The great gerbil can carry plague throughout central Asia. Its range, along with other plague-carrying rodents, is expanding due to climate change, increasing the risk of plague spread and outbreaks, according to new research published in GeoHealth. Credit: wikimedia

AGU News

Ocean Sciences Meeting 2024 scientific program online
The scientific program for #OSM24, held 18-23 February in New Orleans, is now available online. Browse nearly 5,000 abstracts on all things ocean science and register today! [OSM24 scientific program][OSM24 press registration]

Climate engagement at AGU23: open dialogue, open minds, open science
On the heels of the National Climate Assessment and looking ahead to COP28, a letter from AGU’s President, Dr. Lisa J. Graumlich, outlines AGU23 Annual Meeting sessions and events at the intersection of climate science and action. [From the Prow post][AGU23 press registration]

Featured Research

Plague-carrying gerbils to spread in Central Asia with climate change
Researchers confirm more than 3,000 cases of plague-infected rodents, including the great gerbil and yellow ground squirrel, between 2000 and 2020 in the Zhambyl region of Southern Kazakhstan. Rising temperatures will only bolster the rodent population, expanding their range northeast toward the Qaragandy and Almaty regions by the year 2100 and increasing the likelihood of an outbreak. [GeoHealth research]

Greener forests can help track volcanic activity
In Yellowstone National Park, scientists observed greener forests associated with volcanic CO₂ emissions. Scientists can use this greening to remotely track the emissions, which are often a precursor to eruptions. The method is a safe and effective way to gauge potential volcanic hazards. [Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems research]

Volcanic origin for ringed Venus structures
The formation of coronae, semi-circular structures on the surface of Venus, may be a result of surface and subsurface volcanism, as suggested by new observations of lava flows which appear to have flowed upslope. But subsurface volcanic activity likely tilted the topography, explaining the curious lava flows and concentric features. [JGR Planets research]

Oysters create more resilient coastlines as sea levels rise
Oyster reefs grow with sea level rise and self-repair after extreme events, making them highly adaptive coastal barriers. When paired with submerged breakwaters, they can reduce wave impacts by up to 75% over a hundred-year period and increase crucial  along sheltered coastlines. [JGR Earth Surface research]

The first slow-slip events seen off southern Costa Rica
Five events observed off the Osa Peninsula shed new light on the role that these small, slow earthquakes can play in strain accumulation and tsunami hazards along subduction zones. [Geophysical Research Letters research] [Eos research spotlight | Spanish translation]

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.

About 1.3 million years ago, climate swings and resulting changes in vegetation likely pushed early humans to relocate from sites on the southeastern Chinese Loess Plateau, according to new research in Geophysical Research Letters. Credit: Stefan Wagener

AGU News

AGU23 housing deadline TODAY, 15 November
Press registration for #AGU23 is open and will remain open during the meeting, held in San Francisco and online 11-15 December 2023. Book hotels at the conference rate by the end of today, 15 November. [AGU23 press center] [AGU23 scientific program]

Volcano experts available for comment
AGU supplies a list of volcano experts available for comment to the media. [expert list][recent commentary on the ethics of geoengineering volcanoes]

Featured Research

Early humans in East Asia relocated due to changing climate
During the mid-Pleistocene climate transition, around 1.26 million years ago, changes in climate likely caused early humans to relocate in pursuit of food and shelter. Archaeological evidence suggests that early humans moved to sites that were forested with easy access to water as opposed to exposed and resource-poor areas. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

First earthquake warning system made entirely from artificial intelligence
The Ensemble Earthquake Early Warning System (E3WS) uses machine learning to detect earthquakes, locate their epicenters, and estimate their magnitude from the first three seconds of seismic activity. The E3WS will provide users with the extra seconds necessary to take actions to reduce personal disaster risk. [JGR Solid Earth research]

