07/03/2025: AI could help monitor and predict earthquakes

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Cartoon illustration of Cascadia subduction zone

Subduction zones, like this one along the western coast of North America, bring the largest earthquakes that AI can help monitor.
Credit: USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

Featured Research

New AI tool could help predict earthquakes before they happen
Scientists trained a neural network with a model of subduction zones, areas where tectonic plates are moving beneath each other and where the largest earthquakes happen, known as megathrust earthquakes. The research team used an ‘explainable AI’ which means the AI program runs its test using the models to make forecasts. It then explains to scientists where it focused for its forecasting and why. In this case, the program found that certain areas of tectonic plates moved hours to months before megathrust earthquakes, which could give scientists a better idea of where to prioritize monitoring. While the program cannot forecast earthquakes on its own yet, it can help researchers potentially better their own forecasting.  [Geophysical Research Letter study]

Model of climate mitigation option showed promise for water storage in Middle East
An analysis of the tradeoffs of stratospheric aerosol intervention for freshwater worldwide finds more benefits for drylands than wet regions like Siberia and the Amazon. The aerosols, fine particles that stay in the air and reflect sunlight, limited the increase of available water, like slowing glacial ice melting, and kept ground water from evaporating. The method performed particularly well in the Middle East. However, the aerosols decreased necessary and important runoff in many areas, runoff that is often used for irrigation or drinking water supplies. [JGR Atmospheres study]

Spring soil moisture in the Tibetan Plateau predicts summer rain in China
As wind swells over the Tibetan Plateau, it picks up the moisture in the soil and carries it as the wind travels eastward. Researchers found that if the Tibetan Plateau’s soil is extra wet in the spring, East China will see more rain than usually during the summer, while North China will see the opposite. The scientists hope this will allow for water resource management and better planning for droughts or flooding. [JGR Atmospheres study]

New mechanism explains the mysteries of deep earthquakes
By analyzing forty deep earthquakes around the world, researchers discover the key role of a dual mechanism that allows earthquakes to grow larger and release more stress. [Eos Editor’s highlight] [AGU Advances study]

United Kingdom space weather prediction system goes operational
Officials now have access to a suite of models they can use to head off damage to critical infrastructure. [Eos research spotlight] [Space Weather study]

6/26/2025: Map shows where communities face compounding climate hazards

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Combinations of heatwaves with wildfires, flooding, and crop failure will be more common by 2100. Credit: NOAA

Featured Research

Combinations of heatwaves with wildfires and other climate hazards to increase by 2100
New models show that under current greenhouse gas emissions, communities will have to battle multiple climate hazards at once. An increase of paired heatwaves and wildfires will be seen globally. Heatwaves coupled with crop failures will be more prevalent in Africa and the Americas, and in combination with soil drought around the Mediterranean. [Earth’s Future study]

Massive, exposed rock beds may have caused Snowball Earth
Earth entered two Snowball climate events, where ice covers most of the Earth, between 1 billion to 540 million years ago. How exactly the Earth came to be covered in ice has remained a mystery. Now researchers argue that the weathering of an area of land made of fresh volcanic rocks that stretched from Alaska through Northern Canada to Greenland, may be to blame. The weathering process removes carbon dioxide from the air, lowering the temperatures in a reverse greenhouse effect. The authors say ancient Earth has the perfect climate for a snowball effect, with a large volcanic explosion, low climate temperatures, and no plants that existed yet to obscure the rock’s view. [Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets study]

Synesthesia in humans inspires a new way for driverless cars to navigate busy city streets
A new machine learning model called Synesthesia of Machines outperformed other path prediction systems for AI-driven cars in a new study. The new method, which uses multiple input methods like mmWave radar, LiDAR, RBG-Depth cameras and light detection, responded faster and more accurately during model testing for intelligent transportation systems in AI-driven cars. [Radio Science study]

