8/27/2026: Here’s how much major emitters have raised the risk of extreme weather

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The dark silhouette of an oil derrick in the foreground and a setting sun in the background

An oil derrick pumping crude oil out of the ground. A new study calculates how much the world’s biggest fossil fuel emitters, including countries like the U.S. and companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil, are contributing to increased extreme weather event risk. Credit: Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

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Research Roundup: How urban environments are shaping extreme rainfall 

  • Tropical cities need to prepare for future intense rainfall as the climate warms [Earth’s Future study] 
  • How cleaner air is worsening Europe’s most extreme rainstorms [Geophysical Research Letters study] 
  • Growing coastal cities make tropical cyclones wetter downwind [JGR Atmospheres study]   

Here’s how much major emitters have raised the risk of extreme weather
Carbon dioxide emissions from the ten highest-emitting private fossil fuel producers, led by Chevron and ExxonMobil, made the 2021 heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest 31% more likely and the extreme rains of 2022 in Pakistan 7% more likely. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s total carbon emissions up to 2020 have raised the odds of the most extreme heat events recorded since then by 50% for a third of the world. A new study proportionally links cumulative carbon emissions to increased chances of intense rain or heat, allowing scientists to infer major emitters’ contributions to the heightened risk of extreme weather events based on their known carbon emissions. The method may offer a way to gauge major emitters’ liabilities for the impacts of extreme weather, improving climate accountability. [Earth’s Future study]

Marine acidic heatwaves now up to four times more likely than by chance
Simultaneous marine heatwaves and extreme acidification events now strike four times more often in the low-to-mid-latitudes than scientists would expect by chance alone, according to a study of ocean observations from 1982 to 2024. Most of these combos span less than a few hundred thousand square miles for under a month, but notable exceptions exist: the “blob” that occupied over 4.8 million square miles of the northeastern Pacific in 2015 and the acidic heatwave that persisted in the Atlantic for almost a full year in 2023 and 2024. Scientists expect these double extremes, which stress marine life more than high heat or acidity alone, to grow more severe as baseline ocean conditions overall become warmer and more acidic. [Eos research spotlight] [AGU Advances study]

Plants are hiding their water stress by getting leafier
Drought frequency from 1981 to 2018 has been underestimated across two-thirds of the globe, according to a new study of plant water usage. During drought, plants can’t draw enough moisture from the soil to meet their needs, so they emit less water from their leaves through evapotranspiration than usual. By using satellite measurements of leafiness and plant water loss to account for this process, researchers found that plants struggled with water shortfalls 14% more of the time in 2018 than in 1981. This newly revealed water stress complicates the apparent growth spurt of plants in recent decades, attributed to CO2 emissions. More CO2 in the atmosphere encourages plants to increase their leaf area, making the Earth look greener in satellite images despite widespread underlying drought. [AGU Advances study]

Miniature Martian ruby and sapphire relatives likely forged by meteor impacts
The Perseverance Rover has stumbled upon tiny grains of corundum — a mineral that forms rubies and sapphires depending on its chemistry and color — within unassuming rock fragments strewn across the floor of Jezero Crater on Mars. Given corundum’s rarity on Earth, finding it on Mars came as a major surprise. Scientists think the crystals likely formed in the intense pressure and temperature conditions of a large impact, potentially the event that formed the 28-mile-wide (45-kilometer-wide) Jezero Crater itself. Sadly, the mineral won’t be much good for Martian jewelry as Perseverance’s measurements suggest each piece is likely only a tenth of the size of a flea. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

This rock-covered Utah glacier has enough ice to fill the Great Pyramid of Giza
To a casual observer, the rock glacier on Mount Timpanogos in the U.S. state of Utah looks like a blanket of rocks over snow. In fact, the structure is only 17% rock: underfoot, a billion metric tons of ice extend up to 150 feet down, occupying 1.5 million cubic meters or roughly the volume of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Researchers measured the glacier’s insides using tiny differences in the gravitational pull of rock versus ice at 232 spots on the glacier. Based on this result and previous studies of other rock glaciers, they extrapolated that the world’s rock glaciers harbor a total ice volume of roughly 48 gigatons, enough to fill 400,000 Olympic swimming pools. Understanding these glaciers’ internal makeup can help researchers estimate their impacts to mountain ecology and hazards to downhill communities as they evolve in a warming world. [JGR Earth Surface study] [University of Utah press release]

  • See also: How shrinking ice glaciers become rock glaciers — and regain some ice in the process [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Solar panels can cool crops — and workers
A new model simulates the benefits of agrivoltaic farming, in which solar panels and crops share the same land. [Eos research spotlight] [JAMES study]

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8/13/2026: Keeping food scraps out of landfills could reduce US methane emissions by 6%

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A pile of food scraps not yet decomposed, perceived from above

Most food waste in the U.S. goes to landfills, where its decomposition contributes nearly 10% of the nation’s emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide. Credit: Niwrat on Wikimedia Commons