Aquifer “memory” causes subsidence to shift in California
Historic groundwater pumping in western California led to dramatic subsidence, which made that region less susceptible to drought-driven subsidence today, a new study finds. Southern California is now experiencing the highest rates of subsidence in the state because of drought, but both regions will soon see record-breaking subsidence because of ongoing groundwater depletion. [Water Resources Research research]

Drier soils will bring more iron and phytoplankton to the Pacific Ocean
As temperatures rise, global desertification will increase the amount of dust blown to the Pacific Ocean. This dust contains iron, a necessary nutrient for phytoplankton growth. As a result, climate change will likely increase phytoplankton growth in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but other nutrient deficiencies will curb growth in other areas of the Pacific. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

A wavier jet stream won’t cause stronger temperature extremes after all
Rapid warming in the Arctic may cause the atmospheric jet stream to slow down and meander, which previous studies suggest could lead to long-lasting extreme temperatures. New research finds that while the jet stream will likely meander as expected, temperature anomalies will be less extreme than previous predicted. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

Climate tipping points could be triggered by “committed warming”
As the planet warms, climate tipping points, such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest, become increasingly likely. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions won’t be enough to avoid tipping points, as the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere will continue to warm Earth. New research suggests a net-zero emissions approach is necessary to avoid catastrophe. [Earth’s Future research] [Eos research spotlight]

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.

An extreme El Nino event in 2014-2016 led to an extra 7 millimeters (about 0.3 inches) of sea-level rise, according to a new study in Geophysical Research Letters. Credit: hermansyah/unsplash

AGU News

Press registration for Ocean Sciences 2024 is now open
Press registration for Ocean Sciences 2024 (#OSM24), held in New Orleans and online from 18-23 February 2024, is now open. [media advisory][OSM24 press center]

AGU23 Annual Meeting press registration open, program online
Press registration for #AGU23 is open and will remain open during the meeting, held in San Francisco and online 11-15 December 2023. Book hotels at the conference rate by 15 November. [AGU23 press center] [AGU23 scientific program]

Featured research

An extreme ENSO in 2014-2016 sped up sea-level rise
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) changes global weather patterns, including precipitation and land-based water storage. An extreme ENSO event from 2014-2016 led to an additional 7 millimeters (about 0.3 inches) of sea-level rise largely due to a drier Amazon Basin over that period, a new study finds. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

China will warm less than expected by the end of the century
China is expected to warm an average of 0.65 °C (about 1.2 °F) less than previously predicted by the end of the 21^st century, a new study finds. The milder forecast reduces the impact of extreme heat on the nation’s population. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

The ethics of volcano geoengineering
Humans have tampered with volcanoes’ eruptions in the past, both intentionally and accidentally. In a new paper, scientists weigh the ethics and balance of what safety could be gained and what the risks of volcanic geoengineering could be. [Earth’s Future research]

Spraying sea salt into clouds to cool Earth’s temperature has mixed results
Scientists propose marine cloud brightening (MCB), which uses sea salt to make clouds more reflective, as an alternative to stratospheric aerosol injections because MCB’s impacts are more localized. Deploying MCB in one region can have unintended consequences in other regions of the world, but overall, the method reduces the risk of crossing many major climate tipping points, a new study finds. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

Machine learning highlights ways to improve flood mitigation
New research shows that home flood insurance coverage is often a reactive purchase in response to flooding, while top-down policies that focus on community resilience may offer more robust protection. [Earth’s Future research] [Eos editor’s highlight]

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.