The risk of health problems will only increase as Earth passes planetary boundaries
A review of the latest science on “planetary boundaries” found a direct association between health risks and a breach of nine critical thresholds the researchers say Earth must maintain or risk catastrophic environmental loss. The review found a correlation between issues including increased temperatures and pollution with higher cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and worsening health for vulnerable populations. [GeoHealth review]

What’s changed—and what hasn’t—since the EPA’s endangerment finding
A scientist-authored brief played a role in the 2009 determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health. With the finding now up for reconsideration, the same scientists revisit their opinion. [Eos research spotlight] [AGU Advances study]

Where do Antarctic submarine canyons get their marine life?
A new study investigates how much of the phytoplankton in the Palmer Deep submarine canyon is homemade and how much is delivered. [Eos research highlights] [JGR Oceans study]

Early apes evolved in tropical forests disturbed by fires and volcanoes
Fossils discovered at an early Miocene site in Kenya include a new type of early ape and offer clues about the environment inhabited by human ancestors. [Eos research highlight] [Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology study]

 

6/19/2025: Extreme heat may raise risks of early and preterm births

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Graphic of the Earth with South America centered shows average cloud fraction on a scale from white to blue. Location of Hadley Cell circulation is marked.

Marine storm cloud zones have shifted poleward and narrowed, and the changes are contributing to our planet’s growing energy imbalance. Credit: Michala Garrison/ NASA Earth Observatory

AGU News

AGU and IPCC partner to expand access to publications for work on Seventh Assessment Report
Access to AGU journals will provide critical climate research and data for co-authors from developing countries and anyone facing access barriers to content. [press release]

Heat wave science roundup

  • Heatwave-flooding double-disasters are increasing [Geophysical Research Letters study]
  • Current city planning can’t keep up with combined heat and drought events [Earth’s Future study]
  • Wet heat or dry heat? Humidity lags on hottest days as climate warms [Earth’s Future study]
  • Unhoused older adults struggle to cope with rising temperatures in Phoenix [GeoHealth study]
  • How urban greenspace compares in Beijing and NYC, and who benefits [Earth’s Future study]
  • Where to hang out to avoid heat-related emergency department visits [GeoHealth study]
  • Temperature-related deaths could rise five-fold by end of century in US [GeoHealth study]
  • Urban overheating risks are personal, study finds [Earth’s Future study][press release]

Featured Research

Extreme heat may raise risks of early and preterm births
Scientists looked at the births of nearly four million babies between 1990 and 2017 and found an association between preterm and early-term births during extreme heat waves, compared to the rest of the year. Heat-related preterm births (between 28 and36 weeks) were more commonly found in women over 35 whereas women under the age of 25 had a greater association with early-term births (between 37 and 38 weeks) during the hottest days of each year. [GeoHealth study][see also: flooding disasters]

Earth’s storm cloud zones are shrinking, and that means warmer oceans
Earth’s cloudiest regions form a band around the equator and in the middle latitudes, where converging winds generate storms. These bands have been contracting by 1.5% to 3% per decade since the turn of the century. The shrinkage lets more sunlight reach the surface, warming the oceans and tipping the balance of energy absorbed and energy reflected back to space. [Geophysical Research Letters study][NASA Earth Observatory graphics]

AI forecasts PM2.5 pollution at U.S. embassies and consulates worldwide
Fine particulates (PM2.5) bring serious, expensive risks for cardiovascular health. The U.S. State Department and EPA monitor air quality at 80 embassies. Researchers at NASA applied deep learning to satellite imagery, using the ground monitoring data for calibration to extend accurate 3-day forecasts to 269 embassy locations worldwide. [Earth and Space Science study]

Fracking high stress faults risks bigger earthquakes
Injecting fluids underground for fracking, wastewater disposal or geothermal energy raises pressure in the rock, which can cause small earthquakes. New research finds stress, pore pressure, and rock structure all affect earthquake magnitudes, and offers better interpretation of seismic signals to assess the risks from these projects. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Water density shifts can drive rapid changes in AMOC strength
High-latitude variations in density, which appear to be driven by changes in atmospheric pressure, can propagate to midlatitudes and affect the current’s strength within just a year. [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

How Greenland’s glacial troughs influence ocean circulation
Glacial troughs in Antarctica promote mixing of warm and cold water, affecting global climate. A new study explores whether the same is true in troughs along Greenland’s coastline. [Eos research spotlight][ Journal of Geophysical Research Letters: Oceans study]

5/30/2025: California’s earthquakes run late

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Aerial photograph of a dry grass plain, blue sky in background. A furrow of the San Andreas Fault runs vertically.

