6/11/2026: How long life on Earth could last

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The sun shining over the face of the Earth as seen from space, with Earth's surface in the foreground and the sun in the background

The sun will eventually grow too bright for Earthly life to persist, but exactly when remains uncertain. A new study suggests the limit may lie hundreds of millions of years farther down the road than earlier research estimated. Credit: NASA

AGU News

AGU opposes rule that would rewrite the terms of US Science
Last week, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget proposed a federal rule that would embed political control into the rules governing federal research funding in the United States. If finalized as written, this rule would give political appointees veto power over peer review, allow the government to cancel active grants mid-project with minimal justification, ban entire categories of science from federal funding, and restrict researchers’ ability to publish their work and attend scientific conferences. AGU President Brandon Jones urges the AGU community to submit a comment through AGU’s Action Center before 13 July. [video statement on YouTube] [written statement From the Prow] [AGU Action Center comment submission page]

Featured Research

Life on Earth could last hundreds of millions of years longer than once thought
As the sun steadily brightens with age, life on Earth will eventually end. Either the planet will get too hot for life, or the rising heat will increase the rate at which it stores CO2 in carbonate rocks — reducing the greenhouse effect but leaving plants too little CO2 for photosynthesis, effectively ending life anyway. Previous studies of the second scenario estimated life has another 1.35 billion years to go. But new model simulations of future climate scenarios indicate it could last up to 1.8 billion years from now, since some photosynthetic life may thrive even at low CO2 levels. In this case, life will last about as long as Earth’s oceans, which will eventually be lost to space as the brightening sun heats the planet. [JGR Atmospheres study]

Restoring peatlands can reduce fires, Indonesia’s efforts show
After draining and deforestation paved the way for widespread peatland wildfires in 2015, efforts to restore Indonesia’s peatlands may be paying off. Damming canals and pumping in groundwater to re-wet the land resulted in 2.6 fewer fires per square kilometer (6.7 per square mile) in restored peatlands than in unrestored ones in 2019, based on satellite measurements. Though climate also played a role, researchers estimated those efforts contributed 38% of the drop in fires across over 3,900 square kilometers (1,500 square miles) of restored peatland between 2015 and 2019 — both El Niño years, which tend to make Indonesia drier. The results show restoration should remain a priority, the researchers wrote, though climate variability may render its benefits invisible in some El Niño years, such as 2023. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Young, planted forests gobble CO2 to get leafy fast, potentially helping climate
Across China, planted forests upped their leaf area about 66% faster than natural forests from 2000 to 2022, according to satellite data and machine learning analysis. Even when comparing forests of similar age and growing conditions, planted forests got leafier 4.6% faster nationally, with an even greater difference in mixed and evergreen forests. That’s partly because those planted forests are younger and respond more strongly to rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere, using it to grow more vigorously. Although natural forests start outpacing planted ones once the latter hit around 40 years of age, researchers said the results still highlight how planted forests can help absorb CO2 to support climate action. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions slowed sea ice loss
Arctic sea ice has been shrinking over the past four decades, but after 2000, the retreat sped up abruptly. Sunlight-blocking aerosols from the 1982 El Chichón and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions counteracted the ice-melting effect of greenhouse gases during the 80s and 90s; if the volcanoes had not erupted, ice would have diminished 1.5 times faster before the turn of the millennium. Climate models accounting for both human and natural influences predict the arrival of ice-free Arctic summers decades earlier than those that only incorporate human emissions, around 2049 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels. This timeframe generally agrees with estimates based on sea ice thickness. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

In some cases, hurricanes may help salt marshes withstand sea level rise
In 2017, Hurricane Irma dumped up to eight centimeters of new sediment in some coastal salt marshes, according to an analysis of 37 sites across four marshes tucked behind barrier islands from Florida to South Carolina. The finding suggests that although storms often erode salt marshes, they can also — under the right conditions of exposure, location and wind and wave strength — help build them back up. When this occurs, it makes salt marshes more resilient to sea level rise, which can kill off salt marsh plants via long periods of inundation. [JGR Earth Surface study]

Mangroves may be losing their grip on carbon storage as sea levels rise
Locally, mangroves can sometimes adapt to rising seas, but global trends look troubling. [Eos research spotlight] [Earth’s Future study]

Rocket launches and reentries harm Earth’s ozone layer
Solid-state fuels—recently used to help launch astronauts to the Moon for the first time in decades—appear to be the fuel type with the most detrimental effects on the ozone. [Eos research spotlight] [Earth’s Future study]

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6/4/2026: Storms on Titan can make 10-foot waves of methane and ethane

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Vapors rise from the surface of a rocky sea on an alien world, with mountains in the distance and planetary bodies floating in the hazy sky above

An artist’s rendering of the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan. Though Titan is the only other world in our solar system with standing lakes and seas, its liquid bodies are made of methane and ethane, not water. Credit: Stan Richard; NASA

AGU News 

AGU opposes rule that would rewrite the terms of US Science
Last week, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget proposed a federal rule that would embed political control into the rules governing federal research funding in the United States. If finalized as written, this rule would give political appointees veto power over peer review, allow the government to cancel active grants mid-project with minimal justification, ban entire categories of science from federal funding, and restrict researchers’ ability to publish their work and attend scientific conferences. AGU President Brandon Jones urges the AGU community to submit a comment through AGU’s Action Center before 13 July. [statement From the Prow] 

Featured Research 

Storms on Titan can make 10-foot waves on methane and ethane seas
Saturn’s moon Titan has lakes and seas of methane and ethane, making it the only other world in our solar system with standing liquids on its surface. New simulations show that the same wind speed generates waves 30 times larger on Titan’s liquid bodies than on Earth’s. While daily winds on Titan are too weak to coax out any waves at all, stronger winds from spring and summer storms likely make waves up to about 1.5 feet high, on average, and up to around 10 feet high when storm winds blow their hardest. Based on their direction, storm waves likely sculpted the eastern shore of Ontario Lacus, a lake in the south of Titan. [JGR Planets study] 