An “ice-free” Arctic summer, generally defined as having a sea-ice extent smaller than 1 million square kilometers (386,100 square miles), may come about 12 years later than previously predicted, according to new research from AGU’s journal Earth’s Future. Credit: NASA Goddard

Featured research

Arctic may experience first ice-free summer later than expected
Some studies predict that the Arctic’s first ice-free summer will be around 2044; however, they fail to consider how sea ice has historically changed on a regional scale. Climate models combined with regional observations find that the Arctic’s first summer without ice will likely occur 12 years later than previously estimated. [Earth’s Future research]

Largest recorded marsquake likely has tectonic origins
Most of Mars’ seismic activity can be traced to meteoroids striking the planet’s surface, but NASA’s InSight mission recorded a major marsquake in an area with no new impact crater. As a result, scientists now suggest that it may be tectonic activity, not a meteoroid, that triggered the marsquake. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

World’s largest water diversion project sees moderate success
To address a water shortage, China has been sending water from the wet south to the dry north in the world’s largest diversions — also one of the most controversial. The effort has some success with surface water recovery but more limited success with groundwater and terrestrial water, a new study finds.  [Water Resources Research research]

Surface water can be a better indicator of malaria than rainfall
Current malaria prediction tools use precipitation data to indirectly estimate surface water, where mosquitoes breed. But models using high-resolution surface water data can better mimic how malaria spreads and outperform precipitation-based predictions, a new study finds. [GeoHealth research]

Commitment to Paris Agreement could save thousands of lives in Chile
A growing population and higher vehicle use contribute to air pollution that is above global health guidelines in Santiago, Chile’s capital city. Adherence to the Paris Climate Agreement by 2050 could prevent more than 3,000 premature deaths and 2,590 new asthma cases in Santiago. [JGR Atmospheres research]

Melting glaciers send lead into coastal waters
The amount of lead currently found in glaciated environments is too high to be explained by atmospheric deposition alone, even with the phasing out of leaded gasoline. New experiments find that glacier sediments release more lead into meltwater with warmer temperatures. [JGR Biogeosciences research] [Eos editor’s highlight]

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.

Extreme water temperatures, both hot and cold, result in coral bleaching events throughout the Caribbean. Credit: G. Torda/ARC

AGU News

AGU 2023 Annual Meeting program now online
Staff, freelance and student journalists, along with press officers and institutional writers covering the conference, are eligible for free registration for AGU’s annual meeting (#AGU23), in San Francisco, CA and online 11-15 December. [program][AGU23 Press Center][Press registration and housing][Media advisories]

Research roundup: eclipse science
This Saturday, much of the western U.S. will experience an annular eclipse. What do scientists learn from such events? [eclipse curbs equatorial electrojet][nighttime ionospheric irregularities after an eclipse][eclipses can alter ozone][Triennial Earth-Sun Summit 2024]

Featured research

Extreme ocean warming and cooling result in widespread coral bleaching
In the last 40 years, marine heatwaves and cold spells have resulted in widespread coral bleaching throughout the Caribbean Sea. These events have become more frequent with climate change and are expected to heavily impact reef ecosystems. [JGR Oceans research]

Subglacial rivers melt ice shelves and impact ocean circulation
Below the Antarctic Ice Sheet, rivers carry large volumes of meltwater from the ice’s base to cavities that form beneath protruding ice shelves. A new study of The Amundsen Sea Embayment found these rivers can hasten shelf melting and have extensive impacts on ocean circulation. [JGR Oceans research]

Vegetation curbs debris flows after wildfires
Wildfires leave slopes barren and susceptible to dangerous debris flows after intense rainfall. Researchers found that in the western U.S., recovering two-thirds of an area’s vegetation can stabilize hillslopes and prevent debris flows. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

Historical aurora records reveal shortened solar cycle
Fastidious night sky observations from Korean historical texts provide novel evidence for a short, 8-year solar cycle in the Maunder Minimum, which lasted from 1645 to 1715. The departure from the typical 11-year solar cycle is an important marker for anomalous “grand” minima with exceptionally low magnetic activity, such as the Maunder. [AGU Advances research] [Eos Research Spotlight]

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.