The San Andreas Fault cuts across southern California’s Carrizo Plain. Credit: Doc Searls

Featured Research

Cooling the Great Barrier Reef likely presents low risk of remote problems
A case study of the Great Barrier Reef, which has suffered coral bleaching from record high ocean temperatures in recent years, used the Community Earth System Model to investigate effects of interventions such as marine cloud brightening far from the treatment location under a spectrum of scenarios and intensities. Results suggest limited, localized cooling over the reef in summer has a low risk of remote impacts. The authors say their approach can be applied to risk management of climate interventions for other sensitive ecosystems. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Earthquakes on California’s faults tend to run late
California’s fault systems have had an outsized influence on earthquake forecast models. Intrigued that New Zealand’s earthquakes are rarely “late,” researchers examined the time of recurrence for 210 faults in five tectonically active regions around the world, drawing on data from 890 large prehistoric and historic earthquakes. California was the outlier, possibly because of the predominance of fast-moving slip-faults there. The researchers suggest a different calculation may be more useful for forecasters elsewhere.[Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth study]

On-the-ground solar storm nowcasting for the UK
Severe to extreme geomagnetic storms can induce currents in ground-based infrastructure, with unfortunate consequences. New nowcast and forecast codes estimate geomagnetically induced currents in Great Britain’s high voltage power transmission network, high pressure gas pipeline network and railway network using ground and satellite data.[Space Weather study]

River alkalinization and ocean acidification face off in coastal waters
Factors ranging from rainfall to nutrient runoff to changing mining and agricultural practices drove decades-long pH trends in the Chesapeake Bay. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]

AI pictures augment rock datasets key to subsurface engineering
Boosting digital rock images with AI-powered augmentation and quality analysis makes the invisible underground environment more accessible. [Eos editors’ highlight][Water Resources Research study]

5/22/2025: Who’s exposed to oil and gas wastewater?

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Oil production from submerged federal lands on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. Credit: Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement

AGU News

Weather & climate 100-hour science-a-thon next week
U.S. federally-funded climate scientists and meteorologists will hold a public-facing, nonpartisan 100-hour relay of virtual 20-minute talks sharing their work and why it matters for every American. Viewers will get a chance to interact with the speakers via moderated questions. [livestream Wednesday 28 May to Sunday 1 June]

Featured Research

Storm prediction gets 10 times faster thanks to AI
Forecasters hope new algorithms will lead to earlier warnings of when dangerous weather is on the way. [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

Who’s exposed to oil and gas wastewater?
Oil and gas extraction uses a lot of water — four trillion liters in 2021. Most of the contaminated wastewater (98%) is disposed into deep injection wells, but demand for fresh water means “produced water” is sometimes put to other uses, such as irrigation, livestock watering or road treatments. Contaminated water can also leak or spill. Information is spotty about exactly which chemicals contaminate the water and their toxicity, mobility and ultimate environmental fate. A review of what is known about human exposure identifies key knowledge gaps. [GeoHealth study]

Heatwave and flooding double disasters are increasing
Some atmospheric conditions have the potential to generate paired disasters, like heat + drought or heavy rain + wind. The conditions that bring extreme heat and extreme rain are typically opposing, but synchronicity has increased 34% since the 1980s and is rising. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Scientists reveal hidden heat and flood hazards across Texas
A wider swath of the Lone Star State may be affected by more heat and flood events than previous recordkeeping suggests. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]

Deforestation is reducing rainfall in the Amazon
Researchers found that between 2002 and 2015, a 3.2% reduction in Brazilian forest cover led to a 5.4% reduction in precipitation levels. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]