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Keeping  food scraps out of landfills could reduce US methane emissions by 6% 
Food and yard waste sent to rot in landfills contributes almost 10% of the U.S.’s annual methane emissions. A new study finds that reducing that waste by 75% through interventions like donating edible food, processing waste in specialized digestion facilities, and composting could cut total methane emissions by 6% — equivalent to 30 megatons of carbon dioxide per year, or 5% of total U.S. agricultural carbon emissions in 2022. Currently, only 13.5% of food waste stays out of landfills. Researchers note that increasing this percentage by a factor of five will require major nationwide investment in composting facilities, curbside compost collection and public awareness of how to reduce and dispose of food waste. [Earth’s Future study]  

Warming climate will intensify sudden rainstorms in tropical cities 
A new study projects that intense rainfall events lasting less than an hour in tropical cities will hit two to three times more often and deliver up to 17% more water by 2100 under 4.5 degrees Celsius of warming. This cloudburst-style rainfall can trigger flash floods and other hazards, especially in cities where paved surfaces and buildings prevent water from infiltrating into the ground. Researchers recommend that tropical cities build pipes and flood infrastructure to withstand more extreme conditions, particularly across Asia and Africa, where 90% of population growth by the end of the century is expected to occur. [Earth’s Future study] 

The abyssal ocean is warming 3.7 times faster than 40 years ago 
In the abyssal zone below 13,100 feet (4,000 meters), the ocean’s heat absorption increased from 5.4 terrawatts in 1988 to 20.2 terrawatts — about 1,600 times the heat used to keep all U.S. homes warm each year — in 2018. The finding comes from a new study using the largest-ever set of ocean temperature measurements by depth. To date, Earth’s oceans have absorbed 90% of the excess heat from human-caused climate change. Understanding how that heat is distributed throughout the oceans’ 352 quintillion gallons of water helps scientists monitor changes in ocean circulation and sea level rise resulting from climate warming.  [Geophysical Research Letters study]  

  • See also: The layer of cold, deep water around Antarctica is shrinking [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Extreme flooding on land helps coastal waters sequester carbon
During extreme flood years, 30% to 40% more organic carbon got buried in sediments in the coastal East China Sea than during normal years, according to a new study of a three-century sediment record from the Sea’s inner shelf. Floods wash nutrients and carbon from the land down the Yangtze River to the sea, feeding blooms of phytoplankton, which take up carbon dioxide into their bodies as they photosynthesize. On geologic timescales, this helps lock away carbon dioxide as phytoplankton bodies and droppings sink to the seafloor. Scientists expect extreme flooding events to intensify under climate change, meaning coastal seas may play a stronger role in global carbon sequestration. [Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology study]

Alaskan fjords fossilize 3,000 years of storms
Alaska’s Aleutian Islands are famed for their savage storms — but the most intense ones likely occur less often today than in the past. A new study dug up 60 feet of sediment from the bottom of the Skan Bay fjord to look back on three millennia of fossilized storms preserved by tiny variations in the sizes of mud and silt particles. The 56 storms recorded in the rock suggest that intense storms were seven times more frequent during the 750 – 1250 A.D. Medieval Climate Anomaly — a window of warmer, drier climate in Europe and North America — and have been on the decline in the thousand years since. Scientists use “paleotempestual” records like this to understand how larger climate trends impact storm frequencies, helping to make climate change projections more accurate. [Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology study]

Many Americans underestimate health risks of extreme weather, new study finds
The research examines the “risk perception gap,” or the difference between climate-related mortality estimates and public perceptions of climate risk, across U.S. counties. [Eos research spotlight] [GeoHealth study]

Super-Earths may be solid deep inside their mantles
New estimates show that a mineral likely common in these rocky planets’ interiors is resistant to melting, even at high temperatures. [Eos research spotlight] [AGU Advances study] 

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7/30/2026: Ship-stranding Arctic ice was forecastable — and will strike again

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A research vessel at sea, surrounded by sea ice

A NOAA research vessel trapped in sea ice near Alaska. Increasingly mobile sea ice is a growing hazard for the shipping industry as climate change enables boats to use the Chukchi Sea as a new, faster route between Europe, Asia, and North America. Credit: Crew and Officers of NOAA Ship MILLER FREEMAN

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Ship-stranding Arctic ice was forecastable — and will strike again
With 80 more ice-free days per year today than in 1979, the Arctic’s Chukchi Sea is attracting attention as a potential faster route for intercontinental shipping. Climate change has made the sea ice there thinner, allowing boats to pass more easily, but also more mobile as a result, raising the risk of sinking and stranding — as the crew of the Norseman II discovered when three- to five-foot-thick ice trapped them for two weeks in 2024. A new study found that the sudden influx of windblown ice that stranded the Norseman II could have been predicted using satellite imagery, weather data, and simulations of ice and ocean movement. With more vessels set to navigate this changing sea in the coming years, the study’s authors recommend that researchers collaborate with ship operators to communicate ice hazard forecasts. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Lightning strikes scramble rocks’ magnetic signatures
Electrocuting volcanic rocks with a lightning-like current can make them up to 490 times more magnetic, according to a new study. When volcanic rocks form, some iron-rich minerals interact with Earth’s magnetic field as they crystallize from lava or magma, locking in a magnetic fingerprint. Lightning can deliver a current of 80,000 amps — 6,400 times what’s needed to run a high-power blender. This generates a combined magnetic field and heat pulse, short-lived but strong enough to scramble rocks’ magnetic signatures and even create entirely new, microscopic, magnetic minerals. Researchers suggest zapping rocks in the lab can help geologists identify lightning-affected rocks to not only find signs of past storms but also interpret the magnetic fingerprint to tell where rocks formed. [JGR Solid Earth study]