Earth’s ballooning energy imbalance locks in more warming than expected
At the top of Earth’s atmosphere, the planet is gaining more energy from the Sun than it loses to space, an imbalance felt as warming temperatures on the ground. The gap is widening; the energy differential has more than doubled since 2001. Satellite measurements show energy accumulating in the climate system much faster than models predict. This means the ocean is absorbing more heat than expected and more future warming is locked in. If global societies were to restrict greenhouse gas emissions to very low levels starting now, the warming trend would not turn around before the 2040s, more than 10 years later than previous estimates. Surface temperatures would continue to rise as the extra heat already absorbed was distributed throughout Earth’s systems. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

See also:  

  • Global warming has accelerated in the last decade [press release] [Geophysical Research Letters study] 
  • Ocean will burp accumulated heat in an ideal cooling world [AGU Advances study]
  • Earth’s energy imbalance more than doubled in recent decades [AGU Advances commentary]

Air pollution may raise hospitalization risk for type 2 diabetics with other conditions 
Short-term air pollution exposure puts those with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, hypertension or peripheral vascular disease at greater risk of hospitalization. An analysis of over 92,000 hospital admissions of type 2 diabetics in China’s Sichuan Province, over half of which also had one of the comorbidities, showed air pollution raised hospitalization risk 1.5% to 4.3% depending on the comorbidity, especially around six to seven days after exposure. The resulting hospital costs totaled tens of millions of Chinese Yuan (millions of U.S. dollars), highlighting the impact of air pollution not only on vulnerable people’s health but also on healthcare expenses. [GeoHealth study] 

Which regions of the U.S. guzzle the most water per household, and why
Two months of monitoring by smart water meters in over 33,000 households across 39 major American cities bore these insights: households in the southwest, south, and northern Midwest used the most water, while those in coastal regions, especially in California, used the least. Behaviors — especially toilet flushing and shower time — explained most of the differences in water use per capita, while the efficiency of appliances, especially clothes washers, made the most impact between households. Sustainable urban water management should target both areas for improvement, the researchers wrote. [Water Resources Research study] 

See also: 

  • Toilets and showers make up the vast majority of household water use [press release][Earth’s Future study] 
  • Faced with water restrictions, many Americans would willingly pay to reuse water [newsletter item][Water Resources Research study] 

Uncovering the best conditions for finding hydrogen fuel in mountains
Erosion may augment the amount of hydrogen naturally stored in mountain ranges like the Alps and the Pyrenees, which could help humans pinpoint where to drill for the gas as a clean energy alternative to fossil fuels. When rocks from deep in Earth’s mantle get lifted towards the surface as mountains form, they pass through a suitable temperature range in which they can react with water to produce hydrogen. Erosion of the mountains can help bring those rocks towards the surface, making that process more efficient, new computer simulations suggest. Too much erosion, however, can bring them towards the surface so quickly that they spend less time in the temperature range necessary for the hydrogen-producing reaction. Excessive erosion can also wear away the porous rock layers that might otherwise store the newly made hydrogen. [JGR Solid Earth study] 

The surprising link between a cold blob and the Indian monsoon
Climate processes that at first glance appear separate can actually be intimately linked, modeling shows. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

Rivers in the Antarctic sky, captured in 3D
A new study shows that atmospheric rivers may be responsible for up to 90% of Antarctica’s annual precipitation. [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Model of complex blanket bog improves prediction of peat expansion
Peat expansion is tightly coupled to the global climate cycle. As a nature-based solution to climate change, we need to know how peatlands will respond to different climate scenarios. [Eos editors’ highlight][Water Resources Research study] 

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5/28/2026: International laws curb shipping pollution

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A cargo ship in the ocean, loaded with containers, seen from a bird's-eye view in the evening

A cargo ship off the coast of Venezuela. In response to environmental concerns, international regulations over the past two decades have required ships to switch to cleaner fuels in certain coastal regions. Credit: Wilfredor, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

Save US forecasts: AGU Presidents to join weather & climate marathon livestream
From 4pm EDT next Monday, 1 June to 6pm EDT Wednesday, 3 June, more than 100 weather and climate scientists will speak continuously for 50 hours in protest of federal funding and staffing cuts. AGU President Brandon Jones and AGU President-Elect Benjamin Zaichik will participate on 3 June at 2:00 – 2:40 pm EDT. [YouTube livestream] [event contact: [email protected]] [AGU leadership contact: [email protected]] 

Session highlights from the JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2026 in Chiba, Japan (and online)
Members of the news media interested in covering the Joint Meeting of the Japan Geoscience Union and AGU in Chiba, Japan from 24-29 May 2026, either online or in person, should complete pre-registration on the meeting press page. The meeting is accessible in English. Reporters can send registration questions to [email protected]. [Meeting website] [Meeting press page] [Info for online participation] [Info on session languages] [full program] [media advisory] [highlight sessions] 