Heat and pollution events are deadly, especially in the Global South
Researchers found that the combination of heat waves and high PM2.5 pollution led to nearly 700,000 premature deaths in the past 30 years — most of which occurred in the Global South. [Eos research spotlight][GeoHealth study]

Earth’s last rapid global warming event had a long recovery
During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, global temperatures jumped 5 degrees Celsius in conjunction with a burst of carbon dioxide. New research suggests the recovery took more than 140,000 years — which may be bad news for our current carbon cycle situation. [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

Shade is not enough to cool old forests in a new climate
It’s usually cooler under a forest than outside the forest, but that natural temperature buffering didn’t make global warming any less strong during the last 45 years in an old-growth forest of Oregon. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study]

 

5/15/2025: California almond harvest could halve by 2100

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close up photograph of almonds on a tree

Almonds maturing in California’s Central San Joaquin Valley. Credit: PAC55/Wikimedia

Featured Research

Unchecked climate warming may shrink California’s almond harvest 49% by end of century
Even under moderate warming, producers can expect a 17% yield reduction, but innovation in farming techniques could offset the damage, according to a new study that models the effects of temperature and humidity changes at each developmental stage. [Earth’s Future study]

Rise of electric vehicles shifts pollution concerns to brakes and tires
A case study in Tianjin city, China, inventoried the vehicle emissions that don’t spill out of exhaust pipes, finding fine particulates (PM2.5) release during wear on brakes and tires surpassed particulates produced from combustion engines. [Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres study]

Dust devils could dust solar panels on Mars
Dry whirlwinds roam the Red Planet, often rising hundreds of meters above the surface. When conditions are right, they lift bright, reflective dust off a layer of coarser grained surface material, leaving dark tracks that mark their passage for months after the vortex has passed. The first high-resolution global survey of dust devil tracks found they peaked in summer around 60 degrees north and south of the equator, coinciding with the peak of Mars’ dust storm season. The authors suggest placing solar-powered missions in the path of heavy dust devil traffic to take advantage of the occasional scouring. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Panama connected the Americas 4.1 million years ago
4.6 million years ago, the Central America Seaway still flowed between the Americas, but it was growing shallow. Half a million years later, thin channels may have carried animals across the isthmus, but the ocean basins were functionally separate on the ocean scale, say the authors of a new geochemical study. Isotopes bound in the fossils of tiny ocean animals record the end of exchange of seawater and nutrients between the oceans. Previous estimates put this date at 3.2 million years ago based on evolutionary divergence of related animals in the Atlantic and Pacific.  [Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology study].

New study questions Curiosity Rover’s methane detection on Mars
Curiosity’s detection of the gas, if atmospheric, could be an indicator of life on the Red Planet. But skeptics say further work is needed to rule out the rover itself as the source of the methane. [Eos research spotlight][Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets study]

The uncertain fate of the Beaufort Gyre
Climate models produce widely varying predictions for what will happen to this influential ocean current, but most models predict it will weaken or stop. [Eos research spotlight][Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans study]

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4/24/2025: Solar power droughts on the rise

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Cloudy outlook for solar power? Heat, weather and pollution cause power generation shortages. Credit: Piergiuliano Chesi

AGU News

Protecting the global scientific enterprise
AGU is gathering stories of impact to share with leaders and policy makers. We particularly want to hear from AGU members outside the United States to make the critical case that threats to the scientific enterprise are interconnected and global. [share your story] [message from AGU leaders]

U.S. Federal Administration Science Tracker
Keep up with major and minor changes to science policies from the Trump administration with a handy chart from AGU’s Eos magazine. The tracker is sortable by date and one of four categories relevant to Earth and space scientists. Every item in the tracker includes a one-sentence “what happened” explanation and a link to a story from Eos or another trusted source. [U.S. Science Policy Tracker] 

AGU leadership available at the European Geophysical Union meeting
President Brandon Jones and Interim ED & CEO Janice Lachance will be on site at EGU in Vienna next week and available for interviews. Email [email protected] to connect.