Listening for wildfires with infrasound
Wildfires generate low-pitched sound imperceptible to humans but audible to infrasound detectors from as far as 1.8 miles (3 kilometers) away. A new study deployed arrays of sensors to listen for planned sagebrush fires and found that the sound of burning vegetation can be used to locate and track fires as they progress. This works even when the fire is more a smolder than a blaze and with as few as three infrasound detectors, although using more detectors allowed researchers to track fires from further away. Unlike satellite- and aircraft-based sensors, infrasound detectors can monitor continuously over large areas at low cost without being affected by smoke or tree cover, making them valuable to future fire monitoring, researchers say. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Algae sought sanctuary in dark dirt on Snowball Earth
A new study finds that prehistoric algae could have survived average temperatures as low as -60 degrees Celsius (-76 F) by clustering on patches of dark land, potentially explaining how photosynthetic organisms withstood Earth’s ‘snowball’ phases 600 million years ago. Earth has had at least two snowball periods when low atmospheric carbon dioxide and a dimmer sun created such cold conditions that almost the entire planet froze over. Researchers calculate that darker areas of remaining bare land absorbed just enough heat from the sun to melt any ice that crept into them from snowfall or the edges of glaciers. These snowmelt sanctuaries could have covered between 0.1% and 12% of the Earth, creating a way for algae to eke out an existence. [JGR Atmospheres study] 

Mapping the hidden landscape beneath Greenland’s ice
Researchers have peered through Greenland’s ice sheet to reveal a hidden landscape which records at least two million years of the island’s glacial history. Using satellite observations and measurements from the surface, a new study extrapolated lumps and bumps at the top of the ice to map out a vast network of frozen valleys and mountain ranges in the bedrock below. The map is so detailed that it’s possible to distinguish different rock formations through patterns in the valleys under the ice, as well as the now ice-covered mountains where Greenland’s modern ice sheet likely started to form. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

What Australian lakes showed us about Martian hydrology
Studying the hydrology of the Yilgarn Craton reveals how the Red Planet may have evolved. [Eos research spotlight] [Earth and Space Science study] 

Redesigning farmland through community collaboration in California
A community-led project in California shows how collaboration can reshape farmland to improve water resources, restore native plants, and create recreational space. [Eos editors’ highlight] [Community Science study] 

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7/23/2026: As Africa’s dry season shrinks, so does its wildfire burn area

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A firefighter shooting a jet of water at a fire amid a tangle of smoldering vegetation and clouds of smoke

A firefighter battling a 2017 grassland fire near Cape Town, South Africa. As the dry season across Africa shortens, wildfire-burned area is decreasing each year in both of the continent’s hemispheric regions. Credit: StevenTerblanche on Wikimedia Commons.

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As Africa’s dry season shortens, its wildfires burn less widely
Since 1990, Africa’s dry season has shortened enough that its wildfires burn millions of acres less land each year. The dry season’s arrival has lagged by roughly 1.75 days per decade from 1990 to now in the northern hemisphere and by 0.4 days per decade in the southern, with increased rainfall at the start of the dry season keeping plants and soils wetter for longer. Understanding how shifts in rainfall timing affect wildfires can help improve fire prediction and management efforts in the context of climate change, researchers say. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Electrification and energy efficiency could cool L.A. streets by 0.65 degrees Celsius
In the densest urban areas of Los Angeles, vehicles, buildings and human bodies generate enough heat to make their surroundings more than 4 degrees Celsius hotter. A new study projects that initiatives like switching to electric cars and making buildings more energy efficient would cool the city by 0.65 C on summer days. With cars contributing around half of Los Angeles’ current heat emissions, widespread electric vehicle adoption could help cool neighborhoods near highways as much as 0.95°C, reducing the public health threat of heat in the city. [JGR Atmospheres study]

If you live in the US, your rain may come from farther away than it used to
In watersheds of the Southwest and southern Great Plains of the United States, moisture in the atmosphere now travels from 30 to 50 miles farther away than it did 35 years ago before finally falling as rain, lingering in the sky an extra two to four hours. A greater portion of that rain now also originates from evaporation over the oceans, rather than over land. As the climate warms, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor for longer periods. Understanding changes in how water moves through the sky can help us understand where and how much of that water will become available for human use, researchers say. [Geophysical Research Letters study] [University of Wyoming press release]

Mine waste can boost wetland carbon storage
In the six years following a mining industry environmental disaster impacting Brazil’s Rio Doce estuary, researchers have found a silver lining — the soil in Rio Doce is changing, shifting towards minerals that hold onto carbon for longer. In 2017, the collapse of the Fundão dam unleashed the equivalent of 380,000 truckloads of iron-rich mine waste into waterways. Since then, researchers observed a 61% increase in carbon stably bonded to iron and a 25% increase in carbon trapped in other longer-lasting minerals. The researchers suggest that carefully managed addition of iron during wetland restoration projects could help other estuaries securely lock away more carbon in their soils. [JGR Biogeosciences study]