Featured Research 

International laws successfully curbed maritime shipping pollution
Regulations on ship fuels have cut atmospheric pollutants along the US East Coast by at least 80% for vanadium, at least 67% for particulate nickel, and at least 53% for particulate sulfate. High-sulfur ship fuels emit these pollutants when burned, prompting the International Maritime Organization to enact regulations in 2012 and 2015 requiring ships to switch to low-sulfur fuels in certain North American coastal areas. The results, based on a 15-year dataset from monitoring sites along the East Coast and measurements from NASA flights over the northwestern Atlantic from 2020 to 2022, highlight the effectiveness of regulations for controlling maritime pollution, the researchers write. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Sudden streamflow shifts present a rising hazard in the Mississippi River Basin
In a future of moderately high greenhouse gas emissions, major tributaries in the United States’ Mississippi River Basin should expect more frequent “hydrologic whiplash,” sudden shifts between high and low streamflow. Observations and climate models project that, by the end of this century, wet-to-dry whiplash may get 115% and 137% more common on the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, respectively, compared to the period from 1851 to 1880 during which each river might have seen only one or two such events, researchers estimate. Booms and busts in rainfall and snowmelt will likely drive most of the increase. Understanding these trends may help this economically vital region alleviate their impacts on water resources and infrastructure. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Seaweed could sink CO2 as efficiently as direct carbon capture
Farming, harvesting, and sinking massive amounts of seaweed could lock away planet-warming carbon dioxide as efficiently as technologies that directly capture the gas from the air, according to new model simulations. To grow, seaweed sucks up carbon from the waters near the ocean’s surface, prompting the ocean to absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere to make up for it, thereby mitigating climate change. Sinking seaweed at least 2,000 meters at a speed of 1,000 meters or more per day can, in some parts of the Pacific, lock away the carbon inside it for up to 500 years. This strategy gets less effective if the seaweed sinks too slowly or shallowly, or in places where water circulates too quickly between the depths and the surface. [Earth’s Future study] 

“Seed coating” tech could help restore degraded ecosystems
Seed coating technology, which wraps seeds in protective layers to help them germinate and grow, originated to improve crop yields — but a recent review of existing research indicates it could do the same for plants used to restore degraded ecosystems with salty, dry, or waterlogged soils. In these contexts, coatings can boost plant germination by over 23% and growth by over 43%. Coatings including micronutrients and oxygen-supply agents promote germination best, while those with beneficial microbes stimulate growth better, meaning it pays to match the right coating to the right species and environment. However, most coatings today are designed for grasses and legumes, highlighting the need to adapt the technology to suit restoration plants, the researchers write. [Earth’s Future study] 

Crust-shattering asteroids may have primed young Earth for life
Early in our planet’s history, asteroids pummeled Earth’s surface up to 100,000 times more often than today, fracturing its crust. Heat generated from those impacts, and rising from Earth’s interior, spurred fluids to circulate through those fractures, creating hydrothermal systems that could have lasted millions of years — a type of environment in which, scientists think, life may have originated or undergone early evolution. New computer simulations of differently sized asteroids hitting young Earth at various speeds suggest those impacts likely rendered vast regions of the upper eight kilometers (five miles) of Earth’s crust highly permeable for its first 1.5 billion years, promoting that kind of hydrothermal activity over long spans of time. [AGU Advances study] 

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5/21/2026: Where irrigation is — and isn’t — going solar

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Wheeled irrigation pipes shoot sprays of water over a grassy field with a valley and mountains in the background

Irrigation on agricultural land in Colorado, USA. The energy required to pump water for irrigation has environmental and economic costs, and many parts of the world are shifting to alternative irrigation power sources like solar. Credit: Tony Webster

AGU News 

Register for the JpGU-AGU 2026 Joint Meeting in Chiba, Japan (and online)
Members of the news media interested in covering the Joint Meeting of the Japan Geoscience Union and AGU in Chiba, Japan from 24-29 May 2026, either online or in person, should complete pre-registration at least two days in advance. Registration is free of charge for press covering the meeting and will grant access to all oral presentation sessions, poster sessions, and exhibition areas both online and in person. The meeting is accessible in English. Reporters can send registration questions to press@jpgu.org. [Meeting website] [Meeting press page] [Info for online participation] [Info on session languages] [full program] 

Featured Research 

Irrigation takes energy. Around the world, the sources of that power are changing.
Researchers have assembled the first global dataset (to the authors’ knowledge) revealing how much energy each country uses for irrigation, which power sources each relies on, and how those things are changing over time. Drawing on a combination of existing data and models, the effort indicates that many countries are shifting how they fuel their irrigation: solar-powered water pumps are on the rise in India and Pakistan, for instance, whereas China and the U.S. continue to rely mostly on the grid. Understanding these patterns can help inform food, energy, and water security goals as well as environmental efforts, the researchers wrote, since the energy cost of irrigation can affect both food prices and greenhouse gas emissions. [Earth’s Future study] 

Heat and drought may increasingly strike multiple global breadbaskets at once
Earth’s major agricultural regions will likely see simultaneous droughts and heatwaves occurring more often and for longer stretches through the end of this century, according to model projections. The Indo-Gangetic Plain may take the brunt, with drought-heatwaves eating up 32 more days per year under a mid-range emissions scenario than they did from 1982 to 2019. It won’t be alone, however: high-stress hot-dry extremes hitting over 30% of global breadbasket regions at once may also get more common, putting global food supply chains at risk as the planet’s population continues to grow. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

As the Northern Hemisphere gets less dusty, its clouds trap less heat
As the Northern Hemisphere has gotten less dusty in recent decades, its clouds have gotten better at reflecting sunlight back into space, creating a cooling effect. Clouds can comprise both water droplets and ice crystals, but the former reflects sunlight better than the latter. Dust particles act as “seeds” around which ice crystals can form, so with less dust in the air, clouds in the Northern Hemisphere more readily take on a watery — and more reflective — form. The resultant cooling offsets about a quarter of the warming that other cloud-based phenomena cause, the authors write, meaning that Earth may be warming more slowly than climate models ignoring this effect project. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

With less ice, more sunlight pierces the Arctic Ocean
As Arctic sea ice thins, shrinks in area, and melts earlier in the year due to human-induced warming, it reflects less sunlight, making the waters below brighter and warmer. Satellite and model data reveal that from 1984 to 2024, the Arctic Ocean took on about 300 megajoules of extra heat per square meter from sunlight alone — enough to melt a meter-thick layer of ice. Besides amplifying warming in a region already heating up faster than the rest of the globe, the energy from the extra sunlight could also alter marine food webs. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