Featured Research

Climate-fueled droughts trouble Africa’s Great Green Wall
The African Union launched the African Great Green Wall initiative in 2007 to hold back expansion of the Sahara into the Sahel. Knowledge of long-term weather patterns informs management of the region. An examination of rain and drought from 1950 to 2022 finds a rising drought trend which accelerated in the mid-nineties, when severe droughts hit the northern parts of the region. [JGR Biogeosciences study]

150,000 years of geomagnetism from eastern equatorial Africa
A 129-meter core of sediments from the bed of Lake Chala, a crater lake near Mt. Kilimanjaro, records changes in Earth’s magnetic field and environment over much of human prehistory. Comparable to ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, the new core is the longest geomagnetic record from continental Africa. [Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems study]

Earthworms not necessarily the bad guys of Arctic carbon story
Earthworms are burrowing into Arctic ecosystems where icesheets once eradicated them. What does the arrival of these voracious soil detritovores mean for tundra carbon reservoirs? It’s complicated, new research found. In experiments, meadows lost soil carbon while heath gained. But earthworm presence encouraged more root biomass in both vegetation types resulting in a net carbon wash for the meadow and gain for heath. [JRG Biogeosciences study]

Isolated wetlands are carbon-storing powerhouses
Non-floodplain wetlands may account for more than half the world’s wetlands and store about twice the carbon of wetlands connected to frequently flooded streams, rivers, and lake areas. [Earth’s Future study]

Compost and biochar could boost carbon sequestration by crushed rock
Crushed rock additives may also help decrease soil emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as nitrous oxide and methane.[Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study]

Solar power shortages are on the rise
More communities are relying on solar power as a source of renewable energy, but increasing demand, light-blocking pollution and climate change threaten its reliability with “solar droughts.” [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

320 million years of polar wander
A new quantitative assessment of the wanderings of Earth’s axis of spin from the Carboniferous to today rules out previous suggestions of sudden shifts, but finds oscillations of up to 20 degrees. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study]

4/17/2025: Strong solar flare disrupts air traffic visibility

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An ultraviolet image of the Sun colorized teal against a black background shows the hottest

An solar flare classed X3.3 erupted on 9 February 2024, seen in extreme ultraviolet. Credit: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory

Featured Research

Solar flare fritzed satellite tracking of aircraft
To avoid collisions, pilots and air traffic controllers rely on a network of global navigation satellites. But the network is susceptible to heavy weather in space. A strong solar flare on 9 February 2024 caused gaps and position errors in data broadcasts of aircraft identity and location. Researchers describe the event and offer solutions. [Space Weather study]

Weird weather in North Atlantic impacts tropical Pacific tuna catch
A new study explains how spring water temperatures in the North Atlantic can make waves in the autumn yellowfin tuna population, far away in the Pacific warm pool. A pattern of unusual sea surface temperatures called the North Atlantic Tripole is associated with 8.3% larger catch in its positive phase and 16.9% smaller catch in its negative phase. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Can the world’s cargo ships meet carbon targets?
The U.N.’s International Maritime Organization member (IMO) countries (absent the United States) agreed Friday to levy carbon fees encouraging adoption of cleaner fuels. International shipping conveys over 80% of global trade by volume and emits an estimated 3% of the world’s greenhouse gases. Surveyed experts predict the industry can hit the IMO’s 2030 carbon targets with operational improvements. Longer term gains will require alternative fuels. [Earth’s Future study][UBC press release]

When ice ages end, ocean circulation fine-tunes ocean heat
New Antarctic ice core data bolster model predictions of ocean heat content during glacials and interglacials. [research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

Martian magmas live long and prosper
Marsquakes detected by the InSight rover at Cerberus Fossae may be volcanic.[Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets study][Editors’ highlight]

 

 

4/10/2025: Corals grow in cold water where methane seeps

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Photograph: Dry tundra grass crumbles where it meets the Arctic ocean. Permafrost is visible in the soil of broken edges. Grey sky in background and grey water to the right.