Coastal towns with eroding beaches may need to move inland sooner than thought
Rising seas and worsening storms have led many coastal communities to start adding sand to their eroding beaches, a strategy called “beach nourishment.” But this may only delay the inevitable. A case study of Hutchinson Island, Florida concluded that eventually retreating inland is the only way to meet criteria the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers commonly uses when funding beach nourishment projects. Balancing goals like maintaining recreational opportunities and mitigating housing damage could require Hutchinson Island residents to move inland in roughly fifty years — a few decades sooner than most studies would recommend, as the authors say previous research doesn’t fully account for uncertainties in how environmental and economic forces will change in that time. [Earth’s Future study]

Students enable widespread water monitoring in India
High school students and other volunteers monitored water for pollutants just as well as professionals. [Eos research spotlight] [Community Science study]

Making weather and climate information reach the communities that need it
Many at-risk communities remain unreached by forecasts due to barriers in language, access, and trust in information systems. A new study looks at how to overcome these. [Eos editors’ highlight] [Community Science study]

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7/16/2026: Climate change primed Italian glacier for fatal 2022 collapse

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A caved-in portion of a glacier on a steep, rocky mountain slope

Remnants of the 600-foot-wide Marmolada glacier in the Dolomites, Italy, after the 3 July, 2022, collapse that killed 11 mountaineers. Credit: Provincia autonoma di Trento via Wikimedia Commons

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Climate change primed Italian glacier for fatal 2022 collapse
On 3 July, 2022, ice collapsing from the Marmolada glacier in the Dolomites killed 11 mountaineers. A new study finds that unusually high temperatures in May and June weakened the ice and caused meltwater to build up under the glacier, which helped connect existing cracks to carve off a chunk of ice the size of 25 Olympic swimming pools. Researchers warn that climate change will weaken other glaciers, putting mountaineers and alpine communities at greater risk as temperatures rise. [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

  • See also: Post-Collapse Ice Cliff Backwasting at the Marmolada Glacier Observed by Terrestrial Radar Interferometry [JGR Earth Surface study] 
  • See also: Briton survives huge avalanche – and he filmed it [Sky News YouTube video] 

In a changing climate, too much rain threatens India’s monsoon crops
Seasonal monsoon rains are critical to agricultural productivity in India, delivering 80% of annual rainfall. But too much rain can be equally bad, particularly if it arrives in high intensity bursts, waterlogging crops and washing away nutrients. Monsoon rains are becoming increasingly erratic as the climate warms, shifting where and when rain falls, with more episodes of heavy rain. Modeling based on three decades of crop yields in India predicts yield declines in staple monsoon crops like cotton and soybean. Peanut, pearl millet and sorghum yields rise until they hit an optimum rain threshold around 2040, then sharply decline. Farmers will need region-specific solutions including resilient crop varieties, drainage and optimized sowing schedules to adapt to future monsoons. [Earth’s Future study] 

Expanding forests may worsen water stress in arid China
More than any other factor, forest growth in China reduced river flows from 1980 to 2020 in over 50 watersheds as forests expanded in many regions due to climate change and tree-planting efforts, according to a review of research. Trees draw water up through their roots and release it through their leaves, cooling the air and reducing flood risks but leaving less water for human use. This effect is strongest during the growing season, when plants guzzle the most water. New model simulations further showed that between 1980 and 2020, tree water uptake worsened water losses from climate change in over 130 Chinese water basins, impacting at least 17 basins even more than climate change itself. To balance water conservation with forest growth goals in water-stressed regions amid climate change, solutions may include prescribed burning, plantation thinning, and focusing on native tree restoration. [Water Resources Research study] 

Antarctic changes are slowing down global ocean circulation
New research shows the deepest layer of the Southern Ocean is shrinking faster than scientists realized, losing 3% of its volume in the waters nearest the pole between 2002 and 2023. This cold, dense Antarctic Bottom Water fills 40% of Earth’s oceans, driving currents and regulating climate as it flows off the seafloor shelf around Antarctica into other ocean basins. The rate of shrinking has quadrupled from 2002 to 2015, which researchers suggest could be linked to the rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice since 2016. [Australian Antarctic Program Partnership press release] [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Deer to blame for half of wild ruminants’ methane emissions
The digestive workings of ruminants — wild animals like deer, moose and llamas that ferment fibrous plants in their guts — create perfect conditions for bacteria to brew methane. A new study combining up-to-date estimates of global animal populations and gut gassiness found that the world’s wild ruminants contribute 3 million tons of methane to the atmosphere per year (around 38 times less than livestock) with more than 50% of global ruminant emissions coming from just six species of deer. [JGR Biogeosciences study] 

Patterned frozen soils get their shape from gravity and funky physics
An enigmatic feature of frozen soils can be explained in part by non-Newtonian fluid physics. Enter the Oobleck. [Eos Research Spotlight] [AGU Advances study] 

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7/2/2026: Rubber bits from your car tires could be shaping the clouds

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A single car tire illuminated with daylight from a side angle

The tiny specks of rubber that flake off from rolling car tires end up as the most abundant microplastic floating in the atmosphere, potentially altering cloud formation. Credit: Obi on Unsplash