In some wetland soils, warming could ramp up microbes’ neurotoxin production
In a laboratory experiments, more heat caused microbes in wetland soils to more actively convert the mercury in those soils into methylmercury, a harmful neurotoxin — but only up to a point. This activity peaked at around 20 degrees Celsius, or 68 degrees Fahrenheit, but slowed down once temperatures reached 25 Celsius (77 Fahrenheit) due to nutrients for the microbes becoming more limited. Overall, the team wrote, this indicates that although warming generally boosts methylmercury buildup, how far this effect goes depends on the content of the soil itself. [JGR Biogeosciences study] 

How much will Western wildfires worsen under warming?
A new study reevaluates the use of vapor pressure deficit, or VPD, in climate models to predict increases in area burned by wildfire across the U.S. West. [Eos research spotlight] [AGU Advances study] 

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5/7/2026: The Yangtze is stealing the headwaters of the Yellow River

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A boat emitting a trail of smoke on a wide, peaceful river between steep cliffs at dusk.

Dusk on the Yangtze River. As the topographic divide between the Yangtze and Yellow rivers’ basins has moved over time, billions of cubic meters of water that once flowed into the latter each year now drain into the former. Credit: Andrew Hitchcock, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program]  

Featured Research 

The Yangtze is stealing the headwaters of the Yellow River
China’s two longest rivers arise on the Tibetan Plateau, on opposite sides of a 3,000-kilometer-long divide that separates their drainage basins. Deep gorges and steep terrain shape the Yangtze headwaters while the Yellow flows through the gentle Zoige Basin. A new study argues the Yangtze is actively pirating the Yellow’s headwaters, pushing the divide northwestward. The climate swings of the Quaternary, the current ice age, amped up erosion in this region in favor of the steeper Yangtze basin. Over the last few million years, the Yangtze has stolen 30,000 square kilometers that once drained into the Yellow, reducing the annual runoff in upper Yellow River by 5 billion cubic meters. It’s about the same volume (4 billion cubic meters) that China plans to transfer back to the Yellow River through the western route of the massive South-to-North Water Diversion Project. [JGR Solid Earth study]

This asteroid literally dug up evidence of past water on Mars
Roughly fifteen years ago, an asteroid left a 25-meter-wide crater in Mars’s dusty Arabia Terra region, driving itself into the plains within a much larger, older crater. The impact acted as “nature’s drill,” write the authors of a new study, offering a rare glimpse beneath the Martian surface. Observations of the crater from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have revealed that magnesium saponite — a clay mineral that only forms with water around — exists just a few meters down, presenting another piece of evidence for past water on Mars. [JGR Planets study]

Coral heat stress in 2024 over three times more anomalous than in most warm years 
Compared to the historical average from 1981 to 2010, marine heatwaves around the globe in 2024 spanned more days and were more intense by more than three standard deviations — in other words, exceeding the historical average over three times more than most other above-average years for marine heatwaves. The extreme conditions of that year, when the average global sea surface temperature reached a record 0.61 degrees Celsius above the historical average, contributed to the fourth worldwide coral bleaching event on record. Reefs in the Red Sea, the Coral Triangle, Fiji, the Caribbean, and Brazil suffered especially severe heat stress, researchers report. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

ER visits from asthma spike during nighttime heatwaves in Baltimore
When heatwaves in Baltimore last through the night, emergency rooms receive more patients with heightened asthma symptoms. A new study drawing on hundreds of adult and pediatric cases from 2016 to 2022 and air temperature measurements at the neighborhood level found that socially vulnerable neighborhoods and those with the greatest nighttime temperature changes were most likely to see ER visits shoot up. Baltimore’s Code Red Extreme Heat alert system, which relies on daytime temperature forecasts, doesn’t capture this correlation between heat and asthma, potentially underestimating residents’ heat exposure. Including measurements taken at night, when the city’s heat island effect strengthens, could improve early warning systems, the researchers wrote. [Johns Hopkins University press release][GeoHealth study]

In extreme weather, Appalachian forests’ slow and steady response wins the race
Appalachian forests’ adaptations to droughts and floods only appear months or years after the fact. The delayed response may provide critical resilience for the forests’ ecosystems, reducing how much water vegetation drinks up during dry periods and promoting water recharge when precipitation increases. [Water Resources Research study]

How wildfires worsen flood risk
A new approach to analyzing watersheds shows how storms occurring after a wildfire can have higher flooding risk than similar storms that occurred before a fire. [Eos research spotlight][Water Resources Research study] 

Want to predict wildfire severity? Look to the state of vegetation
A new study connects satellite data on vegetation condition, topography, and weather conditions to examine the predicted versus actual burn severity of the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

Where was Baltica 616 million years ago?
Disentangling magnetic signals in its ancient rocks gives an updated view of the paleocontinent’s position during the Ediacaran period. [Eos research spotlight][Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems study] 

Toward marine cloud brightening at scale: A science agenda
Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) is a Solar Radiation Management (SRM) solution to cool the planet by changing the albedo of low-altitude marine clouds to increase reflected shortwave radiation. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study][AGU Ethical Framework Principles for Climate Intervention Research] 

Let’s not forget about long droughts
Why do conceptual hydrologic models struggle to model long-term droughts? A new study investigates. [Eos editors’ highlight][Water Resources Research study]

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4/30/2026: Mangroves clean up nitrogen pollution to the tune of $8.7 billion every year

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A mangrove forest in a coastal estuary at sunset, with branching, tangling roots half-submerged in still water

A mangrove forest along the Mida Creek near the coast of Kenya. Each year, mangroves remove hundreds of thousands of metric tons of excess nitrogen from coastal ecosystems around the world, mitigating the impacts of nitrogen pollution from human activities. Credit: Timothy K, Unsplash

AGU News

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program]