The current solar cycle is intense, forcing space-oriented companies to face inclement space weather. Credit: NASA Goddard

Featured research

Space companies face heightened solar maximum
Space companies face inclement weather as the current solar cycle has produced the highest rates of monthly sunspots in over two decades, with 163 and 159 in June and July, respectively. [Space Weather research]

Hydrogen insulates gas giants’ ultra-hot cores
Hydrogen, a primary component in gas giant planets, may be the reason why these distant worlds are able to maintain scorching internal temperatures despite their ice-cold surfaces. Researchers find that in its hot, liquid form, hydrogen has low thermal conductivity, making it a great insulator. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

Researchers pinpoint source of Turkey-Syria Earthquake tsunami
On 6 February 2023, two large earthquakes struck southeast Turkey and the northern border of Syria, generating a series of aftershocks and a mysterious tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea. Researchers now say the tsunami originated from landslides and liquefaction around Turkey’s Iskenderun Bay. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

Europe is getting drier and hotter
In 2022, western Europe experienced its hottest summer on record, resulting in more than 61,000 deaths. Low winds and an influx of hot, dry air are partially to blame, and similar weather patterns will be more likely with climate change, researchers say. [Geophysical Research Letters research]

Ocean’s largest Oxygen Deficient Zone is getting stronger
The world’s largest ocean Oxygen Deficient Zone, located in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific, has strengthened by 30% in the last 50 years. There, rapidly depleting oxygen supplies could drastically alter the carbon cycle and threaten marine organisms. [Global Biogeochemical Cycles research]

Exploring the mantle through microseisms
A new method for examining the tiny vibrations of Earth caused by ocean swells could help reveal details of deep-Earth structure. [Geophysical Research Letters research] [Eos Research Spotlight]

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.

Hot weather is tied to an increase in hospital visits for mental and behavioral problems, but more so for youths in lower socioeconomic groups, according to new GeoHealth research. Credit: Gene Gallin/Unsplash

Featured research 

Hot weather may exacerbate mental and behavioral issues in youth
Higher temperatures correlate with an increase in emergency room visits related to mental and behavioral disorders in youths. However, sociodemographic variables, such as income or race, can increase the risk of heat-related symptoms even more as vulnerable communities lack access to the same resources as wealthier populations. [GeoHealth research] 

Heavy rainfall may aggravate asthma symptoms
Increased downpours due to climate change could spell trouble for asthmatics. A new study in New York state found emergency department visits for asthma increased by a small yet significant number following heavy rainfall in non-winter months. Studies conducted in Philadelphia and Maryland yielded similar results, suggesting a trend in rainfall-triggered asthma flare ups. [GeoHealth research] 

New NASA satellite trio will help scientists study the ocean
Over the next five years, NASA will launch three new satellites to enhance scientists’ abilities to study aquatic science from a global perspective. Together, data from the satellite trio will help researchers take a “deeper dive” into harmful algal blooms, oil spills, climate change’s impacts on phytoplankton, and more. [JGR Biogeosciences research] 

Clouds help the Arctic cool off in the wintertime
Most clouds warm Earth’s surface, but 40% of low clouds over Arctic sea ice are cooling the region’s winter climate as they allow longwave radiation to escape from Earth to space. This effect nearly cancels out radiative warming from the other 60% of low clouds. [Geophysical Research Letters research] 

Listening to the temperature of the ocean with seismic microphones
Global warming is changing ocean temperatures, but measuring temperatures in the deep ocean is a challenge. A new study used sounds from small earthquakes to estimate deep ocean temperatures in the East Indian Ocean. Sound waves travel thousands of kilometers underwater, and the warmer the ocean, the faster sound travels. With the help of an underwater microphone, scientists can capture those sounds and gauge deep ocean temperatures.  [JGR Solid Earth research] 

Better bottom-up estimates of wetland methane emissions
Limited monitoring of methane emissions from tropical wetlands could be obscuring these environments’ role in climate change. New analyses using more data could help shed light on methane emissions worldwide and help reduce uncertainty in climate models. [AGU Advances research] [Eos Research Spotlight] 

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.