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Rubber bits from your car tires could be shaping the clouds
The most common microplastics floating in the atmosphere come from car tires, which shed tiny bits of rubber as they roll around. Water in clouds condenses around those rubber particles and freezes into ice crystals. Researchers found tire particles instigate condensation better than other common microplastics by one to two orders of magnitude: even after the scientists blasted them with intense heat and light like they might experience on hot road surfaces, the rubber bits still outshone the competition. This phenomenon could play a surprisingly strong role in how clouds form, the team wrote, especially in bustling cities and as the number of vehicles rises worldwide. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Western US wind power to remain viable, even as climate change weakens winds
Wind power potential across the U.S. Mountain West may fall by an average of 8.8% from 1980 levels by 2099, new model analyses project, with losses of 12% in northern Nevada and southeastern Wyoming and greater seasonal declines in winter than in summer. Even so, wind power in most high-elevation windy regions will likely remain comfortably economically viable, largely thanks to how mountain topography itself helps sustain wind patterns. The researchers hope their detailed wind maps will help inform strategic wind farm planning as climate change progresses. [Earth’s Future study]

  • See also: Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitudes [Earth’s Future study]

US heat-related hospitalizations could double by 2040
Across the 53 largest metro areas of the contiguous U.S., hospitalizations due to heat-related illness could more than double from 2012 levels by 2040, reaching 217,000 to 237,000 per year depending on future greenhouse gas emissions. Associated healthcare costs would also more than double, topping $1 billion per year. The findings, based on model simulations accounting for health risk factors and various climate and demographic projections, also indicate geographical differences: the West, South, and Southwest may rank at the top for the most total heat-related illness cases each year, but regions less infrastructurally prepared for heat such as the Northeast and the Ohio Valley may suffer more cases per extreme heat event. [GeoHealth study]

Long droughts associated with upticks in US firearm suicides
New research comparing mortality and weather data identified a 9.4% spike in U.S. firearm suicides during severe droughts lasting over 12 months between 2000 and 2018. Firearm suicide risk peaked at 10.9% above non-drought conditions during the worsening half of exceptionally bad droughts. When rainfall drops below normal levels for a year or more, people face not only dry soils and dusty air but also devastating economic and emotional impacts. Though the study didn’t establish a causal relationship between drought and suicide, the link is strong enough that the researchers suggest including mental health support in future drought response to reduce impact on the most at-risk groups, including older people and residents of rural communities. [GeoHealth study]

Bioenergy crops an economic and environmental win-win on steep Midwestern slopes
Growing two perennial bioenergy crops, Miscanthus and switchgrass, instead of corn on the sloping farmlands of the upper Mississippi River Basin could bring both economic and environmental benefits, according to a study that simulated such a swap in the period from 1984 to 2018. The substitution curtailed the runoff of certain types of nitrogen and phosphorous by 93% on average, with the greatest effect on slopes over 4% — an important outcome for water quality, since that nutrient runoff winds up in waterways. On net, it also raked in a potential $24.2 billion over the simulation period, due to both biofuel production and pollution-control cost savings. [Earth’s Future study]

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6/25/2026: Beetle-infested snow gums release more climate-altering compounds

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A lone snow gum tree on a mountain slope covered in shrubs in boulders, overlooking rolling mountains in the distance under a partly cloudy sky

A lone snow gum tree (Eucalyptus pauciflora) in New South Wales, Australia. Wood-boring beetle infestations have caused dieback of snow gum forests across the Australian Alps. Credit: Toby Hudson on Wikimedia Commons

Featured Research 


Heatwave research roundup: 

  • Can AI predict rare ‘butterfly effect’ weather events? [JGR Machine Learning and Computation study] 
  • Extreme temperatures: prediction vs. observation [JGR Atmospheres study] 
  • Unprecedented Europe heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the historical and future context [Geophysical Research Letters study] 
  • Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges [Reviews of Geophysics review] 

Changing climate may bring more big floods to eastern US 
When intense rain falls over a large area all at once, flash floods in multiple catchments can combine into dangerous incidents like the 2023 Vermont floods, 2024 Hurricane Helene floods and 2024 Kentucky floods. In the contiguous United States, most extreme rainfall increasingly occurs during rare, larger-scale events rather than more common smaller events. In the eastern U.S., large events are also becoming more frequent, suggesting the region should prepare for outsized future flooding in the years ahead. [Geophysical Research Letters study]  

Texas’ flooding risks rise with climate change, especially for roads and railways
By area, 25% of the U.S. state of Texas is already highly flood-prone. As new risk maps based on high-res models reveal, that 25% also contains half the state’s roads and railways and 80% of its bridges. By 2100, climate change alone could grow that high-risk area by 10% to 12%, exposing up to 15% more of Texas’ transportation infrastructure to severe flooding — even without accounting for future construction there. Since economies and emergency services depend on roads and railways, flood damage to transportation can hit especially hard. The researchers also note that existing regulatory maps, including FEMA’s, don’t capture major flood risks in rapidly urbanizing zones, underscoring the need for forward-looking disaster planning. [Earth’s Future study]  