Featured Research

Mangroves clean up nitrogen pollution to the tune of $8.7 billion every year
Earth’s mangroves remove 870,000 metric tons of nitrogen from coastal ecosystems every year, a new analysis reports, with the potential to capture 5 million metric tons annually under ideal conditions. Because nitrogen pollution from human activities can trigger harmful algal blooms and oxygen depletion that threaten public health and coastal economies, the cleanup saves roughly $8.7 billion annually, more than 12 times the value of mangroves’ carbon sequestration. The paper’s authors argue for a “blue nitrogen” market to financially recognize this service and incentivize mangrove conservation, nitrogen pollution reduction, and coastal water quality management. [Earth’s Future study]

Ongoing greening masks the impact of deforestation in Southeast Asia
Despite losing up to almost 7% of its forested area, Southeast Asia became about 5.5% greener and 12.5% more ecologically productive from 2001 to 2022, according to an analysis of satellite data. The gains likely stem mostly from intensified agricultural practices and rising carbon dioxide concentrations, the latter of which is spurring plant growth in many parts of the world. However, this masks the damage deforestation has caused: had the forests remained intact, researchers estimated, Southeast Asia would be about 16% greener and 6% more productive than it is today. The finding exemplifies how “greener” doesn’t always mean “healthier” in ecological terms, the team wrote. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Excess dry plants, more than wind or topography, made L.A.’s 2025 fires so severe 
The conditions of burnable fuels before the devastating January 2025 wildfires in California’s Los Angeles County determined those fires’ burn severity more than winds or topography, according to a modeling study examining three of those fires. The study’s findings and methods may help land managers assess fire hazards based on changing fuel conditions, informing fuels treatments (such as prescribed burns) to reduce the severity of future fires. As both wildfire risk and the wildland-urban boundaries most vulnerable to disastrous fires grow, understanding what drives severe fires becomes increasingly important for proactive fire management, the authors write. [AGU Advances study]

Global warming could prompt Earth’s peatlands to heat the planet even further
If global warming remains relatively low, Earth’s peatlands above the 25th parallel north will continue to sequester carbon while releasing methane, a balance that has historically had a net cooling effect on the climate. Under a high-warming scenario, however, these peatlands could start emitting more methane and carbon dioxide, while also sequestering less of the latter, by mid-century, substantially amplifying global warming by the late 23rd century. Warming in peatlands is altering both primary productivity, which ultimately sequesters carbon, and decomposition, which releases methane, shifting the balance of planet-warming gases these ecosystems emit and absorb. [JGR Biogeosciences study]

Hydrologists call for a unified, AI-ready repository for U.S. water data
A November 2025 executive order commanded the DOE to develop an AI platform trained on U.S. federal scientific data called the “Genesis Mission.” The DOE has listed water availability for energy as a key challenge for the project. Hydrologists Amobichukwu Amanambu and Jonathan Frame argue in an op-ed that the focus should broaden to consider critical water issues holistically, including demands from agriculture, data centers and other stakeholders beyond the energy sector, as well as predictive management of surface water, groundwater and flooding. [Eos opinion]

How space plasma can bend the laser of gravitational wave detectors
A new study reveals how and to what extent laser beams are bent during propagation through space plasma in TianQin, a geocentric space-borne gravitational wave detector. [Eos editors’ highlight][Space Weather study]

More braided rivers from increasing flow variability
Global analysis of satellite data and river flow records show that higher flow intermittency after climate change may lead to an increasing number of threads in braided rivers, thus impacting ecosystems. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study]

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4/23/2026: Future wildfires may burn less of the American West than expected

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Four firefighters in full gear stand in a shrubby area in front of a conifer forest on fire during the daytime.

Firefighters stand before a wildfire in Wyoming, USA. As climate change dries out the American West, priming it for more wildfire, projections of future burned area vary depending on whether scientists base their estimates more on atmospheric dryness or soil dryness. Credit: United States Forest Service, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program] 

Research roundup: When cities make it rain 

By altering the shape, temperature, and atmospheric stability of the landscapes on which they sit, urban areas have the power to change regional rainfall. Check out the latest research on this topic from AGU journals: 

  • Urbanization in Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City metro area as of 2020 has brought 30% more daily rainfall to the urban center than the landscape would have had without any urbanization. [JGR Atmospheres study] 
  • Global satellite data show that most large cities receive a greater amount of light rain, but less intense heavy rain, than nearby rural areas. [Earth’s Future study] 
  • Heat from Houston, Texas draws moisture from nearby countryside to form taller clouds and trigger stronger, wetter, longer storms over the city than in rural areas. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Featured Research 

Western U.S. wildfire projections may be greatly overestimated, study argues
Previous studies may have overestimated future wildfire-burned area in the Western United States by up to an order of magnitude, a new study claims. Most studies use atmospheric dryness to estimate how big fires will get, since the two have historically correlated well. Soil moisture has also mirrored burned area quite well in the past, but scientists expect it to change far less than atmospheric dryness under climate change, meaning projections from the two will diverge. At 3 degrees Celsius of warming, for instance, projections based on atmospheric dryness estimate the area burned during each 6-month fire season will grow 16 times larger than in the period from 1984 to 2014, while those based on soil moisture show burned area doubling. Recent advances in hydrology, the authors write, indicate the latter will provide the better proxy going forward. [AGU Advances study] 