Coastal bluffs at Drew Point, on Alaska’s coastal plain, can erode 20 meters per year. As soil melts, storm waves may bite abrupt and unpredictable chunks out of the coastline.
Credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Featured Research

Coldwater corals thrive near methane cold seeps
Most corals live in sunny, oxygen-rich waters off tropical coasts. But in the dark, cold, low-oxygen depths of Norway’s Hola trough, corals coexist with methane cold seeps bubbling up from gas hydrates frozen in the ocean floor. A new study suggests a “delicate equilibrium” of diverse microbial life, dissolved organic carbon and biochemical mechanisms associated with the seeps in the low oxygen depths benefit the corals. Further warming could release a burst of methane, upsetting that balance. [Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences study]

Storms will eat Alaska’s Arctic coastal tundra in increasingly unpredictable bites
New research from Point Hope, Alaska, finds large land losses are inevitable on the Arctic coastal plain along Alaska’s north coast. Predictable yearly coastal retreat will shift to sudden losses from extreme storms as thawing soil makes coastlines more vulnerable to waves and rising seas. Remote coastal Inupiat communities may need to step up timelines for adaptation or relocation. [Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface study]

Sailors’ historical accounts key to rare, glowing “milky seas”
Satellites have caught the mysterious milky waters lighting more than 100,000 square kilometers of open ocean, but the phenomenon is so rare that only a single scientific expedition has encountered it, leaving scientists in the dark about when, where and why it happens — and if the leading bacterial suspect, Vibrio harveyi, is the true source of the eerie glow. A new global database assembles 400 years of eyewitness accounts with the aim of predicting future bioluminescent blooms.[Earth and Space Science study][CSU press release]

“Thirstwaves” are the new climate threat for US crops
Like heat waves, these can damage crops and ecosystems and increase pressure on water resources. New research shows they’re becoming more severe. [Eos research spotlight][Earth’s Future study]

Restoring preindustrial CO2 levels won’t bring back all Arctic sea ice. This may make North Atlantic winter weather weird.
Incomplete Arctic sea ice recovery results in equatorward-shifted winter jets. The North Atlantic jet shift is particularly uncertain due to the ocean circulation acting as an additional driver. [Eos Editors’ highlight][Geophysical Research Letters study]

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4/2/2025: The rivers that science says shouldn’t exist

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In a new paper, scientists call the Casiquiare River (running north to south in the center of this image), which connects the Orinoco River (running east to west) with the Rio Negro, “the hydrologic equivalent of a wormhole between two galaxies.” Credit: Coordenação-Geral de Observação da Terra/INPE, CC BY-SA 2.0

Featured Research

The rivers that science says shouldn’t exist
At first glance, these waterways — flowing two ways, draining to two oceans — make little hydrologic sense. A new review article details why they are the way they are. [Eos research spotlight][Water Resources Research study]

Earth’s rotational pole could wander 27 meters under high-emission scenario
As ice melts and water masses shift around Earth, the planet’s rotational pole moves. By 2100 under a high-emissions scenario, the pole could wander 27 meters from where it was in 1900, with change driven largely by Greenland and Antarctic ice melt, a new study finds. It would wander about 12 meters in a low-emissions scenario. [Geophysical Research Letters study][see also: groundwater pumping nudged Earth’s spin]

More than 80% of Canada’s 2023 wildfires burned over permafrost
Canada’s 2023 record-breaking wildfire season was driven by extremely dry conditions with below-average rainfall. More than 80 percent of those fires burned on top of land with permafrost and will likely speed up permafrost thaw, releasing carbon, a new study finds. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Smartphone heat safety apps underestimate wet-bulb temperatures
Wet-bulb temperature is an important indicator for the safety of outdoor work and sports. Some smartphone applications offer estimates of wet-bulb temps and suggest modifications to activities, but these estimates are often cooler than on-site sensors, especially during the hottest periods, a new study reveals.  [GeoHealth study]

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