Beetle-infested snow gum trees let loose potentially climate-altering compounds 
When infested with wood-boring beetle larvae, snow gum tree trunks in the Australian Alps release a resin that gives off chemicals known as volatile organic compounds — seven times more so than when not infested. Given the beetles’ ongoing spread through the mountains’ snow gum forests, that could have implications for the region’s climate, researchers say: volatile organic compounds influence atmospheric chemistry in ways that can promote cloud formation, sunlight reflectivity, and wildfire risk. [JGR Biogeosciences study]  

Low-wind, low-sun ‘energy droughts’ challenge renewables in some regions
Rising adoption of solar and wind power have successfully averted the IPCC’s worst-case-scenario future, but not all regions have equally favorable weather conditions for renewables. A warming climate may exacerbate disparities by contributing to more days when low winds and minimal sunshine cause energy prices to spike. In densely populated southwestern China, already-limited renewable energy resources and low income levels make the region particularly vulnerable to this combination of extreme lows. Planning and investment are needed to offset the burden on less wealthy populations. [Earth’s Future study] 

This swirling ocean eddy shares food with its neighbors 
On a research cruise in the Mediterranean Sea, scientists discovered an odd phenomenon around a swirling eddy. The eddy sucks low-nutrient surface water down below the reach of sunlight, concentrating those few nutrients within itself without sending many back up. Instead, it then pushes those nutrients out towards its edges — meaning the most nutrient-poor waters the team encountered in fact house a hidden relay system for gifting nutrients to neighboring waters. Small-scale currents like these abound in the oceans, raising questions about how they might shape the distribution of nutrients at the base of marine food webs on larger scales, too. [Geophysical Research Letters study]  

Solar storms can affect Earth’s weather. A new study examines how.
New findings could help narrow down the mechanisms by which solar activity influences our weather. [Eos research spotlight] [Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Where methane is emitted matters for global burden
Methane emitted at higher latitude regions (Europe) tends to stay in the atmosphere longer, contributing to higher global concentrations than other regions (Asia, North America). [Eos editors’ highlight] [JGR Atmospheres study] 

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6/18/2026: Earth’s largest inland sea is drying up

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A sandy coastline of a tranquil sea curves off into the distance under a sunny sky with wispy clouds.

Shrinkage of the Caspian Sea (pictured), Earth’s largest landlocked water body, has invited comparisons to that of the Aral Sea since the 1960s, following Soviet Union irrigation efforts that diverted water from the two major rivers feeding it. Credit: Sasan Geranmehr, Wikimedia Commons

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As the Caspian Sea dries, saving it will require international action 
The Caspian Sea, Earth’s largest inland water body, has been steadily shrinking since the early ‘90s. According to satellite data and river measurements, that’s mostly because river inflow has tanked — especially from the Volga River — due to upstream water usage, reservoir building, and evaporation from regional climate warming. In contrast, rainfall has held steady and evaporation from the sea’s surface has grown little. Rising levels of chlorophyll-a, a green pigment often used as a measure of algae in water, also point to mounting ecological stress. Mitigating the sea’s ongoing desiccation, as well as the ecological and socioeconomic consequences, will demand coordinated international water management efforts, the researchers wrote. [Earth’s Future study]  

Clean air policies mean China sends less black carbon to the Arctic than 15 years ago
Arctic black carbon originating from China declined roughly 3% per year from 2009 to 2022, according to model simulations and measurements at Arctic observatories. Though China formerly emitted up to 30% of the black carbon winding up in the Arctic, national clean air policies have since limited those emissions, explaining most of the decline. Released from fossil fuel and biomass burning, black carbon can ride the wind from lower latitudes to the Arctic, where it warms the atmosphere and speeds up ice melting by darkening its surface. The results show that emissions controls in mid-latitude regions can mitigate these impacts. [Earth’s Future study] 

Rainfall losses from deforestation may transform parts, but not all, of the Amazon 
Because trees release water into the atmosphere that eventually falls as rain, deforestation can lessen rainfall in the Amazon. New research modeling how moisture moves through the atmosphere indicates that while rainfall losses from deforestation alone likely won’t topple the entire rainforest, they could transform certain areas into drier, savanna-like landscapes — especially in southwestern Amazonia, where rainfall depends heavily on upwind forests remaining intact. The researchers estimate this could happen to 81% of the state of Rondônia. Losing forests in western Amazonia and the eastern Amazonia-Cerrado border would constrict downwind rainfall the most, making these key conservation areas, while reforestation in eastern Pará could help to actively boost rainfall. [Geophysical Research Letters study]  

See also:

  • Deforestation lessens Amazon rainfall, and climate change hastens that process [press release] [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Pacific waves can travel for days, covering thousands of miles 
From the storms where they were born, the longest-traveling waves in the Pacific can carry on for more than 12,000 kilometers (over 7,400 miles) over the course of 12 days. The figure comes from a year of data gathered from roughly 300 wave buoys drifting around the Pacific Ocean. The data also agree well with computer models of swells, indicate that modern models can accurately simulate how swells propagate and how fast they lose energy. [JGR Oceans study]  