Past jump in farm burning on the Tibetan Plateau likely sped up glacier melting
Biomass burning shot up fourfold on the western Tibetan Plateau after the 1970s, mostly from the expansion of farming and crop residue burning in the northwestern Indian Peninsula. The finding comes from the first high-resolution history of biomass burning in the region, based on an analysis of charcoal particles in an ice core covering the period from 1935 to 2012. Agricultural burning releases black carbon, which can settle on Tibetan glaciers in a dark layer that absorbs sunlight, likely making those glaciers melt faster. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Carbonate weathering projected to sequester up to 25% more carbon by 2100
Carbonate weathering, a natural process in which worn-down rocks react with water and carbon dioxide to lock away atmospheric CO2 and help regulate the global climate, sequestered 127 million tons of carbon per year from 1950 to 2014 — about 3.7% of what the world’s forests sequester. Compared to that period, scientists project, this global carbon sink will increase roughly 14% to 25% by 2100. That’s partly because at altitudes above 3,000 meters, snow and glaciers melting from climate warming provide more water and plant growth, both of which aid in weathering. Below that elevation, however, warming hinders the weathering process instead. [Earth’s Future study] 

Metals and rippled rocks on Mars hint at an ancient lake friendly to life
In the Gale Crater on Mars in late 2022, NASA’s Curiosity rover encountered the largest deposit of iron, zinc, and manganese ever found together in the crater. The metals lay within preserved ripples in the rock, a shape indicating that a broad, shallow lake once filled that area — even though the rocks were deposited during a time when Mars’ climate was turning drier and colder. In Earth’s lakes, metal-rich deposits like this form via chemical reactions almost always in the presence of microbial life, suggesting that this lake may have provided favorable conditions for Martian life. [Los Alamos National Laboratory press release][JGR Planets study] 

Europe’s baby steps away from rising seas
In 1859, the Dutch king forced evacuation from Schokland, an island community struggling with damaging floods caused by subsidence. Stone embankments could not hold back storm surge from the sea and the defenses became too expensive to maintain. Since then, retreat has remained less popular than engineered defenses in the battle against rising sea levels in Europe, according to a new study that reviewed 44 proposed or complete managed retreat projects in 11 European countries (map), relocating 8,700 households. Most projects are small, disconnected from broader climate adaptation planning and reactive to devastating flooding rather than proactive. Because modern governments prefer persuasion over force, they will need adequate and transparent compensation, early community buy-in and trusted local leaders to make this adaptation strategy effective. [Earth’s Future study]  

Mediterranean mussel farming could collapse by 2050
New experiments suggest that ocean warming and acidification are on track to slash both oyster and mussel farming yields. [Eos research spotlight][Earth’s Future study] 

Navigating the past with ancient stone compass needles
The emerging field of magnetic microscopy allows scientists to reconstruct ancient magnetic fields from individual magnetic particles. A new study evaluates the accuracy of the technique. [Eos research spotlight][JGR Solid Earth study] 

Amazon River breezes mimic pollution in clouds
Natural river breezes create clouds over the Amazon that mimic the signs of pollution, complicating climate impact assessments. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

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4/16/2026: Environmental recovery in Mongolia improves air quality across East Asia

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A massive dust storm engulfing a swath of eastern Asia, as seen from space, with the curve of the planet visible against the backdrop of space in the background

A massive dust storm over the Gobi Desert, which spans southern Mongolia and northern China. Dust kicked up in Mongolia accounts for a significant portion of dust pollution in northern and northeastern China, but declining desertification in Mongolia has improved air quality beyond its borders over the past 20 years. Credit: NASA, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

AGU 2026 Journalism Awards call for nominations
AGU is now accepting nominations for its 2026 Journalism Awards, which honor outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences published in 2025. Nominate your or your peers’ best work by Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [press release and submission links] 

AbSciCon26 registration open
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration for the Astrobiology Science Conference to meet in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [press information] [AbSciCon home] [program] 

Featured Research 

Environmental recovery in Mongolia improves air quality across East Asia
Natural environmental recovery in Mongolia from 2005 to 2023, marked by a drop in desertification across most of the country, reduced national dust emissions by roughly 23%. Because desertification-fueled dust storms in Mongolia impact air quality and health for hundreds of millions of people across East Asia, the improvement had an international ripple effect, cutting dust pollution in North and Northeast China by 5.4% and 13.3%, respectively. Intentional land restoration could have even greater region-wide benefits: researchers estimate that restoration actions in Mongolia, akin to those in China’s Inner Mongolia, could have lowered dust pollution in Northeast China by over 18% during the same period. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Reaching carbon neutrality earlier cuts humid heatwave health risks significantly
Cutting net human carbon emissions to zero by mid-century could reduce the global health risk from humid heat stress by 45%, compared to a scenario in which emissions peak around mid-century but don’t reach net zero by 2100. It would also lower the disparity in risk between low- and high-income countries by over 78%. The earlier humanity achieves carbon neutrality, the more risk it averts: getting there by the 2050s rather than the 2070s, for instance, reduces risk in low-income countries by over 35%. Humid heatwaves present greater danger than either heat or humidity separately, especially for outdoor laborers with limited access to medical services. [Earth’s Future study] 

Water from rocket exhaust might stick around on the moon longer than thought
Water from rocket exhaust may bind to grains of lunar soil, causing it to take longer to escape back into space than scientists previously thought, according to a new study based on data from the Chang’e-5 and Chang’e-6 lander missions. Scientists need to know how water moves on the moon in order to develop adequate planetary protection measures. Depending on how they move, water and other substances from spacecraft could contaminate future research sites at the moon’s poles, where ice may preserve clues about the history of the solar system. [JGR Planets study] 

Uranus’ faint, thin outer rings born of ice and mystery
Unlike Saturn’s spectacular rings, Uranus’ are dark and difficult to observe — particularly the outermost pair, discovered in 2005. New observations from James Webb Space Telescope combined with older data from Hubble Space Telescope and Keck Observatory in Hawaii find tiny icy grains make up the blue μ ring created by micrometeorite impacts on the planet’s small moon, Mab. The icy composition of the μ ring confirms that Mab is mostly made of water-ice. The authors infer that the dusty, red v ring, meanwhile, must have resulted from collisions between thus-far-invisible, organics-rich rocky bodies orbiting between some of Uranus’ 14 known moons. [JGR Planets study] [Keck Observatory press release] 

