solar climate intervention strategies affect agriculture?
Geoengineering approaches such as stratospheric aerosol injection hold the promise of limiting warming, but among the many potential risks and concerns, their impacts on agriculture remain largely unexplored. [Earth’s Future study][Eos research spotlight]

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1/15/2025: Drought has degraded half of once-prime farmlands in Europe, and a Californian wildfire research roundup

Palisades Fire, January 2025. Credit: Cal Fire/flickr

AGU News

AGU’s 2025 Journalism Awards are open!
Nominate a news or feature story about the Earth and space sciences, published in 2024, for our science journalism awards. The deadline is 31 March 2025 at 11:59 p.m. Email us at [email protected] with questions about submissions and eligibility. [media advisory][information for News and Features awards][SUBMIT HERE]

Research roundup: California wildfires 

These studies may be useful to those reporting on the California wildfires. 

  • California’s burned area increased fivefold from 1972 to 2018; in fall, wind and delayed rains are often to blame (Earth’s Future, 2019) 
  • Wind-driven fires’ annual burned area increased 140% between 1992-2020 (Earth’s Future, 2023) 
  • What weather conditions lead to wildfire in California? (JGR Atmospheres, 2022) 
  • Particulate exposure from wildfire smoke decreases health in California (GeoHealth, 2022)

Featured Research

Once-prime farmlands in Europe degraded by drought
More than half of historically highly productive agricultural land in central Europe has lost its prime status because of increasing drought conditions, a new study finds. Three previous periods with similarly poor agricultural conditions were associated with major societal downturns — and climate projections suggest poor conditions are on track to worsen. [Geophysical Research Letters study][see also: What will European climate look like in the future?] 

Living soil crusts could help trap dust-borne pathogens
Biological soil crusts are communities of lichens, fungi, bacteria, and other microorganisms that coat the soil’s surface in arid environments. These delicate “biocrusts” reduce dust kicked up from soil, which could lower the volume of disease-causing fungi and bacteria in the air, a new study finds. Biocrust conservation and restoration could help improve human health in arid environments. [GeoHealth study] 

Seasonal swings in sea level are getting wilder
Along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, sea level varies seasonally, with a maximum in September and a minimum in January. The September maximum nearly doubled between 1980 and 2020, and the amplitude of sea level changes increased by 65% over that period, a new study finds. The changes could exacerbate flooding. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Pluto’s dearth of craters suggests recent geologic activity
Planetary bodies with fewer craters generally have younger surfaces. A new analysis of Pluto’s surface, observed in detail by New Horizons, reveals that large swaths of Pluto’s surface is devoid of craters. These surfaces may be very young, therefore implying that there has been recent geologic activity on Pluto. [JGR Planets study] 

1/8/2024: People, power lines ignite more wildfires in US West

Satellite image of wildfire burning in a forest and smoke plume.

Aging power utility lines ignited the Camp Fire near Paradise, California on 8 November 2018, captured by the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8. Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

 

People and power lines are starting more wildfires in tinder-dry West
Large wildfires have increased in the western U.S. in the last 50 years. Identification of the causes of ignition has not kept pace. More than 50% of wildfires now have unknown sources — a problem for prevention. A new study used machine learning to retroactively assign causes to 150,247 wildfires that ignited from 1992 to 2020, finding increasing trends for firearms, fireworks and power infrastructure. [Earth’s Future study]

Where the chickens are: High density farms cluster in socially vulnerable areas of North Carolina and Southeast US
Waste from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) accumulates in heaps and lagoons and is sprayed over nearby farmland, creating nasty health hazards for local people. Poultry farms are mostly unregulated in poultry powerhouse North Carolina, making environmental impacts difficult to assess. A new study maps these operations from space to identify who has to live with the chicken poo: primarily regions with low socioeconomic status. [GeoHealth study]

Vulcan-like exoplanets could be habitable
Some terrestrial planets with extreme internal heating, like Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io, can have solid surfaces and surface temperatures suitable for life. [Journal of Geophysical Research Planets study]

What lurks beneath the Antarctic ice
A new model of the plumbing underlying the full Antarctic Ice Sheet aims to improve predictions of global sea level rise. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Rivers meandering faster on the Tibetan Plateau
Warmer temperatures are releasing the sinuous rivers of the “third pole” from their existing channels, speeding the migration rates of permafrost rivers by 34.6% from 1987 to 2022 through the combined effects of higher water discharge, ground ice melt and an additional 35 thawing days each year. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Antarctic ice melt may fuel eruptions of hidden volcanoes
More than 100 volcanoes lurk beneath the surface in Antarctica. Ice sheet melt could set them off.[Eos research spotlight] [Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems study]

Will the volcanoes of Germany’s Eifel Mountains erupt again?
New processing strategies applied to old seismic data reveal potential pockets of magmatic fluids or melts from the upper mantle. [Eos research spotlight] [Geophysical Research Letters study]

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12/18/2024: Winter air turbulence on the rise over Europe

Climate change has increased air turbulence over Europe, particularly in the UK and northern Europe, a new GRL study finds. Hazardous clear-air turbulence contributed a significant portion of the increase. Credit: Randy Fath/unsplash

AGU News

AGU24 was a huge success! 

Thank you to everyone who joined the press corps at AGU24 in D.C. With nearly 400 journalists and press officers registered, the press rooms were bustling. The meeting had more than 30,000 attendees from 121 countries — making it the largest ever AGU Annual Meeting 

If you want to catch up, you can watch our press events on YouTube. 

We hope to see many of you next year in New Orleans for #AGU25! I 

Featured Research 

Climate change has increased air turbulence over Europe, especially in winter
Changes to atmospheric circulation have increased turbulence over Europe since 1979, a new study finds. Hazardous clear air turbulence increased the most. Turbulence grew the most over the UK and Northern Europe, with winter being the most turbulent season. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Forecasting Singapore Airlines’ bumpy ride in May would have been tricky
In May 2024, a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe turbulence; one passenger died, and dozens were injured. A European forecast predicted turbulence in that general region 24 hours in advance, but pinpointing where turbulence will strike in time and space remains difficult, a new study finds. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Lake Superior ice cover sees wild swings
Ice cover on Lake Superior varies more year to year than previously thought, a new study finds. Record-high ice years can be followed by nearly ice-free winters, and understanding why is crucial for predicting future changes to this important freshwater body. [Earth and Space Science study] 

Cities in Asian megadeltas face massive flooding risks
Megadeltas in Asia, such as the Mekong and Ganges deltas, are home to half the world’s delta-dwelling populations. But they face massive flooding risks thanks to sea level rise and rapid development. This new review offers in-depth looks at what drives flooding in these densely populated regions and what humans can do about it. [Reviews of Geophysics study] 

China’s pilot programs for greener industrial regions reduce emissions
China emits the most greenhouse gases of any country. Industrial regions there are the country’s primary source of emissions. To reduce those emissions, several pilot programs for making industrial zones greener have been established, and early results suggest the programs successfully reduce emissions, a new study finds. [Earth’s Future study] 

What’s the future of cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin?
Countries in the Eastern Nile Basin, including Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, face challenges in managing water, energy and food due to rapid population growth, limited resources, and a changing climate. Any upstream decisions affect downstream populations. A new study explores the degree to which these countries’ food, water, and energy needs are connected, and how those might change in the future. [Earth’s Future study]