For coastal lowlands like the Fens, no single fix for climate adaptation 
The Fens, a coastal lowland of eastern England, faces a slew of interwoven threats from climate change, not just a few dominant ones. Sea level rise, flooding, drought, biodiversity loss and more are all on the table, making adaptation a complicated affair. Researchers used this region, with its history of intensive management and modifications for agriculture, as a case study for assessing how these risks might change and interact over the course of this century and found that a wide range of climate adaptations will be necessary. The team says their regionally focused risk assessment method may assist adaptation planners in other coastal lowlands facing compounding climate threats in the UK and beyond. [Earth’s Future study]  

As wildfires increase in the West, so does suppression spending
A new study projects the intertwined relationship between fires and the money spent fighting them. [Eos research spotlight] [Earth’s Future study] 

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6/11/2026: How long life on Earth could last

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The sun shining over the face of the Earth as seen from space, with Earth's surface in the foreground and the sun in the background

The sun will eventually grow too bright for Earthly life to persist, but exactly when remains uncertain. A new study suggests the limit may lie hundreds of millions of years farther down the road than earlier research estimated. Credit: NASA

AGU News

AGU opposes rule that would rewrite the terms of US Science
Last week, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget proposed a federal rule that would embed political control into the rules governing federal research funding in the United States. If finalized as written, this rule would give political appointees veto power over peer review, allow the government to cancel active grants mid-project with minimal justification, ban entire categories of science from federal funding, and restrict researchers’ ability to publish their work and attend scientific conferences. AGU President Brandon Jones urges the AGU community to submit a comment through AGU’s Action Center before 13 July. [video statement on YouTube] [written statement From the Prow] [AGU Action Center comment submission page]

Featured Research

Life on Earth could last hundreds of millions of years longer than once thought
As the sun steadily brightens with age, life on Earth will eventually end. Either the planet will get too hot for life, or the rising heat will increase the rate at which it stores CO2 in carbonate rocks — reducing the greenhouse effect but leaving plants too little CO2 for photosynthesis, effectively ending life anyway. Previous studies of the second scenario estimated life has another 1.35 billion years to go. But new model simulations of future climate scenarios indicate it could last up to 1.8 billion years from now, since some photosynthetic life may thrive even at low CO2 levels. In this case, life will last about as long as Earth’s oceans, which will eventually be lost to space as the brightening sun heats the planet. [JGR Atmospheres study]

Restoring peatlands can reduce fires, Indonesia’s efforts show
After draining and deforestation paved the way for widespread peatland wildfires in 2015, efforts to restore Indonesia’s peatlands may be paying off. Damming canals and pumping in groundwater to re-wet the land resulted in 2.6 fewer fires per square kilometer (6.7 per square mile) in restored peatlands than in unrestored ones in 2019, based on satellite measurements. Though climate also played a role, researchers estimated those efforts contributed 38% of the drop in fires across over 3,900 square kilometers (1,500 square miles) of restored peatland between 2015 and 2019 — both El Niño years, which tend to make Indonesia drier. The results show restoration should remain a priority, the researchers wrote, though climate variability may render its benefits invisible in some El Niño years, such as 2023. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

Young, planted forests gobble CO2 to get leafy fast, potentially helping climate
Across China, planted forests upped their leaf area about 66% faster than natural forests from 2000 to 2022, according to satellite data and machine learning analysis. Even when comparing forests of similar age and growing conditions, planted forests got leafier 4.6% faster nationally, with an even greater difference in mixed and evergreen forests. That’s partly because those planted forests are younger and respond more strongly to rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere, using it to grow more vigorously. Although natural forests start outpacing planted ones once the latter hit around 40 years of age, researchers said the results still highlight how planted forests can help absorb CO2 to support climate action. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions slowed sea ice loss
Arctic sea ice has been shrinking over the past four decades, but after 2000, the retreat sped up abruptly. Sunlight-blocking aerosols from the 1982 El Chichón and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions counteracted the ice-melting effect of greenhouse gases during the 80s and 90s; if the volcanoes had not erupted, ice would have diminished 1.5 times faster before the turn of the millennium. Climate models accounting for both human and natural influences predict the arrival of ice-free Arctic summers decades earlier than those that only incorporate human emissions, around 2049 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels. This timeframe generally agrees with estimates based on sea ice thickness. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

In some cases, hurricanes may help salt marshes withstand sea level rise
In 2017, Hurricane Irma dumped up to eight centimeters of new sediment in some coastal salt marshes, according to an analysis of 37 sites across four marshes tucked behind barrier islands from Florida to South Carolina. The finding suggests that although storms often erode salt marshes, they can also — under the right conditions of exposure, location and wind and wave strength — help build them back up. When this occurs, it makes salt marshes more resilient to sea level rise, which can kill off salt marsh plants via long periods of inundation. [JGR Earth Surface study]

Mangroves may be losing their grip on carbon storage as sea levels rise
Locally, mangroves can sometimes adapt to rising seas, but global trends look troubling. [Eos research spotlight] [Earth’s Future study]

Rocket launches and reentries harm Earth’s ozone layer
Solid-state fuels—recently used to help launch astronauts to the Moon for the first time in decades—appear to be the fuel type with the most detrimental effects on the ozone. [Eos research spotlight] [Earth’s Future study]

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6/4/2026: Storms on Titan can make 10-foot waves of methane and ethane