South Carolina communities take disaster risk reduction into their own hands
A pilot program to improve disaster resilience in South Carolinian communities facing disproportionate exposure to environmental hazards — the first of its kind in the U.S. — met with success, according to a report by researchers at institutions involved in it. The EJ Strong Program provided training sessions in disaster risk reduction to over 110 people from those communities between 2020 and 2024, 46 of whom received certificates at the end. The program also produced an online course, an app, an emergency food access map, and public school materials all focused on disaster risk reduction, plus air quality and flood monitoring systems and funding for disaster resilience projects in vulnerable communities. As heatwaves, floods, sea level rise, and public health crises hit disadvantaged communities the hardest, community-led disaster management can give them more agency over how to manage the risks they face. [GeoHealth study] 

Conservation practices on farms can lower flood risk and boost water quality
Nature-based solutions for agricultural conservation, such as winter cover cropping, have boomed over the past 30 years in Shell Creek, Nebraska as local stakeholders and government agencies have worked together to improve watershed management. In a recent study, researchers reported that this trend likely contributed to healthier winter vegetation, less frequent and intense flooding and, to a lesser extent, better water quality. The example of Shell Creek indicates that conservation practices can help make agricultural water systems more sustainable, they wrote. [Water Resources Research study] 

Fixing Baltimore’s unequal weather data coverage
A new partnership between researchers and community members created a comprehensive network of weather stations across underserved areas of the city. [Eos research spotlight][Community Science study] 

Glaciers may flow into the ocean more quickly than we think
New research found that adjusting a key model variable may give more accurate predictions of glacial retreat. [Eos research highlight][AGU Advances study] 

An ancient landscape beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
Geophysical observations of the subglacial topography of Coats Land reveal a landscape formed by tectonics and fluvial erosion that influenced the formation of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. [Eos editors’ highlight][JGR Earth Surface study] 

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4/2/2026: As Earth’s climate warms, when it rains, it pours

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Two people on a moped in a flooded city street during a downpour at night

As climate change continues, more regions are receiving a greater share of their total rainfall through extreme rain events. Among other impacts, this can stress food and economic security in areas that rely on rainfed agriculture. Credit: qimono, Pixabay

AGU News 

AGU 2026 Journalism Awards call for nominations 

AGU is now accepting nominations for its 2026 Journalism Awards, which honor outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences published in 2025. Nominate your or your peers’ best work by Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [press release and submission links] 

Attend the 2026 Astrobiology Science Conference in Madison, Wisconsin, 17-22 May
Reporters and press officers interested in press registration should email AGU Media Relations at [email protected]. Please include a link to a byline, masthead or a staff page listing your name and position. Freelancers should provide a link to a portfolio or links to at least three bylined science news stories published in the last 12 months. [AbSciCon home] [program] 

Lunar research roundup 

With Artemis II’s crew set to begin their outbound lunar transit tonight, check out the latest research on Earth’s Moon from AGU journals: 

  • Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis cracks open “new” 50-year-old lunar samples from NASA’s collection [JGR Planets special collection][introduction] 
  • Looking for a sunny spot near cold pits of darkness: where to land on the south pole of the Moon [JGR Planets study] 
  • How to bring a snowball souvenir back from space: the challenge of icy sample return begins with Artemis [Geophysical Research Letters study]  
  • Day-night temperatures for scientific sightseeing locations on the Moon [Earth and Space Science study] 
  • Astronauts could listen for moonquakes with fiber optic cables [Earth and Space Science study] 
  • Lunar spacecraft exhaust could obscure clues to origins of life [press release][JGR Planets study] 

Featured Research 

As the climate warms, more of Earth’s rainfall arrives via extreme rain events 
Should Earth warm by four degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels, much its land area could see a 15% to 20% increase in the fraction of its rain that comes from extreme rain events. The African Sahel, the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and northern Australia would rank among the most affected regions, according to new climate model projections. More than half of global croplands could suffer as a result, and low-income countries reliant on rainfed agriculture would be especially hard-pressed to maintain food security and economic stability. The finding highlights the need to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, the researchers wrote, especially as many regions are already seeing extreme rain dominate their total annual rainfall even faster than models predict. [Water Resources Research study]  

Meteorites from Earth or Mars could theoretically seed life on the clouds of Venus 
Chunks of rock knocked loose from Earth or Mars (if life existed there) could, in theory, fly through space and deliver life to the clouds of Venus, according to recent model simulations. Small amounts of the rock could survive entering Venus’ atmosphere while still carrying living cells, scattering in fragments tiny enough to float in the clouds. Researchers estimate this process could theoretically send about 100 cells to Venus’s clouds every Earth-year. What happens after that remains unclear: although too little water exists in the Venusian sky to support Earthly life, the pressures and temperatures there resemble those on Earth’s surface, making it a place of interest to scientists studying the possibility of extraterrestrial life. [JGR Planets study]  

Global wheat yields take a hit from rising extreme heat-drought combos 
Simultaneous extreme heat and drought, on the rise due to human-driven climate change, is hurting global wheat yields. For over 70% of the world’s wheat-growing area, when these hot-dry combos persist for more than 10% of the growing season, yields drop by over 6%, on average. Canada, Australia, and Central Asia suffer the most severe impacts, while heavily irrigated regions like China and India are less affected. The findings come from a recent study including analysis of meteorological and soil data from 1981 to 2020. Heat and drought can hinder wheat production more in tandem than when they occur separately, the researchers wrote. [Earth’s Future study]  

Air pollution disproportionately affects Cape Town’s vulnerable communities 
Over 40% of the population of Cape Town, South Africa, lives in areas at high or very high risk for air pollution, mostly in informal settlements and historically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Researchers arrived at the result after comparing social vulnerability data with satellite data on air quality, an approach that allowed them to consider areas lacking traditional air quality monitors. The finding highlights the need to consider social factors and prioritize high-risk areas when addressing air pollution, the team wrote: improving housing and healthcare access in socially vulnerable communities, for instance, could mitigate adverse impacts. [GeoHealth study]  