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Vapors rise from the surface of a rocky sea on an alien world, with mountains in the distance and planetary bodies floating in the hazy sky above

An artist’s rendering of the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan. Though Titan is the only other world in our solar system with standing lakes and seas, its liquid bodies are made of methane and ethane, not water. Credit: Stan Richard; NASA

AGU News 

AGU opposes rule that would rewrite the terms of US Science
Last week, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget proposed a federal rule that would embed political control into the rules governing federal research funding in the United States. If finalized as written, this rule would give political appointees veto power over peer review, allow the government to cancel active grants mid-project with minimal justification, ban entire categories of science from federal funding, and restrict researchers’ ability to publish their work and attend scientific conferences. AGU President Brandon Jones urges the AGU community to submit a comment through AGU’s Action Center before 13 July. [statement From the Prow] 

Featured Research 

Storms on Titan can make 10-foot waves on methane and ethane seas
Saturn’s moon Titan has lakes and seas of methane and ethane, making it the only other world in our solar system with standing liquids on its surface. New simulations show that the same wind speed generates waves 30 times larger on Titan’s liquid bodies than on Earth’s. While daily winds on Titan are too weak to coax out any waves at all, stronger winds from spring and summer storms likely make waves up to about 1.5 feet high, on average, and up to around 10 feet high when storm winds blow their hardest. Based on their direction, storm waves likely sculpted the eastern shore of Ontario Lacus, a lake in the south of Titan. [JGR Planets study] 

Earth’s ballooning energy imbalance locks in more warming than expected
At the top of Earth’s atmosphere, the planet is gaining more energy from the Sun than it loses to space, an imbalance felt as warming temperatures on the ground. The gap is widening; the energy differential has more than doubled since 2001. Satellite measurements show energy accumulating in the climate system much faster than models predict. This means the ocean is absorbing more heat than expected and more future warming is locked in. If global societies were to restrict greenhouse gas emissions to very low levels starting now, the warming trend would not turn around before the 2040s, more than 10 years later than previous estimates. Surface temperatures would continue to rise as the extra heat already absorbed was distributed throughout Earth’s systems. [Geophysical Research Letters study]

See also:  

  • Global warming has accelerated in the last decade [press release] [Geophysical Research Letters study] 
  • Ocean will burp accumulated heat in an ideal cooling world [AGU Advances study]
  • Earth’s energy imbalance more than doubled in recent decades [AGU Advances commentary]

Air pollution may raise hospitalization risk for type 2 diabetics with other conditions 
Short-term air pollution exposure puts those with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, hypertension or peripheral vascular disease at greater risk of hospitalization. An analysis of over 92,000 hospital admissions of type 2 diabetics in China’s Sichuan Province, over half of which also had one of the comorbidities, showed air pollution raised hospitalization risk 1.5% to 4.3% depending on the comorbidity, especially around six to seven days after exposure. The resulting hospital costs totaled tens of millions of Chinese Yuan (millions of U.S. dollars), highlighting the impact of air pollution not only on vulnerable people’s health but also on healthcare expenses. [GeoHealth study] 

Which regions of the U.S. guzzle the most water per household, and why
Two months of monitoring by smart water meters in over 33,000 households across 39 major American cities bore these insights: households in the southwest, south, and northern Midwest used the most water, while those in coastal regions, especially in California, used the least. Behaviors — especially toilet flushing and shower time — explained most of the differences in water use per capita, while the efficiency of appliances, especially clothes washers, made the most impact between households. Sustainable urban water management should target both areas for improvement, the researchers wrote. [Water Resources Research study] 

See also: 

  • Toilets and showers make up the vast majority of household water use [press release][Earth’s Future study] 
  • Faced with water restrictions, many Americans would willingly pay to reuse water [newsletter item][Water Resources Research study] 

Uncovering the best conditions for finding hydrogen fuel in mountains
Erosion may augment the amount of hydrogen naturally stored in mountain ranges like the Alps and the Pyrenees, which could help humans pinpoint where to drill for the gas as a clean energy alternative to fossil fuels. When rocks from deep in Earth’s mantle get lifted towards the surface as mountains form, they pass through a suitable temperature range in which they can react with water to produce hydrogen. Erosion of the mountains can help bring those rocks towards the surface, making that process more efficient, new computer simulations suggest. Too much erosion, however, can bring them towards the surface so quickly that they spend less time in the temperature range necessary for the hydrogen-producing reaction. Excessive erosion can also wear away the porous rock layers that might otherwise store the newly made hydrogen. [JGR Solid Earth study] 

The surprising link between a cold blob and the Indian monsoon
Climate processes that at first glance appear separate can actually be intimately linked, modeling shows. [Eos research spotlight][AGU Advances study] 

Rivers in the Antarctic sky, captured in 3D
A new study shows that atmospheric rivers may be responsible for up to 90% of Antarctica’s annual precipitation. [Eos research spotlight][Geophysical Research Letters study] 

Model of complex blanket bog improves prediction of peat expansion
Peat expansion is tightly coupled to the global climate cycle. As a nature-based solution to climate change, we need to know how peatlands will respond to different climate scenarios. [Eos editors’ highlight][Water Resources Research study] 

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