Asia’s heat-flood combo of 2022 unlikely without human-driven climate change 
An extreme weather combination that hit Asia in the summer of 2022, consisting of simultaneous floods in Pakistan and heatwaves in the Yangtze River Basin, likely wouldn’t have happened without the influence of human-driven climate change. Researchers compared the atmospheric conditions of 2022 against those during a similar combined weather event in 2010 that inflicted significant socioeconomic impacts in the same regions. They found that the 2022 event was essentially a version of its 2010 counterpart, but amplified by warming. In a future scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, they estimated, events like that of 2022 could become 57 to 326 times more probable by the last 30 years of this century. [Water Resources Research study]  

What’s under the water matters
The fate of barrier islands in presence of sea level rise depends on their underwater shape. [Eos editors’ highlight][JGR Earth Surface study] 

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3/26/2026: Super-wet winters may recharge western U.S. mountains’ groundwater

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A massive, snowy mountain at sunset, wreathed in clouds and towering over smaller, tree-covered mountains below

Mount Rainier in Washington state. The Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges in the western U.S. are losing groundwater, but new research suggests short, extreme bursts of winter precipitation may help them recover groundwater lost during long dry spells. Credit: U.S. National Park Service, Wikimedia Commons

AGU News 

Earth’s Future expands scope
AGU’s popular journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants is adding three new thematic areas: climate impacts, communities and resilience, and sustainable resource systems. Learn more about the research directions these topics encompass from the new deputy editors. [Eos editors’ vox][Earth’s Future editorial] 

Featured Research 

Super-wet winters can recharge western U.S. mountains’ groundwater
In the mountains of the western U.S., extremely wet winters can replenish groundwater enough to make up for multiple years of loss. This helps these systems quickly bounce back to above-normal levels after historical lows, according to a new study using satellite measurements of groundwater in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges. The mountains release groundwater at a steady rate, the researchers wrote, meaning they can store the extra water from a super rainy season for at least a year rather than letting it flush through them rapidly. For communities and ecosystems around these mountains, groundwater is critical: as severe multi-year droughts have recurred, sharp groundwater declines have accounted for over 90% of the regions’ total water loss over the past 20 years. Scientists predict extremely wet winters to get more frequent and intense, which may help offset those losses as the regional climate gets drier. [Water Resources Research study] 

Human emissions amplified Asia’s extreme 2024 heat-flood combo
In the spring of 2024, northwestern central Asia took a double-whammy of extreme weather: severe flooding from record-breaking rainfall displaced over 100,000 people, while a subsequent heatwave cranked the average 7-day maximum temperature to nearly six degrees Celsius above normal. Although natural forces like La Niña and sea surface temperature patterns played a significant role, researchers reported, warming from greenhouse gases amplified the effect, making the extreme combo eight times more probable. A scenario of moderate continued greenhouse gas emissions could raise the risk of a similar event by more than 22 times by the end of the century, according to observational data and climate model simulations. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Earth’s oldest trees offer a history of cold snaps at sub-seasonal resolution
Using tree ring cores from 83 bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva), the longest-lived tree species on the planet, in the White Mountains of California, researchers have built a 1,100-year climate record spanning 900 to 2014 C.E. The record is the longest yet created based on “blue rings,” microscopic bands within tree rings where sudden, unseasonable cold prevented cells from fully lignifying, or becoming rigid and woody. These subtle features document abrupt cooling events too brief for traditional tree-ring studies to detect, including cold snaps induced by volcanic eruptions blocking sunlight. The detailed history may help scientists studying short-term cold extremes today, especially as climate change is projected to induce more late-spring frosts in some parts of the world, stressing crops and forests. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Full force of polar warming may be masked in short term, surging centuries later
The pace of human-driven warming at Earth’s poles may vary in the short term before flaring up centuries down the road, according to climate simulations comparing different rates of CO2 increase leading to the same final atmospheric concentration. The poles are already warming more than the global average, a phenomenon called polar amplification. This effect may dominate the Arctic early on, but if CO2 concentrations consistently climb faster than 0.5% per year, changes in global ocean circulation and heat transport could cause Arctic amplification to fade — only to return after several centuries. Regardless of the rate of CO2 increase, the models showed amplified warming in the Antarctic emerging more gradually, then surging more than 1,000 years after CO2 concentrations stabilize as heat stored deep in the ocean rises to the surface. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Mining and industry pollute a vital Colombian river with heavy metals
Concentrations of mercury, cadmium, and nickel in the Sinú River often rise significantly above baseline levels scientists frequently use to evaluate trace element pollution in soils. Soil samples collected at various depths during the rainy and dry seasons of 2021 along a stretch of the Sinú — a critical river supplying water for irrigation and everyday use to communities in northern Colombia — revealed concentrations exceeding those baselines by up to five times, although lead, zinc, and chromium levels stayed below the threshold. The pollution likely stems from mining, agricultural and industrial activities in the area that discharge the hazardous metals into the environment, the researchers wrote, highlighting the need for better environmental monitoring and management. [GeoHealth study] 

Stealth superstorms reveal lightning on Jupiter: beyond the superbolt 
On the gas giant, the strength and frequency of lightning appear to be more diverse than previously thought. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

The multi-faceted water footprint of data centers
Data centers powering artificial intelligence consume significant amounts of water, highlighting the need for greater transparency regarding water use in both existing and planned facilities.  [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

Trees shed their leaves to adapt to droughts
The browning or loss of tree leaves that can be observed during droughts may be a coping mechanism to deal with dry circumstances by avoiding additional water stress. [Eos editors’ highlight][AGU Advances study] 

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